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Some news from China which concerns a UT focus as well...........real estate.

It looks like a very large Chinese developer, Evergrande is teetering financially.........while another (smaller) developer, Sinic is also in trouble, having lost 87% of its market-cap........and at least two others are experiencing 'pressure'.

See article here:

www.reuters.com

China Evergrande contagion concerns rile global markets

Growing fears of China Evergrande defaulting rattled global markets on Monday as investors worried about the potential impact on the wider economy dumped Chinese property stocks and sought refuge in safe-haven assets.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

Its possible the markets or the Chinese Central bank will find ways to smooth this out.............but this could definitely cause some serious waves.....
 
I don't think anyone had Kazakhstan on their list to be the flashpoint of the first geopolitical conflict of 2022. It sounds like there has been a legitimate attempt to overthrow the autocratic government that has been suppressed, just barely. They have turned to Russia for help as Russia has many interests in the country.

The far west of Kazakhstan comes very close to the far east of the Ukraine. Unsurprisingly, there now appears to be an attempt by Russia to say that the US has destabilised Kazakhstan to force it to pull away from Ukraine; note this week ahead are the scheduled talks between the Biden government and the Putin government over the Ukraine and NATO. However, there are well known long-time pro and anti-Russia tensions in the country, which also has a notable religious split between the minority Russians' Orthodox Church, and the large majority Kazakh Muslims. Of interest is that the eastern border of the country is China, the same part of China with the Uighyr minority that has its own situation. China is a major importer of Uranium from Kazakhstan, so they have a vested interest in its stability too. This could devolve into a very messy "land war in central Asia", though we're not near that yet. This is still at a point where it all could be snuffed out relatively quickly.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1478554155899920388
 
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In 'the world is going crazy' news............the former Japanese PM has apparently been shot.........

1657250320634.png


The above story didn't want to link through, so a report from The Guardian below:

www.theguardian.com

Shinzo Abe shooting: former Japanese prime minister attacked during speech

Former PM collapses after being shot during campaign speech ahead of upper house elections on Sunday
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
Northern Light said:
In 'the world is going crazy' news............the former Japanese PM has apparently been shot.........

View attachment 412286

The above story didn't want to link through, so a report from The Guardian below:

www.theguardian.com

Shinzo Abe shooting: former Japanese prime minister attacked during speech

Former PM collapses after being shot during campaign speech ahead of upper house elections on Sunday
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...
From everything I've been reading it would seem he is dead, Japan.just needs a doctor to officially certify it.

This is an absolutely huge deal, despite no longer PM Abe is still one of, if not the most, influential figures in Japan.
 
Havent said anything on this since so far its been mostly sabre rattling but it appears to be confirmed that Pelosi will be visiting Taiwan either tomorrow or Wednesday of this week.


That would mean its now up to China to respond and though I doubt they'll try to provoke a full scale war, it's definitely a dangerous situation and they will have to do something significant, especially giving the timing around both the anniversary of the PLA (today) and Xi seeking a 3rd term later this year at the bicentennial conference.

It's definitely possible US-China relations could almost completely collapse as a result of this visit and would most certainly hit their lowest point ever (since officially establishing relations with the PRC)
 
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kEiThZ said:
One of my big fears is that we walk away from the Russo-Ukrainian war thinking the Chinese as just as incompetent. And apparently this is the mistake the Taiwanese are making.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571529098035613699
Click to expand...
Agreed. So many people saying an amphibious assault on Taiwan is impossible for any military, that China doesn't have a large enough navy to contest even their local waters. I've even seen some suggest, that because Russia as the worlds second largest military, which has had overseas engagements, a long history of wars etc. has failed so poorly, that China has to fare worse because their military isn't even as strong as Russia's.

This is all wrong, the Chinese military (in my opinion) is the number 2 military, and significantly stronger than Russia's (especially post Ukraine invasion)

Their military is modern, their infrastructure is increasingly well built out. They have integrated command and control between ground, air and naval forces (something Russia has miserably failed at). In their recent drills following the Pelosi visit, they demonstrated they could integrate troops from different command theatres into their operations, set up mobile hospitals and use civillian infrastructure for war purposes.

Finally, and maybe the most substantial difference though, is the widespread support for a Taiwan invasion. While maybe not all Chinese troops support an invasion or feel its right, most have been so conditioned into genuinely believing invading Taiwan is defending the motherland. Nationalism is rampant, and so unlike in Ukraine where the Russian's don't want to be there, don't know why they're there etc. This would not be the case for China. Troops would know why they're there and I'd suggest most would believe in the cause.

Ohh and one other final point, Chinese troops have delegation and the initiative should a war actually break out. They know their objectives, lower ranking troops can assess the situation on the ground and act accordingly, they won't be left flailing without a commander and won't sit around till someone sends them an order to get on their feet. To what extent they're adaptable won't fully be known until a war actually breaks out, but it's significantly more than Russia is.

Please let me know if I missed anything major. My strength is geopolitics not military, but they're becoming increasingly intertwined so I've been trying to get a more comprehensive understanding.
 
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kEiThZ said:
I really do worry about this ...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1572073734386638851
Click to expand...
Also I agree, hell take the recent examples of Taiwanese soldiers throwing rocks at a drone. Initially Taiwan said the drone had a telescope lens and was far away, then the video went viral and they said, yea actually it was super close and authorized the Taiwanese forces to shoot drones down at their discretion.

The issue may not seem large at the outset but its one that points to the underlying systemic issues the thread mentions. The Taiwanese military is not at all like the Ukrainian one, they are massively underequiped and the Chinese forces are wearing them down daily (which further exacerbates the O&M issue highlighted)

People need to understand a hybrid war of attrition is already going on, where China is trying to significantly degrade the quality and readiness of the Taiwanese military.

Taiwan talks a lot about not wanting to be escalatory, which is commendable, but I've always gotten the sense that underneath the rhetoric, a large part of their lack of response to things such as incursions, air and sea, drone flights etc. is that Taiwan simply doesnt have the capabilites to respond in a meaningful way.
 
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