[cabbagetowner]

we would be very lucky if the market stays flat. it's going to be hard to dodge a global bullet of this size. I think the june 2010 numbers will be less.

 

[Eug]

I think it's quite reasonable to expect a pullback. In fact, I'm surprised it hasn't happened earlier (fall 2008/winter 2009 notwithstanding).

However, I also think the sky-is-falling hyperbole a few espouse is unwarranted.

In other words, if you're hoping for a 30% crash, you might be disappointed. However, those hoping for gradual moderate increases over the next couple years might be disappointed, too.

 

[dpylyp]

I would call it a seller's market

west mls # of listings available was 7310
Number of Sold units 4097


Previous months have different ratios but if 1.78 homes is available for each sale, What type of Market are we in?

The inventory ratios in December through March soared to 7.5:1

As the public re evaluates the cost of borrowing, in relation to the additional HST starting next year, we could have a strong continuing summer and fall market.

 

[Ken]

I don't know if it's clearly a seller's market yet. I think the real estate market is at the turning point. If you look at the graph for N03 detached (where I track the records), the house price uptrend is 'kinda' broken (house price below the red line since nov 08). To me it seems that the house price will drop further.

 

[simuls]

As the public re evaluates the cost of borrowing, in relation to the additional HST starting next year, we could have a strong continuing summer and fall market.

On June 18, the Liberals announced that the HST will be a progressive tax and will only be on the amount of your purchase price above $400 000, so the tax burden, while still there, has been severely mitigated. Also, considering it only applies to new construction, i'm not sure this will affect many people's decision to buy. Chances are if you can afford $500 000, the extra $6000 in tax won't really matter.

 

[cdr108]

On June 18, the Liberals announced that the HST will be a progressive tax and will only be on the amount of your purchase price above $400 000, so the tax burden, while still there, has been severely mitigated. Also, considering it only applies to new construction, i'm not sure this will affect many people's decision to buy. Chances are if you can afford $500 000, the extra $6000 in tax won't really matter.

although you and most members here may know the HST applies to only new construction, i'm sure there are alot of potential purchasers that don't and are being played with their ignorance.

it's similar to the TLLT ... alot of ppl rushed in to buy to avoid the tax, thereby causing a temporary spike in demand and bidding wars.
come January, the average/median value of properties was actually lower than the summer.

i believe the same is occurring now, plus some are buying based on low interest rates (but buying at high prices).

 

[andrejeffry]

This blog sez Toronto housing suffers from supply shortage, that's what driving the price.

What happens if Toronto housig market overheats?

http://www.movesmartly.com/2009/07/alarming-imbalance-in-torontos-real-estate-.html

 

[Eug]

Some would say that the Toronto market is already overheated.

With prices up and sales up too, I think more people will start to bring their homes into the market for sale. That may help ease things a bit (with fewer bidding wars bumping up prices). However, if interest rates remain low, sales will still likely be brisk.

Interestingly, if you take his statements at graph at face value, that would suggest there is heavy pressure for prices to rise significantly.

I'm not sure I buy that, since we're getting to the part of the year where sales traditionally cool somewhat, and interest rates have risen a bit. Plus, like I said I think more people will start bringing their properties to market, increasing available inventory.

 

[The Condo Observer]

" alarming imbalance in toronto real estate "

According to this analysis, it might not be such a great thing:

http://www.movesmartly.com/2009/07/alarming-imbalance-in-torontos-real-estate-.html


Add this to continued job losses, rising interest rates....

 

[daveto]

I've been thinking about this some more.

At the beginning of June, 5yr fixed rates went up 10-15%. If someone looking to buy is pre-approved at the old rates (90 days?), then they've got a real motivation to buy within that window of time. Use it or lose it, correct?

That would suggest that we'll see noticibly lower figures in August, after the rush to beat the expiring lower rate guarantees ends in July.

So I'm going out on a limb and predicting that unless rates go back down, TO sales will hit a brick wall in August.

Support for the "use it or lose it" theory about the conversion ratios for the soon to expire sub-4% pre-approvals.

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.c.../07/pre-approval-conversion-volumes-jump.html

and full article here
http://www.mbabc.ca/files/mortgage_lenders_report_huge_increase_6_09.pdf