1. Metrolinx is misleading us when they say the capacity of LRT is 15,000 pphpd. The Finch LRT is not designed for that kind of ridership. Even with complete grade separation, that is pushing the limit.
View attachment 74385
2. "A peak point demand of 2,800 people per hour would require a vehicle about every 2 minutes, 45 seconds." That's the headway using Light Rail Vehicles. To even attempt to handle that with buses is a recipe for bunching and unreliable service.
3. Ridership projections often do not take into account latent demand. Regardless, when was the last time these Miller era projections were updated? In 2014 the Finch bus all-day ridership was 43,952 (
source), about the same as Spadina and Queen streetcars in fact. Over regular service hours, that works out to be almost 2,500 per hour on average - a number that is certainly even higher during peak periods. If all this is true, 2031 might be happening today as we speak.
4. Speaking of 2031, by the time the LRT is built, that date will be only 10 years away. However the design life of LRT is at least 30 years. During that time, the city will continue to grow. Humber College and York University will continue to expand. Car ownership will continue to decline. Connecting bus routes will continue to get higher ridership and more frequent service. I fully expect that ridership on Finch will only go up as time goes on. The ability of LRT to accommodate future growth is a benefit that should not be understated.
I'm not sure about London, but thank goodness Toronto did not settle for inferior BRT that would be mostly full on day one, let alone in the future. Not to mention better development potential, no more diesel buses, a completely rebuilt streetscape, higher ridership for lower operating cost, longer lasting vehicles, a ride that is smoother, quieter and more spacious. Too bad Brampton will be missing out on the benefits of LRT (at least for the time being). Would have been paid for by the province too. Shame!
Sure, but you get what you pay for.
From the EA:
"The Etobicoke-Finch West Corridor does not have sufficient space for a 3.5 metre by-pass lane while at the same time providing standard facilities for sidewalks, bicycle lanes, four through lanes and left turn lanes for general traffic."