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Dude, you don't need to stretch things into hyperbole.

My implication is that cities are becoming like living organisms in terms of their economy and social structure. You cannot expect Ottawa to send diplomats to convince businessmen to invest in Toronto, so Toronto itself opens economic offices abroad to make the case.
 
No one would dispute that. At a macro level, we experience periods of significant climate change. The current global climate change is called global warming.

Politically, 'climate change' has come to replace 'global warming' in the popular vernacular, probably because there are way too many yokels who believe that global warming doesn't exist because it is snowing outside.

This is word play and nothing more. Politically, the term "climate change" has been hijacked because there is already considerable scientific literature on natural variations in the global temperature average that use the phrase. That this temperature has gone up following a well-documented climate event called The Little Ice Age (1300 to 1850) should not be too surprising. The period before 1300 is referred to as the Medieval Warm Period (900 to 1300), which was warmer than today. No coal plants then, either.

2005 was either the warmest or second-warmest year on record. Check the IPCC data. So... no?

Second on their record. But why not a new first? Why a drop since?

Maybe satellite data says there hasn't been any warming since 2000 because satellites don't have the ability to measure temperature?

Maybe you are wrong. Satellite measurements of global temperature have been recorded since 1979 and offer up record that is far superior to surface station measurements - which missed things like the oceans, the Arctic, Antarctic, detailed coverage of the developing world and so on.

In case you don't believe me:

http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html


Irrelevant. Global warming is about long-term trends. There's been a bunch of years over the past century with slight cooling periods. What's relevant is that the overall trend line shows a significant increase over time

Are you presuming knowledge of a trend about the future? If you want to know something about the past 11,500 years (the Holocene), the trend shows a cooling ever since the climate optimum of 9,000 to 5,000 years ago, when it was considerably warmer than today. However, even that very warm period was punctuated by a significant cool period some 8,200 years ago. From about 2,750 to 2,200 years ago there was a cool period. Even Roman writers of the time noted long snowy winters and the freezing of the Tiber river. That was followed by yet another significant warm period. How warm did it get then? Consider this: tree trunks from that period are still being washed out from under the alpine glaciers of today in Europe. Some 1,600 to 1,100 years ago it was cooler, and observers from that period noted the freezing of the Black Sea and the Nile river. What happens then? The Medieval Warm Period. Somewhat warmer than today, that period lasted roughly from 1,100 to 700 years ago, and was followed by the Little Ice age that concluded around the early to mid nineteenth century.

And now the Modern Warm Period. Lucky us, since millions of people probably died during the Little Ice Age.

There is already knowledge of a well-established 1,000 to 1,500 trend in major climate shifts. Within each of these larger shifts are smaller degrees of variation in temperature. These are linked to the sun - as is the present comparatively small shift in temperature (less than 1C in 150 years).

No, they're not. Again, we're concerned with long-term trends. The data point you're referring to indicated that sea ice levels were roughly equal to 1979 levels for ONE day in December.

If you check the actual satellite data you will see that it was more than one day (unfortunately the relevant sensor has malfunctioned since the early new year). Thousands of square kilometres of ice just does not melt in a day.

Since you are making reference to trends, two things are important here: first, ice coverage is up over the last two years. That's acknowledged. The second is that the "historic" drop in Arctic ice coverage was attributed to changes in the arctic ocean circulation. Such ocean shifts are driven by the sun. You can refer to NASA for that information. They published it.


Concerning the Arctic sea Ice:

The NSIDC has of late acknowledged “sensor drift,†that began in early January, and which has caused a growing underestimation of sea ice extent until late February.

However, the AMSR-E sensor on board Aqua is functioning well, but it's data set only goes back to 2002.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png

The big problem for those who claim that this warming is a product of human activity - or that it is even calamitous - is that they have failed to separated any proclaimed signal of human activity from natural variations. For example, in all its years publishing, the IPCC report have never accurately predicted one ENSO-La Nina fluctuation. If it can't make even reasonably accurate predictions about natural climate variations, then how can anyone proclaim accurate knowledge about human impact?
 
Okay, I get swayed back and forth on the whole global warming issue but to me the real concern is the global polluting of the environment including the oceans and atmosphere and the destroying of the forests and biospheres etc. This seems to be the bigger issue, and whether it results in an actual 'warming' or not who cares? It certainly cannot result in anything good so lets frame the argument differently in a more practical way that we can all relate to.
 
Gah. Hydrogen's arguments read like a laundry list of points that are specifically dealt with all over the place. Start here and here, if anyone is interested.

AGW is supported by a ridiculously solid consensus of scientists and science institutions, including the Royal Society of Canada, the National Academy of Science in the United States and, of course, the IPCC, which is made up of scientists from over 130 countries.

Needless to say, if they all happen to be flagrantly wrong on this, it doesn't just stand as an individual failure -- it would inevitably spark a major rethink of science as an academic institution and the scientific method itself.

Now, should Miller be spending money in support of a conference regarding the issue? I'd argue yes, but I can see merit to the other side. I'd prefer it if the province was the one kicking in the money for Toronto to be at the table.
 
GraphicMatt, maybe you can explain, in the light of such a consensus, why so much money continues to be spent on climate change research? If the supposed problem is so well understood (which it isn't), then why the mounting dollar cost looking into it?

Take a look at this paper: http://arxiv.org/abs/0809.3762

AGW is political. It's a hypothesis in search of supporting evidence. Its supposed predictions are based on computer models that are completely insufficient in describing global climate. As I mentioned earlier, they have failed to predict climate variation with any reasonable accuracy. You cite the IPCC, but have you read any of their reports? Have you noted the relative absence concerning the effects of atmospheric water vapour? Have you noted that they state a low level of scientific understanding for - among other things - the effects of stratospheric water vapour, clouds, decadal ocean oscillations, and solar irradiance?

For your information, scientific institutions don't ask their membership what they think collectively when arriving at a consensus. Besides, science should not be done by consensus, but by evidence.

If the problem and the solutions are so clear, then why spend money joining international clubs? Because it could mean funding for cities? I don't see the great need to spend $140,000 on what amounts to an international lobby group.
 
I think it's clear that we can't just pump gasses into our thin film of life-supporting atmosphere on a massive scale without screwing up the biosphere. Understanding, and being able to accurately model *exactly* what the results will be is not a pre-requisite to doing something to curb our emissions, IMHO.

If I was kicking you in the leg repeatedly, I think you would be justified in asking me to stop without my having to produce a study concluding exactly what is likely to happen to your leg if I don't.
 
GraphicMatt, maybe you can explain, in the light of such a consensus, why so much money continues to be spent on climate change research? If the supposed problem is so well understood (which it isn't), then why the mounting dollar cost looking into it?

Because that's how science is done? Just because there have been a number of conclusions reached by scientists does not mean that there's not still a wealth of points still under debate or review.

Take a look at this paper: http://arxiv.org/abs/0809.3762

AGW is political. It's a hypothesis in search of supporting evidence. Its supposed predictions are based on computer models that are completely insufficient in describing global climate. As I mentioned earlier, they have failed to predict climate variation with any reasonable accuracy. You cite the IPCC, but have you read any of their reports? Have you noted the relative absence concerning the effects of atmospheric water vapour? Have you noted that they state a low level of scientific understanding for - among other things - the effects of stratospheric water vapour, clouds, decadal ocean oscillations, and solar irradiance?

For your information, scientific institutions don't ask their membership what they think collectively when arriving at a consensus. Besides, science should not be done by consensus, but by evidence.

If the problem and the solutions are so clear, then why spend money joining international clubs? Because it could mean funding for cities? I don't see the great need to spend $140,000 on what amounts to an international lobby group.

A few points here:

1) I decided earlier today that a link war on this topic isn't really good for anybody, but here's a taste: Lindzen is more than a bit shady, there's lots of work surrounding water vapour, and it's certainly not been ignored by the IPCC. But, sure, of course there are still things that aren't fully understood at this point -- it's why work is ongoing and important.
2) There's certainly a large political element to AGW at this point, because governments do need to respond. Why would thousands of climate scientists go along with it if it's false, though? Are they getting bribes? Are they communists?
3) Consensus comes through evidence. The peer-review process is very much about building a consensus and addressing contradicting arguments. There have been hundreds of papers published on AGW.
4) While AGW is recognized, there are certainly no 'clear solutions'. City governments can certainly play an important environmental role, however. I would imagine that's why they're talking.
 
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I think it's clear that we can't just pump gasses into our thin film of life-supporting atmosphere on a massive scale without screwing up the biosphere. Understanding, and being able to accurately model *exactly* what the results will be is not a pre-requisite to doing something to curb our emissions, IMHO.

If I was kicking you in the leg repeatedly, I think you would be justified in asking me to stop without my having to produce a study concluding exactly what is likely to happen to your leg if I don't.

Exactly.
 
A few points here:

1) I decided earlier today that a link war on this topic isn't really good for anybody...

So why did you start one?

Do you have any idea who verifies what is posted on Source Watch? No one. Relying on a site with a very definite political slant is hardly a reach for objectivity.

Again, RealClimate is a blog site that can easily be described as having a very definite point of view. In other words, it is one-sided.

The forcing effects of carbon dioxide are unproven. Water vapour and clouds regulate atmospheric carbon dioxide, not the other way around.

I think it's clear that we can't just pump gasses into our thin film of life-supporting atmosphere on a massive scale without screwing up the biosphere.

I think you don't understand that carbon dioxide is absolutely essential to life on this planet. If anything, the present levels of carbon dioxide are at their lowest in the last 150 million years. In fact, when atmospheric carbon dioxide was higher, there was a greater level of biodiversity (see for example, the Eocene).
 
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Hydrogen:

Water vapour and clouds regulate atmospheric carbon dioxide, not the other way around.

Huh? No offense, but I don't think atomspheric CO2 is regulated by either. Annual cycles are correlated to other factors such as seasons, but I don't believe there are any cause and effect relationship otherwise between the factors you've cited.

I think you don't understand that carbon dioxide is absolutely essential to life on this planet. If anything, the present levels of carbon dioxide are at their lowest in the last 150 million years. In fact, when atmospheric carbon dioxide was higher, there was a greater level of biodiversity (see for example, the Eocene).

You can't equate CO2 being essential to life to changes in CO2 levels being desirable - the two things are not related. In addition, I believe the general understanding is that O2 levels, not CO2, are related to diversity.

AoD
 
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So why did you start one?

Do you have any idea who verifies what is posted on Source Watch? No one. Relying on a site with a very definite political slant is hardly a reach for objectivity.

Again, RealClimate is a blog site that can easily be described as having a very definite point of view. In other words, it is one-sided.

What, and all your global warming denial points just fell from the sky? We use sources. It's how we learn.

Source Watch includes citations to other publications, as does Real Climate and Discover Magazine and the half-dozen other sources I've used in this thread. The scientifically-minded sites aren't politically activate and they have nothing to do with Al Gore or whoever. Slanted, sure, but 'politically' slanted? To what end?

You're welcome to stand on the other side of the issue if you want, though. You can hang out with the creationists.
 
GraphicMatt, I've posted many sources before on other threads. What I've pointed out here is that your last set of links are hardly known for their assumed objectivity: these sites exist for a reason. Moreover, your own concluding remarks suggests a political point of view. Might I suggest that you would have had all the makings of a follower of Lysenko and his "accepted" ideas, or that you could easily be a typical member of the well-informed geological consensus that found the idea of moving continents preposterous not all that long ago? You probably would not like such a suggestion. I'm hardly of the creationist ilk since creationism is not science. What I am pointing out is that far too many people hold conclusions because it suits their politics.

I am not fond of any political slant within discussions of climate, but it exists. The alternative is to be open to the real possibility that what passes for a "consensus" today is simply incorrect.

You can't equate CO2 being essential to life to changes in CO2 levels being desirable - the two things are not related. In addition, I believe the general understanding is that O2 levels, not CO2, are related to diversity.

Alvin, CO2 levels relate to diversity over time, and to the general success of plant biota. My remark about CO2 relates to BobBob's concerns about pumping gases into the "life-supporting atmosphere." Carbon dioxide most definitely is life supporting. As to what a desirable level of atmospheric CO2, that presumes that there is some sort of "right amount."

Huh? No offense, but I don't think atomspheric CO2 is regulated by either. Annual cycles are correlated to other factors such as seasons, but I don't believe there are any cause and effect relationship otherwise between the factors you've cited.

You might want to consider how carbon dioxide is cycled through the atmosphere.

That said, just to bring it back - this thread really isn't about climate change.

Well, it sorta is - due to what the money is being spent on. My view is that it could be spent here for other things.
 

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