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The greenbelt squeeze

There are growing concerns that Ontario’s push to curb urban sprawl and intensify development has taken off with unexpected vigour.

Condo development is in overdrive in the downtown core while construction of new single-family homes in the regions has “run out of gas†— down 57 per cent in the last decade, veteran housing experts are quietly warning.

Land prices are skyrocketing as developers, keen to cash in on the biggest condo boom in the world, are engaging in “extremely competitive†bidding for the dwindling number of prime development sites left along subway lines.

At the same time, a “perfect storm†of high development surcharges by municipalities and a shortage of develop-ready land in the outlying regions has seen housing starts decline so dramatically, they now lag far behind demand.

The numbers are so confusing and worrisome, most of the discussion about what to do — if anything — is just going on behind the scenes at this point, although some will feature prominently Thursday at the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s annual Toronto Housing Outlook Conference.

“Maybe we need to rethink what high density means,†says George Carras, a well-respected watcher of the housing market.

“I wouldn’t say the (province’s intensification) policy hasn’t worked. But there may have some unintended consequences.â€

The biggest one, developers and housing experts fear, is that housing is already becoming unaffordable and will become completely out of reach when interest rates start rising.

Despite all the construction cranes on the Toronto horizon and suburban homes still springing up in the outlying regions, the total supply of new housing in the GTA — from condos to detached homes — is down about 32 per cent now over a decade ago, says Carras.

There are just 4,000 so-called develop-ready sites for single-family homes left in the GTA now, down from about 12,000 in 2007, he notes. And most of those are in far-flung areas of Durham such as Clarington, too far for most to commute.

The effects are now being felt from two provincial policies introduced five years ago — the greenbelt policy which set strict limits on how far the GTA could sprawl and the Places to Grow policy which encouraged higher density development.

What no one anticipated at the time was that the global financial meltdown would send investors scurrying to safe havens like Canada, looking for the keys to hard assets like real estate.

That, and the “urbanization trend†that’s taking hold right across the country — young professionals, in particular, wanting to live close to work — has sent demand for high-rise soaring, says John O’Bryan, vice chairman of commercial real estate company CB Richard Ellis.

A decade ago, some 35,000 homes — detached, semi-detached and townhouses — were being built across the GTA, says Carras. That’s now down to 15,000 a year.

While high-rise has risen from an average of just 12,000 to about 20,000, that increase of 8,000 units doesn’t begin to make up for the shortfall of new homes, especially given immigration which is seeing about 100,000 new people a year migrate to the GTA, says Carras.

The Building Industry and Land Development Assoc. (BILD) has warned that “regulatory inertia†is also contributing to housing shortages and escalating land and housing prices. Municipalities in the GTA have asked that some 10,500 hectares of so-called “whitebelt†lands — lots between the existing cities and the greenbelt — be freed up for development.

But provincial approvals and Ontario Municipal Board reviews have slowed the process and it could be two more years before major parcels are released, says Joe Vaccaro, acting president of BILD.

Right now the “active inventory†of low-rise housing in the GTA stands at just 6,000, says Carras, a record low from historic levels of about 24,000.

Already the region is at risk of an affordability crisis that will only worsen if supply doesn’t pick up and interest rates do, notes economist Will Dunning in a recently released report Restricted Land Supply and Rising Housing Costs in the GTA, done for the Residential Construction Council of Ontario.

House prices have risen 78 per cent in the GTA from 2000 to 2010 — on average 5.9 per cent per year, well above the 2.1 per cent inflation and 2.7 per cent wage increases during the same period.
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http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1080425--the-greenbelt-squeeze?bn=1
 
News Release

Ontario Consulting on Greenbelt Expansion
December 7, 2017

Province Seeking Public Input to Protect Important Water Resources
Ontario is taking action to protect important water resources in the Greater Golden Horseshoe by launching a public consultation on expanding the province's Greenbelt.
The province is considering expanding the Greenbelt to include areas in the outer ring of the Greater Golden Horseshoe, an area that is experiencing significant growth and is under pressure from urban development.

The public, municipalities, conservation authorities, stakeholders, and Indigenous communities and organizations are invited to provide input on a study area for potential Greenbelt expansion. The consultation comprises seven areas most in need of protection, including moraines, cold water streams and wetlands located in the outer ring of the Greater Golden Horseshoe. This area also includes valuable water resources that communities rely on for their water supply.

Comments may be submitted online, through the Environmental Registry or at an open house in January-February 2018.

Protecting water resources by growing the Greenbelt is part of Ontario's plan to create fairness and opportunity during this period of rapid economic change. The plan includes a higher minimum wage and better working conditions, free tuition for hundreds of thousands of students, easier access to affordable child care, and free prescription drugs for everyone under 25 through the biggest expansion of medicare in a generation.


QUICK FACTS
  • The hydrological systems under consideration provide high-quality drinking water, manage wastewater and stormwater, sustain plants and animals, and support climate change mitigation including reducing flood risks. They also provide a competitive advantage for industries, such as agriculture and the agri-food sectors.
  • The recent review of four land use plans for the Greater Golden Horseshoe highlighted the importance of protecting water resources in the Greater Golden Horseshoe.
  • The Advisory Panel for the Co-ordinated Land Use Planning Review recommended that the province lead a process to grow Ontario’s Greenbelt to protect areas of ecological and hydrological significance where urbanization should not occur.
  • Ontario’s Greenbelt permanently protects roughly 810,000 hectares of green space, farmland, vibrant communities, forests, wetlands and watersheds.
  • Approximately 10,000 hectares were added to the Greenbelt in 2017, including 21 new urban river valleys and associated coastal wetland areas that connect to Lake Ontario.
  • The Greater Golden Horseshoe is one of the fastest growing regions in North America, with a population projected to reach about 13.5 million by 2041.
 
Northern Light said:
Unacceptable.

Must be stopped.

Period.
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And it wont be stopped since this clown will get away with everything due to his majority government. That and that face that 3/4th of the people who voted for him wont even know the implications of these latest moves, and what would happen if development even occured on the Greenbelt.

The easiest way to hammer it to their heads would be this way: Do you think your 2 hour commute on the 401 is long? Well how would you feel about that same 2 hour commute becoming 4 hours, because that's just one of the implications of making such a radical change like this.
 
Amare said:
And it wont be stopped since this clown will get away with everything due to his majority government. That and that face that 3/4th of the people who voted for him wont even know the implications of these latest moves, and what would happen if development even occured on the Greenbelt.

The easiest way to hammer it to their heads would be this way: Do you think your 2 hour commute on the 401 is long? Well how would you feel about that same 2 hour commute becoming 4 hours, because that's just one of the implications of making such a radical change like this.
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From the moment he won the party leadership, I called Dumpster Fire. And nothing he has done since has proven me wrong.

We have 3.5 more years of this.
 
Anyone who thinks he won't get re-elected is fooling themselves or doesn't know the voters well.
 
Avenue said:
Anyone who thinks he won't get re-elected is fooling themselves or doesn't know the voters well.
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I predict he will get re-elected, but will get pummeled when he goes for a 3rd term.

As for the Greenbelt. What were people expecting? They will spin this as a way to tackle the affordable housing crisis. Maybe all those Toronto NIMBY's shouldn't have fought so hard against 'density creep' in their neighbourhoods.

Besides, aren't they planning to go ahead with a new Vaughan to Milton highway? You know they won't build that without acres of subdivisions of detached single family homes to compliment it.
 
A quick summary of the new legislation:

The legislation would allow municipal councils to pass what is literally called an "open for business by-law", which would exempt a development from essentially all planning regulations. This development would have to be an employment use, not residential. The by-law would allow the development to ignore all relevant official plan policies, provincial policy statements, zoning by-laws, provincial planning documents, many environmental regulations, and more. It would essentially be an "instant approval" mechanism that would allow a municipality to instantly approve a development regardless of its effects.

While I don't foresee municipalities like Toronto using this very often, if at all, it will likely be implemented in smaller communities around the province, whenever a large employer offers to open in the municipality. It isn't good news.

Something like an amazon warehouse could offer to open up in a small town, but build on greenbelt land, and get approvals in a matter of days. It would be ridiculous.
 
Imagine a Doug Ford-type mayor using this legislation to put an oil refinery in the Port Lands or paint factories on employment lands next to condos in the Junction.
 
Is it clear that this is for employment uses only? It says, essentially, it has to be job-creating but the language seems pretty vague. If some residential developer wants to point out his subdivision on the Oak Ridges Moraine will generate 2,500 construction jobs, will that be sufficient for Council and/or the Minister? I'm personally not clear on that though one would hope (if one can hope with these guys) that, yes, the intent is only employment lands.

Either way, it's a straight-up veto of every significant provincial land use policy which, you know, is troubling.

Seems to me a bit early to be saying Ford'll be gone or re-elected in 3.5 years. Yeah, both other parties have some work to do but at this rate, he might piss off everyone in the province by next summer.
 
If this move actually created affordable housing, I would be impressed. Instead, it will create whatever housing the developers can make the most money with.

I wonder how transit friendly all that new housing will be.....(not).

This move is far more depressing than the thought of just cancelling an LRT or building a subway to nowhere. It’s an absolutely evil thing that expresses contempt for the idea of placing limits on moneymaking. It removes any pretense that Ford is for the “little guy”.
Let alone that it’s a reversal of an election promise - one that was only made after Ford got caught making secret promises to developers (and then reversing himself). The guy does not comprehend the meaning of ‘integrity’.

- Paul
 
TJ O'Pootertoot said:
Is it clear that this is for employment uses only? It says, essentially, it has to be job-creating but the language seems pretty vague. If some residential developer wants to point out his subdivision on the Oak Ridges Moraine will generate 2,500 construction jobs, will that be sufficient for Council and/or the Minister? I'm personally not clear on that though one would hope (if one can hope with these guys) that, yes, the intent is only employment lands.

Either way, it's a straight-up veto of every significant provincial land use policy which, you know, is troubling.

Seems to me a bit early to be saying Ford'll be gone or re-elected in 3.5 years. Yeah, both other parties have some work to do but at this rate, he might piss off everyone in the province by next summer.
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Isn't residential also technically 'employment' as it provides construction and various trades employment, among others?
 
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