[gweed123]

I thought the GO numbers in TBM were very rosy were they not?

...and just to kick the dead horse again:
Cost to complete Sheppard as subway today: $4,700,000,000
Assume annual ridership doubles from 16 million to 32 million immediately...
Using the same useless formula, that's $147 per "passenger".

Not that I agree with the usefulness of the given metric.

I had to pull the GO numbers from 2 different documents, because they didn't have the ridership projections and the cost estimates in the same one.

And yes, the Sheppard Subway has a very high per passenger cost, which is why building it isn't a very good idea.

And I don't think it's a useless metric. It gives a very good indication of how many people are benefitting from a given investment. A more accurate metric would be cost per person per km, but it gives a good general indication of how cost-effectively our transit dollars are being used. Why would we spend $1 billion dollars in 1 area to get 15 million riders per year when we can spend that same $1 billion in another area and get 40 million riders per year? Is the latter not a wiser investment?

 

[andrewpmk]

I think that the GO lines ought to have extremely high ridership per $ spent. If GO becomes like other big commuter rail systems in the world (e.g. Sydney CityRail, Paris RER), I could easily see an upgraded GO system with 2-5 minute peak frequencies and 5-15 minute off peak frequencies attracting a ridership of 1 million people/day or more. GO could potentially have higher ridership than the existing subway system. Once major upgrades begin to GO lines such as Lakeshore and Georgetown, expect to see a LOT of development near stations.

Yes, Sheppard subway (or downtown relief line for that matter) would have lower ridership per $ than GO, but that is because there is no alternative to building underground if you want proper grade separation. Fast underground transit which provides a 20-25 minute time between STC and Yonge/Sheppard will attract lots of riders and take people off the 401, particularly if we see lots of development in the area. Slow light rail lines which take longer to get from STC to Yonge/Sheppard than the existing bus #190 and subway because they require 1 extra transfer will not take very many people off the 401.

 

[M II A II R II K]

And plus a subway still serves the purpose of short range rapid transit to move mass volumes of people through dense areas. Even if a subway line is built only for that purpose as well as relief, and not to carry people long distances.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

3,100 pphpd for the SELRT (Don Mills to Morningside), slightly higher than that for a Sheppard Subway to STC.

Which of course begs the question why aren't they building a spur line from Sheppard down to STC? Clearly the ROW can handle the extra ridership, seeing as how even the 2031 projection can even be handled by BRT.

Spending a billion dollars (well, $950 million) to serve 3,100 pphpd in 20 years is a joke. I could make a laundry list of projects where the dollars spent per projected passenger ratio would be way higher than what it is for the SELRT. The fact that this was the top priority for the TTC is an even bigger joke.

In fact, just for fun, here's the numbers:
The SELRT will carry 13.9 million riders per year. That's $68/passenger.
The DRL will carry 117.1 million per year, with an estimated cost of about $6 billion. That's $51/passenger.
Electrification of the Lakeshore line is estimated to be about $1.2 billion, with an annual ridership of 86.9 million. That's $13/passenger.
Electrification of the Georgetown line is about $880 million, with an annual ridership of 61.9 million. That's $14/passenger.
The Eglinton LRT is about $4.8 billion, with an annual ridership of 62.7 million. That's $76 million/passenger (actually worse than Sheppard).

Sources:
http://www.gotransit.com/estudy/en/current_study/Appendix Files/Appendix 8B.pdf
http://www.metrolinx.com/thebigmove/Docs/big_move/RTP_Backgrounder_Modelling.pdf

Well what they could have done is built the Subway and then started the LRT From Agincourt to the Morningside, creating a win win. But this is Toronto.

 

[nfitz]

Well what they could have done is built the Subway and then started the LRT From Agincourt to the Morningside, creating a win win. But this is Toronto.

A great idea if there's an infinite amount of money.

But where do you find the money?

And how do you justify not spending it instead on a subway with 4-times the ridership, such as the Don Mills line.

 

[Riverdale Rink Rat]

http://www.gotransit.com/estudy/en/current_study/Appendix%20Files/Appendix%208B.pdf[/url]
http://www.metrolinx.com/thebigmove/Docs/big_move/RTP_Backgrounder_Modelling.pdf

Now THAT's an expensive line! But what's the 0.7 of a person do? Send only their legs & torso on the train? ;-)

 

[nfitz]

The Eglinton LRT is about $4.8 billion, with an annual ridership of 62.7 million. That's $76 million/passenger (actually worse than Sheppard).

What? That's $76 per passenger trip, assuming that it has to pay for itself in a single year. Wouldn't you normally use 30-40 years? That's less than $2 per passenger trip.

 

[M II A II R II K]

Now THAT's an expensive line! But what's the 0.7 of a person do? Send only their legs & torso on the train? ;-)

It will cost them an arm and a leg.

 

[gweed123]

What? That's $76 per passenger trip, assuming that it has to pay for itself in a single year. Wouldn't you normally use 30-40 years? That's less than $2 per passenger trip.

I know, it's just useful as a relative comparison to other projects. Assuming the debts are all over 30 years, the ratio of the project costs per passenger relative to each other.

Now THAT's an expensive line! But what's the 0.7 of a person do? Send only their legs & torso on the train? ;-)

Hahaha, it's 62,700,000 people though .

 

[W. K. Lis]

Future extensions to the Sheppard East LRT would bring it to Meadowvale Road, the Toronto Zoo, and the new Rouge National Urban Park.

 

[Dan416]

Geez and people thought the Sheppard subway was a white elephant, what do you call this? A white mammoth?

 

[W. K. Lis]

Geez and people thought the Sheppard subway was a white elephant, what do you call this? A white mammoth?

You're talking about the Rouge Park? High Park was considered too far from the city because it was outside the city's borders (even past the village of Parkdale) at the time.

 

[jje1000]

Geez and people thought the Sheppard subway was a white elephant, what do you call this? A white mammoth?

A LRT stop at the zoo/major park warrants discussion.

 

[andrewpmk]

The zoo and Rouge Park do not and never will generate much transit ridership. There is not much traffic in this area and most of the people going here will probably drive anyway.

Most of the ridership on the Sheppard LRT will be between Don Mills and Kennedy, where I expect the LRT will be packed in rush hour due to too little capacity. There have been a whole bunch of condo towers built along Sheppard (including at Allen, Bathurst, Yonge, Bayview, Bessarion, Leslie, Don Mills, Victoria Park and Kennedy) and around Scarborough Centre in the last ten years. There have been a few condo towers at Sheppard & Markham Rd as well. Also the traffic on the 401 tend to be worst west of the 404, bad in rush hour between 404 and somewhere between Kennedy and Morningside, and uncongested between Morningside and somewhere just west of Brock Road where the collector-express lanes end. On the other hand the east end of the LRT will be underused as there is not much there other than the zoo, Rouge Park and some big box stores and housing subdivisons.

 

[W. K. Lis]

The zoo and Rouge Park do not and never will generate much transit ridership. There is not much traffic in this area and most of the people going here will probably drive anyway.

Most of the ridership on the Sheppard LRT will be between Don Mills and Kennedy, where I expect the LRT will be packed in rush hour due to too little capacity. There have been a whole bunch of condo towers built along Sheppard (including at Allen, Bathurst, Yonge, Bayview, Bessarion, Leslie, Don Mills, Victoria Park and Kennedy) and around Scarborough Centre in the last ten years. There have been a few condo towers at Sheppard & Markham Rd as well. Also the traffic on the 401 tend to be worst west of the 404, bad in rush hour between 404 and somewhere between Kennedy and Morningside, and uncongested between Morningside and somewhere just west of Brock Road where the collector-express lanes end. On the other hand the east end of the LRT will be underused as there is not much there other than the zoo, Rouge Park and some big box stores and housing subdivisons.

Most people drive to the Zoo because they don't like to take slow, uncomfortable buses. Should there be an extension to the Sheppard East LRT in the future, a lot more people would use it to get to the Zoo.

As for the Rouge Park, it still has to be developed. Which means more than likely they would concentrate non-wilderness venues near the LRT, away from the more wilderness acreage.