[AlvinofDiaspar]

Good to hear that Taiwan will be supplied with weapons from the US. Screw China.

The only weapon that makes sense in that scenario is nukes. They are useless (and frankly immoral) as a real weapon in this day and age, but mightily effective at ensuring status quo by their mere presence.

AoD

 

[Towered]

The only weapon that makes sense in that scenario is nukes. They are useless (and frankly immoral) as a real weapon in this day and age, but mightily effective at ensuring status quo by their mere presence.

AoD

I agree. I'm surprised an impulsive sociopath like Trump hasn't already done this.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

I agree. I'm surprised an impulsive sociopath like Trump hasn't already done this.

There is nothing to be gained from it - especially for him. Sticking with Taiwan is probably more useful to him as a way to leverage China than as a real political position - and I don't see the US under him to actually want to pay the price for that opportunism when push comes to shove.

At the same time, I am not convinced Xi is not impulsive enough either - especially given the centralization and personification of power in the Chinese state. That will make any climbdown that much harder - failure will directly affect personal prestige (can you imagine how addictive it is to be crowned the unifier - and how damaging it would be failing to do so after having taken action to such end? A climbdown would be impossible).

AoD

 

[Towered]

There is nothing to be gained from it - especially for him. Sticking with Taiwan is probably more useful to him as a way to leverage China than as a real political position - and I don't see the US under him to actually want to pay the price for that opportunism when push comes to shove.

At the same time, I am not convinced Xi is not impulsive enough either - especially given the centralization and personification of power in the Chinese state. That will make any climbdown that much harder - failure will directly affect personal prestige (can you imagine how addictive it is to be crowned the unifier - and how damaging it would be failing to do so after having taken action to such end? A climbdown would be impossible).

AoD

China could probably invade and take over Taiwan with relative ease very quickly if they really wanted to. The question is, who would go to bat for Taiwan if this situation were to occur? Personally I don't think the US or anyone else would have the appetite to go to war with China over it.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

China could probably invade and take over Taiwan with relative ease very quickly if they really wanted to. The question is, who would go to bat for Taiwan if this situation were to occur? Personally I don't think the US or anyone else would have the appetite to go to war with China over it.

They could always do that (just think human wave attacks a la Korean war) - the question is whether they are willing to pay the price of doing so. Unfortunately this posits they are rational in making their choices - and nothing guarantees misstep in that regard. It's one thing to make that kind of a decision where the power is relatively diffuse; it's another to make it by someone with an the audience of one (or none?).

AoD

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

China could probably invade and take over Taiwan with relative ease very quickly if they really wanted to. The question is, who would go to bat for Taiwan if this situation were to occur? Personally I don't think the US or anyone else would have the appetite to go to war with China over it.

I'm not so sure that those assumptions are necessarily true. Taiwan's geography would make it an insanely difficult prospect to conquer, and you can bet that they spent their entire existence shoring up all kinds of defenses in every mountain and forest on Taiwan. The entire population would be incredibly hostile towards an invasion and would probably fight to protect their home.

Strategically, you don't get a better chance to thwart Chinese expansion in South Asia and the Pacific than Taiwan, if you are the US/one of the many South China Sea neighbours already on high alert.

 

[Towered]

I'm not so sure that those assumptions are necessarily true. Taiwan's geography would make it an insanely difficult prospect to conquer, and you can bet that they spent their entire existence shoring up all kinds of defenses in every mountain and forest on Taiwan. The entire population would be incredibly hostile towards an invasion and would probably fight to protect their home.

Strategically, you don't get a better chance to thwart Chinese expansion in South Asia and the Pacific than Taiwan, if you are the US/one of the many South China Sea neighbours already on high alert.

Certainly there's a strong case for other powers like the US to use Taiwan as a strategic point to contain Chinese expansionism and aggression. I just think any American president would have a tough time getting buy-in from the average voter that it's a worthy cause to sacrifice many lives over.

 

[Bjays92]

Wisla is right. Taiwan has plenty of non nuclear options for defense. They are an island with extremely rugged terrain. Can they win a war against China? Absolutely not, but like with North Korea, they can invasion far too painful to be considered and that is what they are trying to do.

I'm also concerned Xi might pull the trigger while trump is a lame duck, and before Taiwan gets all the additional arms the US has recently sold to them.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Wisla is right. Taiwan has plenty of non nuclear options for defense. They are an island with extremely rugged terrain. Can they win a war against China? Absolutely not, but like with North Korea, they can invasion far too painful to be considered and that is what they are trying to do.

You are assuming China is rational towards pain through the Western perspective - I am arguing that unification by force is something that they will have an extreme pain threshold towards - if push comes to shove. High causalities to the PLA is almost a non-consequence to the leadership if they committed to the route of using force - if they go in, they will go all in - there won't be half-measures. Your only "out" for negating that mode of thought and preempting that outcome is having the capacity to inflict pain in a form that is consequential and asymmetrical.

AoD

 

[Towered]

You are assuming China is rational towards pain through the Western perspective - I am arguing that unification by force is something that they will have an extreme pain threshold towards - if push comes to shove. High causalities to the PLA is almost a non-consequence to the leadership if they committed to the route of using force - if they go in, they will go all in - there won't be half-measures. Your only "out" for negating that mode of thought and preempting that outcome is having the capacity to inflict pain in a form that is consequential and asymmetrical.

AoD

AKA, Fat Man and Little Boy in regards to the Empire of Japan.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

AKA, Fat Man and Little Boy in regards to the Empire of Japan.

The goal isn't to use them - if you had to, your deterrence had already failed. The goal is to encourage a more rational, calmer approach to the issue than reaching for gun and sabre rattling (though a school of thought also reasonably argued that the very presence of such capacity where none existed previously might lead to irrational actions; also it can lead to over-confidence and rashness - e.g. declaring independence - that would basically give no climbdown to your opponent and force a response)

AoD

 

[Bjays92]

You are assuming China is rational towards pain through the Western perspective - I am arguing that unification by force is something that they will have an extreme pain threshold towards - if push comes to shove. High causalities to the PLA is almost a non-consequence to the leadership if they committed to the route of using force - if they go in, they will go all in - there won't be half-measures. Your only "out" for negating that mode of thought and preempting that outcome is having the capacity to inflict pain in a form that is consequential and asymmetrical.

AoD

I'm assuming that making invading Taiwan an extremely high price to pay, would maybe cause for second thought in China and open up a window to climb down tensions following the end of the Trump administration.

I'm not suggesting making a Taiwan invasion painful is a viable long term strategy to prevent forceful reunification. Xi doesn't care about the cost of life, but there is public opinion on the line, and some Chinese may begin to question if invading Taiwan is worth the high price as it offers almost no additional value to China other than to pad their national pride and ego, which it is a thorn in the side of at the moment.

Invading Taiwan ultimately stems from the situation on the mainland. How things are going, what quality of life is like and how satisfied people are with the party etc etc. At the end of the day anything Xi does is about ruling with an iron fist and saving face in his own countries. That's what all the laughable statements about interfering in China's internal affairs are. They aren't meant to somehow persuade us, it's for a domestic audience. Xi has gotten away with a lot as a trade off for prosperity but he knows he still has to tread somewhat carefully. Only time will tell.

 

[AlbertC]

Pig guts fly as Taiwan lawmakers brawl over US pork imports

Nov 27, 2020

Taiwan's opposition legislators have thrown pig guts and exchanged blows in parliament amid a heated row over the easing of US pork imports.

They say a recent government decision to allow the import of US pork containing ractopamine - an additive banned for pig use in Taiwan and the European Union - is a health threat.

The ruling party denies the charge and called for a return to rational debate.

It is not uncommon for brawls to erupt in Taiwan's parliament.

Lawmakers from Taiwan's main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party hurled buckets of pig intestines towards Premier Su Tseng-chang on Friday to stop him from taking questions in parliament.

Pig guts fly as Taiwan lawmakers brawl over US pork imports

Opposition legislators hurled the intestines in a bitter dispute over the easing of US pork imports.

www.bbc.com

 

[Northern Light]

A report discussing increasing labour strife, desperation and even suicide over insanely long work hours in China's tech sector.

380 hours a month: In China, new anger over work expectations by internet giants

What is taking place amounts to “slavery of the smartest group of people in China,” said one former front-end engineer at Pinduoduo

www.theglobeandmail.com

 

[Johnny Au]

Super Nintendo World in Universal Studios Japan in Osaka delayed its opening the third time:

Third Time’s The Charm? Super Nintendo World Opening Canceled

Read this to learn why was Super Nintendo World opening canceled, whether it’s being rescheduled and what it means for future events.

www.portforwardinghub.com

Jump to 5:53

Its opening would've coincided with the 2020 Summer Olympics.