[micheal_can]

The bottom line is that there must be a business case/budgetary case that somehow supports any political decision. You can craft that case in Southern Ontario and the GTA with more ease and conviction than N. Ontario. I am a rail transit supporter and a previous resident of N Ontario, but I have doubts on just how long, or if ever, the Northlander runs. And the same for the HSR project. And the reason is budget, deficit, debt service costs, and economic and political uncertainties. All of those things have been keeping bond yields at higher levels and political actions (such as the ongoing French election and the strong shift to a more radical right vote) have pushed yields higher and debt service costs higher as well. In the USA the costs to service their national debt may exceed 1 trillion dollars shortly, in Canada , well over 80 billion dollars in federal and provincial aggregate totals. Increasingly bond markets seem to be reflecting unease with the growing GDP to debt ratios and interest rates, investment appears to be showing the effects. Does it mean none of this may happen, well those are political decisions. And the politicians hands are being increasingly restricted by the realities of their fiscal budgets. And when debt service is the number 1 item in your fiscal budget, your other options become more constricted.

I feel you and I have similar sentiments, but I am more hopeful. TBH, I have my doubts it actually will run, and stay running for more than 10 years.

 

[lenaitch]

The only other way the FN could push for it is if they make it about reconciliation and have the governments pay for it.

Not really. I don't think it has much to do with reconciliation. The days of exploiting natural resources on their traditional territories without compensation are over. There is inevitably going to be some form of payment by the miners/foresters, much like they pay royalties or stumpage to the government. They could do it as a direct payment or as a percentage partnership. Both federal (which has Constitutional responsibility) and provincial governments have a range of grants/loans/forgivable loans to either fund or back FN capital projects. Since FNs initially have no assets to back traditional commercial financing, these enable the FNs to put 'money on the table'.

Locally, the ceased operations due to a war taking all the materials away from their maintenance. Postwar, everyone saw the Autobahn and wanted that. So, they were ignored and then it was to expensive to keep and people did not want to ride that which was failing. Had the maintenance been kept up, who knows if they would have suffered the same fate.

There is always the need for someone to go first. So, if the Sidney area goes first and shows how to do it successfully, then in places like London ON where even BRT is scoffed at, LRT may be easier to sell. Highly doubt much will happen in Northern ON as nothing ever does due to the lack of needing to win the seats here.

Chicken, meet egg.

If the Cape Breton Region Municipality can make a viable case, then good for them but, as mentioned, the Maritimes has a history of asking the federal government to fund its own study on how to spend its own money.

 

[micheal_can]

Not really. I don't think it has much to do with reconciliation. The days of exploiting natural resources on their traditional territories without compensation are over. There is inevitably going to be some form of payment by the miners/foresters, much like they pay royalties or stumpage to the government. They could do it as a direct payment or as a percentage partnership. Both federal (which has Constitutional responsibility) and provincial governments have a range of grants/loans/forgivable loans to either fund or back FN capital projects. Since FNs initially have no assets to back traditional commercial financing, these enable the FNs to put 'money on the table'.

All that you listed is what I meant in that 'reconciliation'. They can use it as a tool to get what they feel they need for their people.

Chicken, meet egg.

Oh, I know. What is annoying is that we are seeing much the same thing with Via's LDF. It almost happened with the Corridor too, but the new trains are arriving and are making that no longer a threat.

If the Cape Breton Region Municipality can make a viable case, then good for them but, as mentioned, the Maritimes has a history of asking the federal government to fund its own study on how to spend its own money.

What I find interesting is that someone out there, who has some position of power sees this as a potentially viable thing. That would be like me suggesting HSR for the Northlander is worth studying. I know it is not, and would never suggest it.So either they know something we don't or, they just like wasting money on nothing.

 

[lenaitch]

What I find interesting is that someone out there, who has some position of power sees this as a potentially viable thing. That would be like me suggesting HSR for the Northlander is worth studying. I know it is not, and would never suggest it.So either they know something we don't or, they just like wasting money on nothing.

You could be right but I would put a broader brush on it; that a province sees finding a new way to get Ottawa to throw money at them is potentially a viable thing. In hindsight I'm not sure I should have disparaged the Maritimes. All provinces make whining to Ottawa to fund things that are a provincial responsibility a big part of their business plan.

 

[micheal_can]

You could be right but I would put a broader brush on it; that a province sees finding a new way to get Ottawa to throw money at them is potentially a viable thing. In hindsight I'm not sure I should have disparaged the Maritimes. All provinces make whining to Ottawa to fund things that are a provincial responsibility a big part of their business plan.

Is there another recent thing that would be as farfetched as this?

 

[lenaitch]

Is there another recent thing that would be as farfetched as this?

Not off the top of my head but funding municipal transit is not a federal responsibility.

 

[micheal_can]

Not off the top of my head but funding municipal transit is not a federal responsibility.

It is not a responsibility, but if we look across Canada, most major transit projects have been partially funded by the federal government for decades.

 

[lenaitch]

It is not a responsibility, but if we look across Canada, most major transit projects have been partially funded by the federal government for decades.

I know. Doesn't necessarily make it right. Absent a formal agreement with the provinces. such as healthcare, I'm not sure the feds playing in provincial sandboxes is necessarily a good thing.

 

[crs1026]

What I find interesting is that someone out there, who has some position of power sees this as a potentially viable thing. That would be like me suggesting HSR for the Northlander is worth studying. I know it is not, and would never suggest it.So either they know something we don't or, they just like wasting money on nothing.

There is nothing wrong with an initial study that puts a quantum on potential cost and benefit. The dangerous part is when people misinterpret that very imprecise "what-if" level study for evidence of actual action or commitment.

I particularly dislike media writers who are quick to headline their report along the lines of "LRT is coming to Cape Breton" when all that has been attempted is a very tentative exploration of what might be. Doesn't help when politicians and government officials then make noise as if the thing is moving, so they get credit for doing something, and the thing takes on a life that it never had.

And then we update, revisit, reexamine, and generally repeat the initial study with a second study, and a third study....

- Paul

 

[Admiral Beez]

The bottom line is that there must be a business case/budgetary case that somehow supports any political decision. You can craft that case in Southern Ontario and the GTA with more ease and conviction than N. Ontario.

I'm a huge rail fan, and I believe I've taken every passenger and museum train route (including the YDHR before it closed) in the province, from the Agawa Canyon and Polar Bear Express, to the Canadian, and multiple runs on the Corridor to Quebec City. But there is not a single route where VIA makes a profit unless fares are increased. The best that can be done is to focus on the routes where the bleeding is least. I expect PM Poilievre to take an axe to VIA.

 

[Urban Sky]

I'm a huge rail fan, and I believe I've taken every passenger and museum train route in the province, from the Agawa Canyon and Polar Bear Express, to the Canadian, and multiple runs on the Corridor to Quebec City. But there is not a single route where VIA makes a profit unless fares are increased. The best that can be done is to focus on the routes where the bleeding is least. I expect PM Poilievre to take an axe to VIA.

VIA recovers its direct operating costs on the Corridor (110-140%) and in good years (e.g., 101.5% in 2017) also on the Canadian. The only way for VIA to stop loosing money overall is to allow its already profitably routes to outgrow its overhead costs…

 

[Admiral Beez]

VIA recovers its direct operating costs on the Corridor (120-130%) and in good years (e.g., 2017) also on the Canadian. The only way for VIA to stop loosing money overall is to allow its already profitably routes to outgrow its overhead costs…

That's better than I thought. So what's with this dodgy reporting?

Via Rail hopes to beat 2019 ridership levels this year, even as losses deepen

MONTREAL — Via Rail notched a big jump in ridership last year, continuing a three-year trend ahead of an expected record number of customers in 2024. In its annual report Tuesday, the Crown corporation said some 4.1 million passengers hopped aboard its trains in 2023, a one-quarter jump from the...

ca.news.yahoo.com

"Beyond the main corridor, subsidies range between $680 and $1,015 per passenger versus $55 per passenger on average within it."

 

[Urban Sky]

That's better than I thought. So what's with this dodgy reporting?

Via Rail hopes to beat 2019 ridership levels this year, even as losses deepen

MONTREAL — Via Rail notched a big jump in ridership last year, continuing a three-year trend ahead of an expected record number of customers in 2024. In its annual report Tuesday, the Crown corporation said some 4.1 million passengers hopped aboard its trains in 2023, a one-quarter jump from the...

ca.news.yahoo.com

"Beyond the main corridor, subsidies range between $680 and $1,015 per passenger versus $55 per passenger on average within it."

They are based on the fully-allocated costs reported in VIA‘s Annual Reports, i.e., they include fixed costs. They are admittedly important when determining the entire network‘s cost to the taxpayer, but meaningless when looking at individual routes, where direct costs (reported in VIA‘s Corporate Plans) are much more pertinent, as I‘ve explained here:

VIA Rail

Vote accordingly! Don't wait til an election. Write letters, join advocacy groups, get the issue on the table now. Call your MP, call whoever you suspect will run against your MP. Write the media. Make noise. - Paul

urbantoronto.ca

 

[crs1026]

But there is not a single route where VIA makes a profit unless fares are increased. The best that can be done is to focus on the routes where the bleeding is least. I expect PM Poilievre to take an axe to VIA.

And would you expect a new government to axe any other transportation infrastructure that is equally "unprofitable" when viewed using the same very inclusive accounting methodology?

I am not optimistic that the business case for replacing the Long Distance fleet will prove to be affordable, particularly since it may be expressed as a single one-shot expenditure.... but I'm not sure VIA's profit and loss statement tells the whole story about these trains, either

- Paul

 

[Urban Sky]

I am not optimistic that the business case for replacing the Long Distance fleet will prove to be affordable, particularly since it may be expressed as a single one-shot expenditure.... but I'm not sure VIA's profit and loss statement tells the whole story about these trains, either

- Paul

The optimist in me would rather argue that the timing could play into the hands of VIA, as the liberal government could take all the credit for investing into securing the existing services into what is traditionally conservative heartlands without having to spend much money for it ahead of the election, whereas the Conservatives would face quite a backlash of their constituents if they were to cancel the only significant investment into non-corridor passenger rail services, while the procurements for HxR and countless transit projects in the evil big city are ongoing…