jks
Continuous Lurker
Here's from the G&M
Should John Tory run for mayor again? An adviser with his best interests at heart would probably say, “You'd have to be out of your mind.â€
Mr. Tory has been through the mill in the past few years. He lost his first bid to be mayor to David Miller in 2003. He lost his only shot at being premier of Ontario when he backed government funding for religious schools, a disastrous miscalculation that ensured his defeat by Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty in 2007. He lost his own seat in that vote, after unwisely abandoning a safe seat in the Orangeville area to run in Toronto's Don Valley West. Finally, on March 5, he lost a by-election that would have returned him to the legislature, costing him his job as Conservative leader.
After absorbing all those blows, why would be want to run for office again in late 2010, risking another humiliating loss that would end his political hopes for good? One answer is that, this time, he could win.
Mr. Miller is vulnerable. He won the 2003 vote only narrowly, with 43 per cent of the vote to Mr. Tory's 38 per cent. He did better in 2006, taking 57 per cent, but a weak opponent, Jane Pitfield, gave him a run for his money with 32 per cent. Incumbency is not destiny in Toronto. Just ask Barbara Hall, who went into the 2003 vote as front-runner and ended up taking only 9 per cent of the votes.
Any candidate running against the mayor would have a D-Day-sized pile of ammunition supplied by Mr. Miller himself: a series of new taxes, from the land-transfer tax to the vehicle-registration fee, that have burdened Toronto ratepayers in the midst of a recession; a failure to control costs that has forced the city to raid its reserves again and again; a road-repair backlog of more than $300-million that has left many streets full of cracks and potholes; a so-called “war on the car†that has left motorists fuming as city council approves new bike lanes and transit lines.
The trouble is that none of Mr. Miller's city council rivals has a big enough cannon to make use of all that ammo. The councillors who are considering a run against him – Karen Stintz, Denzil Minnan-Wong, Michael Thompson, possibly Rob Ford – lack the name recognition, the fundraising clout and the simple gravitas to topple a high-profile mayor.
Mr. Tory has all those things and more. He ran an excellent campaign in 2003 that showed he has both the passion and the policy smarts for the job. As a former Rogers Communications executive, commissioner of the Canadian Football League and leading city lawyer, he understands the private sector and what it can contribute to the city. He knows that an organization, public or private, has to live within its means.
As a top fundraiser for the United Way and other charities, he understands the needs of the disadvantaged, too. This is no slash-and-burn conservative Neanderthal, but the quintessential Red Tory. As a political back-roomer since his 20s, he has the contacts and the skills to work with higher levels of government and get what Toronto needs. To top it off, he is admired by those who know him for his integrity and sense of fair play. Mr. Tory would be a dream candidate, a credible, moderate, experienced right-of-centre challenger to the pink-hued regime of Mr. Miller and his backers at city hall.
Will he risk it? No one would blame him for declining. For all his faults, Mr. Miller is a strong mayor with plenty of energy, lots of support and a sincere desire to improve the city. Mr. Tory comes with liabilities, including questionable political judgment, and a recent record of failure that would be hard to shake.
But for all his troubles, Mr. Tory, 55, still has a lot to offer. He cares about public service. He is deeply attached to the city where he was born, raised and educated. He could make a superb mayor.
So, yes, the adviser guarding his interests would tell him to take a pass. But the adviser with the city's interests at heart would say: Go for it, John.
Should John Tory run for mayor again? An adviser with his best interests at heart would probably say, “You'd have to be out of your mind.â€
Mr. Tory has been through the mill in the past few years. He lost his first bid to be mayor to David Miller in 2003. He lost his only shot at being premier of Ontario when he backed government funding for religious schools, a disastrous miscalculation that ensured his defeat by Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty in 2007. He lost his own seat in that vote, after unwisely abandoning a safe seat in the Orangeville area to run in Toronto's Don Valley West. Finally, on March 5, he lost a by-election that would have returned him to the legislature, costing him his job as Conservative leader.
After absorbing all those blows, why would be want to run for office again in late 2010, risking another humiliating loss that would end his political hopes for good? One answer is that, this time, he could win.
Mr. Miller is vulnerable. He won the 2003 vote only narrowly, with 43 per cent of the vote to Mr. Tory's 38 per cent. He did better in 2006, taking 57 per cent, but a weak opponent, Jane Pitfield, gave him a run for his money with 32 per cent. Incumbency is not destiny in Toronto. Just ask Barbara Hall, who went into the 2003 vote as front-runner and ended up taking only 9 per cent of the votes.
Any candidate running against the mayor would have a D-Day-sized pile of ammunition supplied by Mr. Miller himself: a series of new taxes, from the land-transfer tax to the vehicle-registration fee, that have burdened Toronto ratepayers in the midst of a recession; a failure to control costs that has forced the city to raid its reserves again and again; a road-repair backlog of more than $300-million that has left many streets full of cracks and potholes; a so-called “war on the car†that has left motorists fuming as city council approves new bike lanes and transit lines.
The trouble is that none of Mr. Miller's city council rivals has a big enough cannon to make use of all that ammo. The councillors who are considering a run against him – Karen Stintz, Denzil Minnan-Wong, Michael Thompson, possibly Rob Ford – lack the name recognition, the fundraising clout and the simple gravitas to topple a high-profile mayor.
Mr. Tory has all those things and more. He ran an excellent campaign in 2003 that showed he has both the passion and the policy smarts for the job. As a former Rogers Communications executive, commissioner of the Canadian Football League and leading city lawyer, he understands the private sector and what it can contribute to the city. He knows that an organization, public or private, has to live within its means.
As a top fundraiser for the United Way and other charities, he understands the needs of the disadvantaged, too. This is no slash-and-burn conservative Neanderthal, but the quintessential Red Tory. As a political back-roomer since his 20s, he has the contacts and the skills to work with higher levels of government and get what Toronto needs. To top it off, he is admired by those who know him for his integrity and sense of fair play. Mr. Tory would be a dream candidate, a credible, moderate, experienced right-of-centre challenger to the pink-hued regime of Mr. Miller and his backers at city hall.
Will he risk it? No one would blame him for declining. For all his faults, Mr. Miller is a strong mayor with plenty of energy, lots of support and a sincere desire to improve the city. Mr. Tory comes with liabilities, including questionable political judgment, and a recent record of failure that would be hard to shake.
But for all his troubles, Mr. Tory, 55, still has a lot to offer. He cares about public service. He is deeply attached to the city where he was born, raised and educated. He could make a superb mayor.
So, yes, the adviser guarding his interests would tell him to take a pass. But the adviser with the city's interests at heart would say: Go for it, John.
