[cbrown2009]

I hope part of this is the rumoured Stouffville weekend service.

If my math is generally right, there are currently some 2,328 total train trips in a 7 day week. (Yes I went through each schedule and counted!) Even going back to April 2019 as the paper suggests, 16% works out to be well over 300 weekly trips. I don't know where they could add that many trips per week without both the Stouffville and Kitchener lines getting some significant added services, like, say, a full hourly weekend schedule which could possibly add in the neighbourhood of 120 trips combined for Sat & Sun. Add some more service to Barrie Line on weekends, infill some counter-peak service (plausible but highly unlikely by April) and squeeze in a few more rush hour trips across the system... Not to get anyone's hopes up, my own included, but hopefully such an increase would include both Stouffville and Kitchener weekend service.

 

[crs1026]

^Not long back, Verster was touting some powerpoint slides that expressed growth in terms of seat-miles. If that is the basis for this latest projection, trains to Niagara and Kitchener will add more seatmiles than anywhere rlse. Extending Aldershot trains to West Harbour will hardly move the needle... but new trains to Confederation will impact the stats more.

- Paul

 

[crs1026]

Here's a little flight of fancy following on the above. ML says they will grow GO by 6.1% by 2021. I took the current schedule and broke it out by train-miles, being careful where some trains turn back en route eg Oakville vs Aldershot. Trainmiles is a little closer to the seat-miles metric that ML has used recently to quantify their expansion progress, but for simplicity (and lack of better data) I assumed that every train has the same number of seats.

The current schedule represents 78,862 trainmiles per week. The recent Board Report's plan to increase by 6.1% by 2021represents an increase of 4798 trainmiles per week or roughly 685 train-miles per day based on 7 day service.

Where might those trainmiles be added? I did a little comparison of some options that some have been hoped for in this thread. The chart is below.

It's interesting to look at each service addition as a % of current total trains per week. Opening Bloomington station will do very little to add trainmiles and hene seatmiles. Hourly LSW to West Harbour, while not that long an extension, adds more. Implementing weekend service to Mount Pleasant or Mount Joy will add a ton of train/seatmiles towards the target, assuming they run 12-car trains. However - if they run 8-car trains, the seat-mile increment reduces by a factor of 33% to 50%. A single added round trip to Kitchener and Niagara adds a significant number of train-miles.

Bottom line - ML has to do more than just add a train here, a train there to reach its expansion goals - one would think this means that some of the service additions we've hoped for may indeed arrive by 2021.

- Paul

 

[raptor]

Here's a little flight of fancy following on the above. ML says they will grow GO by 6.1% by 2021. I took the current schedule and broke it out by train-miles, being careful where some trains turn back en route eg Oakville vs Aldershot. Trainmiles is a little closer to the seat-miles metric that ML has used recently to quantify their expansion progress, but for simplicity (and lack of better data) I assumed that every train has the same number of seats.

The current schedule represents 78,862 trainmiles per week. The recent Board Report's plan to increase by 6.1% by 2021represents an increase of 4798 trainmiles per week or roughly 685 train-miles per day based on 7 day service.

Where might those trainmiles be added? I did a little comparison of some options that some have been hoped for in this thread. The chart is below.

It's interesting to look at each service addition as a % of current total trains per week. Opening Bloomington station will do very little to add trainmiles and hene seatmiles. Hourly LSW to West Harbour, while not that long an extension, adds more. Implementing weekend service to Mount Pleasant or Mount Joy will add a ton of train/seatmiles towards the target, assuming they run 12-car trains. However - if they run 8-car trains, the seat-mile increment reduces by a factor of 33% to 50%. A single added round trip to Kitchener and Niagara adds a significant number of train-miles.

Bottom line - ML has to do more than just add a train here, a train there to reach its expansion goals - one would think this means that some of the service additions we've hoped for may indeed arrive by 2021.

- Paul

View attachment 202777

It's 16.1%, not 6.1%. And it's by April 2020, not '21.

 

[crs1026]

It's 16.1%, not 6.1%. And it's by April 2020, not '21.

So it is. I misread! That’s really quite ambitious.

The big-ticket item that could boost that would be filling in the gaps on LSW 15 minute service.

I got the mileage on West Harbour wrong, and forgot to look at Confederation, but the other numbers are probably good enough.

- Paul

 

[smallspy]

I got the mileage on West Harbour wrong, and forgot to look at Confederation, but the other numbers are probably good enough.

- Paul

You can probably forget about Confederation for now. It looks like they have shelved the construction of the station pending a "private sector partner".

GO has shifted the operation of the 12 Niagara Falls bus to service the future station location until the station actually does get built.

Dan

 

[crs1026]

You can probably forget about Confederation for now. It looks like they have shelved the construction of the station pending a "private sector partner".

GO has shifted the operation of the 12 Niagara Falls bus to service the future station location until the station actually does get built.

Dan

There was a press release that said it would be a “self service” station in the interim - I took that to mean that the Niagara and West Harbour peak runs would stop there, they have to pass it anyways on the way to layover or the Falls. I can’t see more than that happening there until GO builds its own track.

40 trains per week x 6 new TM’s/train is a very small increase in system capacity, although those using the mini-station will appreciate it.

- Paul

- Paul

 

[Northern Light]

So it is. I misread! That’s really quite ambitious.

The big-ticket item that could boost that would be filling in the gaps on LSW 15 minute service.

I got the mileage on West Harbour wrong, and forgot to look at Confederation, but the other numbers are probably good enough.

- Paul

There is also the option of introducing 15M service on LSE/LSW in the evenings and/or on weekends.

Currently its 15m only during weekday, mid-day. (and as noted with some gaps here and there)

 

[crs1026]

There is also the option of introducing 15M service on LSE/LSW in the evenings and/or on weekends.

Currently its 15m only during weekday, mid-day. (and as noted with some gaps here and there)

True enough. And also interleaving Bramalea trains with the hourly Mount Pleasant service, to bring it up to 15 or 30 minute headways, once the tunnel is completed. And perhaps 30 minute service to Unionville once that double tracking is further along.

- Paul

 

[robmausser]

There is also the option of introducing 15M service on LSE/LSW in the evenings and/or on weekends.

Currently its 15m only during weekday, mid-day. (and as noted with some gaps here and there)

As someone who takes the LSE train on weekends and evenings, 15 minute service would be completely unnecessary and underused. I'm usually have a railcar to myself as it is with 30 minutes.

I could only see if maybe they used 6 car trains, but you still have to pay for the same crew, etc to do it.

 

[gweed123]

As someone who takes the LSE train on weekends and evenings, 15 minute service would be completely unnecessary and underused. I'm usually have a railcar to myself as it is with 30 minutes.

I could only see if maybe they used 6 car trains, but you still have to pay for the same crew, etc to do it.

I'd rather see more express runs on weekends than bumping up to 15 minutes, personally.

 

[mdrejhon]

You can probably forget about Confederation for now. It looks like they have shelved the construction of the station pending a "private sector partner".

Does that include postponing unmanned platform operation (like LongBranch / YorkUniversity, except without wickets and without station building)?

Some sources said Metrolinx wanted to do an interim unmanned station instead of the original Liberal-announced plan.

More trains coming to West Harbour GO

Buses will be coming to Confederation station by end of 2019, however, no date revealed for rail service.

www.thespec.com

"As for the Confederation station, Metrolinx is moving ahead with the design and construction of a "self-serve" rail station — a smaller station, without a wicket, where riders can purchase tickets from a machine and buy and update their PRESTO cards, said Verster."

I took that to mean postponing the station building -- and scaling back top concrete & bus shelters facing the track, with Presto machines -- to arrive within two years. Presumably it means it can go dormant for a while before they suddenly build a concrete platform.

I would not be surprised if it stays dormant till 2020, while Metrolinx first worked to design the scaled-back Confederation platform. Assuming this does not require a re-EA, theoretically they could build the platform by 2020, though they did say the "over the next two years" ballpark.

 

[crs1026]

^It will be interesting to see what a mini-station consists of. That particular location is pretty autocentric. Even if there is no main structure or accessible tunnels for the time being, there will have to be a full parking lot with lighting, curbs, etc. If the parking is spread across both sides of the ROW, there will have to be a minimum of one tunnel. So it’s still a hefty investment.

- Paul

 

[Richard White]

^It will be interesting to see what a mini-station consists of. That particular location is pretty autocentric. Even if there is no main structure or accessible tunnels for the time being, there will have to be a full parking lot with lighting, curbs, etc. If the parking is spread across both sides of the ROW, there will have to be a minimum of one tunnel. So it’s still a hefty investment.

- Paul

There does not necessarily have to be a tunnel if there is a bridge over the tracks.

 

[blaixx]

^It will be interesting to see what a mini-station consists of. That particular location is pretty autocentric. Even if there is no main structure or accessible tunnels for the time being, there will have to be a full parking lot with lighting, curbs, etc. If the parking is spread across both sides of the ROW, there will have to be a minimum of one tunnel. So it’s still a hefty investment.

Yeah, no doubt. I'm sceptical about how well used this station will be given how long it takes trains to go around Lake Ontario through Hamilton. I'd think many people would still prefer to park at Burlington GO to save time.

"He said the station’s revised design, which will be tendered out later this year, will include island platform, with canopies and accessible platform; pedestrian tunnel; direct stair access from the platform to Centennial Parkway; and additional parking spaces."

Metrolinx stalls Confederation GO station, while enhancing West Harbour

'It is still our plans to provide rail and bus service to Confederation station,' said Metrolinx President and CEO Phil Verster.

www.hamiltonnews.com