SimonP
Active Member
Yep, the new EKOS poll has the NDP at 33% in Quebec, to the Bloc's 30%. It also has the NDP at 25% nationally, only a point behind the Liberals.
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- Thread starter Jonny5
- Start date
GenerationW
Senior Member
Go NDP go!
That's quite the precipitous drop by the Bloc.
That's quite the precipitous drop by the Bloc.
SimonP
Active Member
A third poll is out with the NDP first in Quebec, and ahead of the Liberals nationally. If this is sustained (a big if) Jack will be leader of the opposition.
There is also 10% of the electorate who prefer Jack to Ignatieff, and NDP policies over Liberal ones, but have so far been planning to vote Liberal. Either because they have always have, or because the Liberals were the party that could form a government. It will be interesting to see if these voters start to swing over as well.
There is also 10% of the electorate who prefer Jack to Ignatieff, and NDP policies over Liberal ones, but have so far been planning to vote Liberal. Either because they have always have, or because the Liberals were the party that could form a government. It will be interesting to see if these voters start to swing over as well.
old boy
Senior Member
It's likely that any swing will be to the Liberals, with the spectre of a Harper majority looming. Stategic voting to keep Harper out is the NDP nemesis.
JasonParis
Moderator
Yes, but if the NDP continues to surge it'll be the Liberals nemesis as people willl plant their vote with the NDP to prevent a CPC Majority.
Observer Walt
Senior Member
I still am not sure why the appeal of the Bloc has endured so long in Quebec. After all is said and done, a vote for the Bloc is basically a vote for Quebec's powerlessness. None of the other leaders will want to be caught dead talking to Duceppe, after the discussions in the most recent two or three weeks where all of them have disclaimed any interest in a coalition, or anything that walks and talks the least bit like a coalition. I think we are finally seeing the waning of the Bloc's appeal, as Quebecers look to see how they can gain influence with people who actually count.
One has to feel sympathy for Iggy. No matter what he does, it doesn't seem to be working. I don't question his sincerity for a moment, but he's the wrong man for the job, as was his predecessor. It will take a miracle to save his job after the election. The only question will be whether he will resign quickly, or stay on for a year or so as a caretaker while the Libs do a top-to-bottom rethink.
Yes, to some extent, but some of the former Bloc vote will go Cons., especially in the Quebec City area. Observers were suggesting that the Conservatives were in danger of losing three or four of their seats, but that now is looking less likely.
One has to feel sympathy for Iggy. No matter what he does, it doesn't seem to be working. I don't question his sincerity for a moment, but he's the wrong man for the job, as was his predecessor. It will take a miracle to save his job after the election. The only question will be whether he will resign quickly, or stay on for a year or so as a caretaker while the Libs do a top-to-bottom rethink.
pman
Senior Member
why quebec votes for the bloc
Quebecois vote for the Bloc because it gives expression to their disdain for and indifference to the rest of Canada, which is a pretty hard trick to pull off unless you're nurturing some really profound resentment or you're 16 years old. While the Bloc can't form a government, the fact that Quebec sends so many Bloc MP's to Ottawa ensures no other party can win a majority. The governing party has to court the Bloc in order remain in power, and that means the usual stream of pork barrel and special treatment for Quebec, financed by Ontario and Alberta taxpayers. So voting Bloc makes perfect sense: it ensures the goodies from Ottawa keep coming, gives vent to profound, if misplaced, resentments and hostility towards us, and prevents the creation of a strong national government that might attempt to encroach on Quebec's sacred sovereignty.
As President Lincoln famously observed, "A house divided against itself cannot stand." It would be nice for English Canadians to see the quebecois for who they really are, and consider the possibility of a better future without them.
Quebecois vote for the Bloc because it gives expression to their disdain for and indifference to the rest of Canada, which is a pretty hard trick to pull off unless you're nurturing some really profound resentment or you're 16 years old. While the Bloc can't form a government, the fact that Quebec sends so many Bloc MP's to Ottawa ensures no other party can win a majority. The governing party has to court the Bloc in order remain in power, and that means the usual stream of pork barrel and special treatment for Quebec, financed by Ontario and Alberta taxpayers. So voting Bloc makes perfect sense: it ensures the goodies from Ottawa keep coming, gives vent to profound, if misplaced, resentments and hostility towards us, and prevents the creation of a strong national government that might attempt to encroach on Quebec's sacred sovereignty.
As President Lincoln famously observed, "A house divided against itself cannot stand." It would be nice for English Canadians to see the quebecois for who they really are, and consider the possibility of a better future without them.
Kitsune
Senior Member
NDP surging in Quebec? I'm not surprised. There are a lot rumours Jack will step down after this election... and its a 90%+ probability the next leader is Thomas Muclair - the NDP's first quebec MP and Quebec'ers love most Quebec leaders (and imo this guy could be the first NDP PM...). And the con's are in Majority territory with one week to go as well. It'll be interesting to see how this final week plays: both the Cons and Fibs are launching attack ad's against Jack, which means less fib's vs con's ads.
MetroMan
Senior Member
As much as NDPers may love this surge, this is very bad news for centre/left Canada and the best thing that could have happened to Harper, one week before election day.
In the past, NDP would lose support to the Liberals last minute to rally support around the realistic alternative against the Conservatives. It doesn't appear that this will happen this time. Since strategy is being removed as motivation to switch to Liberal, NDP voters will stick to their choice right up to the ballot box. Unless Ignatieff suffers a serious meltdown, this 50/50 split will remain, the Conservatives will win seats in tight ridings all over the country and walk away with a majority.
If this happens, it will be time for the Liberals and the NDP to consider merging over the next 4 years. Right versus Left-A versus Left-B means the Right has a permanent advantage that they acquired with the Alliance/Conservative merger. The left needs to do this too. Another alternative would be for the NDP to build on this surge, drop the "New" from their name and rebrand as the Democratic Party and move closer to the centre to replace the Liberals as the other Conservative adversary.
In the past, NDP would lose support to the Liberals last minute to rally support around the realistic alternative against the Conservatives. It doesn't appear that this will happen this time. Since strategy is being removed as motivation to switch to Liberal, NDP voters will stick to their choice right up to the ballot box. Unless Ignatieff suffers a serious meltdown, this 50/50 split will remain, the Conservatives will win seats in tight ridings all over the country and walk away with a majority.
If this happens, it will be time for the Liberals and the NDP to consider merging over the next 4 years. Right versus Left-A versus Left-B means the Right has a permanent advantage that they acquired with the Alliance/Conservative merger. The left needs to do this too. Another alternative would be for the NDP to build on this surge, drop the "New" from their name and rebrand as the Democratic Party and move closer to the centre to replace the Liberals as the other Conservative adversary.
SimonP
Active Member
I disagree about a Liberal/NDP merger. There is still a strong section of the Liberals that aren't to the left. Parts of the Liberal coalition such as Bay Streeters, Anglo-Montrealers, and rural Catholics are not terribly progressive and would very likely prefer the Conservatives to a merged NDP/Liberal party.
What I think this election is showing is that there is a viable progressive coalition. It's New Democrats, combined with left-leaning Quebecers, progressive Liberals, and a slice of the current Green vote. These voters easily cover 40% of the electorate, and match the Conservatives. A remnant Liberal Party needs to survive to grab 15% to 20% of the vote that would go Conservative otherwise.
What I think this election is showing is that there is a viable progressive coalition. It's New Democrats, combined with left-leaning Quebecers, progressive Liberals, and a slice of the current Green vote. These voters easily cover 40% of the electorate, and match the Conservatives. A remnant Liberal Party needs to survive to grab 15% to 20% of the vote that would go Conservative otherwise.
adma
Superstar
AND...there's a strong section of populist support which can actually swing NDP/Con; don't forget that.
Worth reading re "strategic" voting
TonyV
Senior Member
This time around it will be "unite the left".
Towered
Senior Member
Politicians with beards don't win elections anymore.
doady
Senior Member
The left has already always been in a position to unite and form government, for many years now, and judging from the polls they will still be in position to unite and form government after the election as well. So NDP-Liberal merger would make no difference except to reduce people's options.
Mongo
Senior Member
At times like this that I truly wish that the Canadian Federal elections used Proportional Representation. "Strategic Voting" would be a thing of the past, as for the first time every vote would count (unlike our current First-Past-the-Post system, where only the votes of those who vote for the winning candidate in their ridings count, the rest of the votes cast are completely wasted). I suspect that if strategic voting were no longer a factor, the NDP would end up far surpassing the Liberals in vote share, while the PCs would remain close to their historic levels.
So the most likely outome would be NDP/Liberal or NDP/Liberal/Green coalition governments for the forseeable future.
For those who object that they want their vote to be for a local representative, rather than a name from a Party list, you could easily arrange that. There are 308 federal ridings. Simply have a total of 2 x 308 = 616 members, with half directly elected in their ridings using First-Past-the-Post. The other half are chosen from their respective Party lists, in numbers such that the sum of the FPtP seats and the Party list seats match the national popular vote percentages. (Or halve the number of ridings if you wish to keep 308 total seats for some reason.) That way, you can have a local riding member, who would presumably look out for your local interests, and also know your vote actually counts, even if your choice at the riding level is not directly elected (they could still be chosen from the Party list).
So the most likely outome would be NDP/Liberal or NDP/Liberal/Green coalition governments for the forseeable future.
For those who object that they want their vote to be for a local representative, rather than a name from a Party list, you could easily arrange that. There are 308 federal ridings. Simply have a total of 2 x 308 = 616 members, with half directly elected in their ridings using First-Past-the-Post. The other half are chosen from their respective Party lists, in numbers such that the sum of the FPtP seats and the Party list seats match the national popular vote percentages. (Or halve the number of ridings if you wish to keep 308 total seats for some reason.) That way, you can have a local riding member, who would presumably look out for your local interests, and also know your vote actually counts, even if your choice at the riding level is not directly elected (they could still be chosen from the Party list).
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