[nfitz]

And in 2011 the Prov nonchalantly offered $2bn for a Sheppard Subway prior to signing the MOU with Ford. That’s quite a tidy sum to propose pouring into on a corridor that many deem unworthy of subways and not regionally significant.

I thought that the MOU was for $650 million, not $2 billion. With a vague promise of more money if they didn't use it all on Eglinton (grade-separated from Mount Dennis to Scarborough Centre). See http://news.ontario.ca/mto/en/2011/03/improving-transit-in-toronto.html

Ah, which also costs the Sheppard subway from Don Mills to Scarborough Centre at $2.8 billion (including storage, cars, etc., but not including a new yard) and from Yonge to Downsview at $1.4 billion (including 2 new stations, subway cars, and storage). Presumably in 2011$.

 

[WislaHD]

If a subway is going from Don Mills to STC and then Kennedy, would it not make more sense to make STC the hub. The length of subway and number of stations would be the exact same. STC would be a hub for many GO buses. The Markham GO line intersects both lines.

SmartTrack through STC makes it even more of a Hub than Agincourt.

I am not certain what you are suggesting exactly but looking at the map if we were to make STC the hub, then you will have to construct Midland, Brimley and maybe a McCowan station on the Sheppard line, and pretty much nearly double the length of Sheppard subway extension (VP to Agincourt is nearly length of Agincourt to STC).

This is of course assuming that B-D Extension happens. Ideally, B-D is scrapped completely, and we have a spur of SmartTrack reach STC. This is all we need and I am still pulling for John Tory to pull the switcheroo and save us $2b dollars.

To better illustrate what I mean, this is what I had in mind with replacing B-D Extension with SmartTrack:

 

[44 North]

@nfitz. I'm not certain, I recall reading it on TransitToronto. I'll research it more later.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

I grasp that, and I’d agree the SELRT was predominantly a local service line – particularly when compared to a suburban/905 subway. But IMO it was a local service line because it essentially devolved into a local service line. At the end of the day the corridor still connected two major UGCs (albeit, indirectly), while offering a crosstown service where no other nearby higher-speed crosstown services existed.

There’s no denying Sheppard is currently a relatively busy corridor, it was proposed to get busier and more developed, and that STC and NYCC are fairly important hubs. Many would ride from end to end, or long enough on it that the SELRT could be considered regionally significant. And if extending subways to some parking lots in Richmond Hill, or some fields in Vaughan, is considered 'regionally significant' - I don't see why LRT on Sheppard wouldn't be.

That thesis of future development at the centres has been debunked. Pull out a map of development patterns in the city, and neither STC nor NYCC are all that important from that regard. The regional centre, centrifugal model from the old Metroplan is dead as a duck. The line didn't devolve into a local service line because it is indirect - it is a local service line because the multi-centre plan was for all intents and purposes an abject failure.

And in 2011 the Prov nonchalantly offered $2bn for a Sheppard Subway prior to signing the MOU with Ford. That’s quite a tidy sum to propose pouring into on a corridor that many deem unworthy of subways and not regionally significant.

And we should base our priorities on that episode of "good planning" I suppose?

AoD

 

[44 North]

@AoD Oh, I'm very much aware it's been debunked. Both the past Metro plans, and IMO the current P2G UGC stuff. I'm simply saying that using the logic of the current Prov plans for connected "centres", Sheppard could be considered fairly 'regionally important'. But to be clear I do not support a subway extension on Sheppard.

 

[k10ery]

I took the 2010$ provincial promise of $0.95 billlionn. Reading more carefully, this includes the cost of Conlins Yard, so that should have been $1.0 (2010$) not $1.2 billion. Metrolinx themselves in 2010 estimated that escalated to year of spending (opening in 2014) would be $1.105 billion. So in current $ we are still about $1.2 billion.

Not exact, but a good starting point.

And you believed any of that?

 

[nfitz]

And you believed any of that?

If the combined federal/provincial funding for Sheppard East was to be transferred to a different project (Hurontario comes to mind), then $1 blilion or $1.2 billion seems like about the starting point. $500 million would be too low. $1.5 billion would be too high.

I wouldn't be surprised if there's a more recent number somewhere in more recent Metrolinx board documents.

 

[wopchop]

And you believed any of that?

And your estimation of $2billion is based on what, exactly? Does it involve more expertise than exists among Metrolinx staff?

I'm more inclined to go with what nfitz says, because, well, he actually provided supporting documentation. You provided nothing but feelings.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Is that a joke? The city is approaching it's debt limit, and I can't see the province making available money for an extension that comes no where near the current Sheppard ridership, let alone the much higher number needed to justify subway!

$1.2 billion is a very bad estimate that nfitz pulled out of... somewhere unexplained. With cost escalation and a more realistic number for the yard, we're talking $2 billion today.

I took the 2010$ provincial promise of $0.95 billlionn. Reading more carefully, this includes the cost of Conlins Yard, so that should have been $1.0 (2010$) not $1.2 billion. Metrolinx themselves in 2010 estimated that escalated to year of spending (opening in 2014) would be $1.105 billion. So in current $ we are still about $1.2 billion.

Not exact, but a good starting point.

I don't think it's bad either. I was going to say 1.5 billion but I thought it was too much. And the city made its bed pandering to suburbanites. I don't see why this should fall back on the province considering the GO Train needs money!!!

The Tories were promising to build the Sheppard subway last election, they still lost.

2018 will very different than last year. Tim hudak blew the election with 100k. And the association with Rob.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I took the 2010$ provincial promise of $0.95 billlionn. Reading more carefully, this includes the cost of Conlins Yard, so that should have been $1.0 (2010$) not $1.2 billion. Metrolinx themselves in 2010 estimated that escalated to year of spending (opening in 2014) would be $1.105 billion. So in current $ we are still about $1.2 billion.

Not exact, but a good starting point.

I grasp that, and I’d agree the SELRT was predominantly a local service line – particularly when compared to a suburban/905 subway. But IMO it was a local service line because it essentially devolved into a local service line. At the end of the day the corridor still connected two major UGCs (albeit, indirectly), while offering a crosstown service where no other nearby higher-speed crosstown services existed.

There’s no denying Sheppard is currently a relatively busy corridor, it was proposed to get busier and more developed, and that STC and NYCC are fairly important hubs. Many would ride from end to end, or long enough on it that the SELRT could be considered regionally significant. And if extending subways to some parking lots in Richmond Hill, or some fields in Vaughan, is considered 'regionally significant' - I don't see why LRT on Sheppard wouldn't be.

I guess my point is ultimately that it was a 'regional' line as far as its $1.3bn pricetag (and TO’s aversion to affordable non-underground light metros) allowed it to be.



And in 2011 the Prov nonchalantly offered $2bn for a Sheppard Subway prior to signing the MOU with Ford. That’s quite a tidy sum to propose pouring into on a corridor that many deem unworthy of subways and not regionally significant.

I thought that the MOU was for $650 million, not $2 billion. With a vague promise of more money if they didn't use it all on Eglinton (grade-separated from Mount Dennis to Scarborough Centre). See http://news.ontario.ca/mto/en/2011/03/improving-transit-in-toronto.html

Ah, which also costs the Sheppard subway from Don Mills to Scarborough Centre at $2.8 billion (including storage, cars, etc., but not including a new yard) and from Yonge to Downsview at $1.4 billion (including 2 new stations, subway cars, and storage). Presumably in 2011$.

So sheppard is likely 3.3 billion now or whereabouts. The same as the SSE. What makes people think Wynne won't bite?

 

[Adjei]

2018 will very different than last year. Tim hudak blew the election with 100k. And the association with Rob.

What bout 2011, 2007, 2003?

Promising some Sheppard Subway is not going to make you win over Toronto voters..

 

[gweed123]

What bout 2011, 2007, 2003?

Promising some Sheppard Subway is not going to make you win over Toronto voters..

Agreed. If you were going for vote buying with transit projects, RER is a much better investment (politically speaking, but also in terms of planning). It provides the same benefits as a subway, but you can hit a lot more ridings with the same amount of money. With ~$3 billion in your pocket, you can hit up a heck of a lot more GO stations touting the benefits of RER than you can hitting up a couple subway stations in Scarborough talking about a Sheppard Subway.

 

[k10ery]

And your estimation of $2billion is based on what, exactly? Does it involve more expertise than exists among Metrolinx staff?

I'm more inclined to go with what nfitz says, because, well, he actually provided supporting documentation. You provided nothing but feelings.

On the contrary, I provided a reasonable broken down estimate and a methodology. nfitz linked to a 5 year old Metrolinx document which he quoted with touching naivete. And yet intelligent people know that transit agencies greatly lowball their initial estimates and save the bad news for later. If you don't believe that, then go ahead and build the Leslie car house for nfitz's risible $150 million "escalated".

The point is McGuinty promised Toronto a 13 km transit line, with vehicles and a yard. Wynne needs to deliver the equivalent to Toronto, in my view. Folks like nfitz who go around saying "What can we build with $1.2 billion?" are letting her off far too easily.

 

[nfitz]

The point is McGuinty promised Toronto a 13 km transit line, with vehicles and a yard. Wynne needs to deliver the equivalent to Toronto, in my view. Folks like nfitz who go around saying "What can we build with $1.2 billion?" are letting her off far too easily.

I've made it very clear to Kathleen Wynne that they need to meet their promise. That doesn't mean I can't answer a hypothetical on what can be done with the money. In terms of year-of-spending we know where the money has gone - Hurontario .

I'm not sure where you get a "13 km transit line". What was promised was a 14-km transit line with completion expected in 2013. I don't see why you are letting Wynne off the hook for the last bit of track to Meadowvale!

McGuinty also promised Toronto an almost 24-km transit line on Finch to be completed in 2013 from Humber College east to Don Mills station. The currently promised line is 11 km.

On the contrary, I provided a reasonable broken down estimate and a methodology.

I confess I haven't seen that. Can you link to that post?

 

[Adjei]

McGuinty also promised Toronto an almost 24-km transit line on Finch to be completed in 2013 from Humber College east to Don Mills station. The currently promised line is 11 km.

I thought the Finch Line was only proposed from Humber College to Finch Station?