King of Kensington
Senior Member
34% of those polled support Ford when the undecided are included. But how many of the undecided will actually come out to vote?
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- Thread starter taal
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ladyscraper
man alive
The other candidates are selfish scum. If they cared about this city then they would have a meeting and decide who has the best shot at beating Ford and then have the rest drop out. It's for the good of the citizens!
MetroMan
Senior Member
I suppose Thomson is doing some real soul searching right now. She's not getting any traction whatsoever. I originally wanted her to be our next Mayor but I realized that her campaign was going nowhere. Rossi's desperate attempts for attention last week got him nowhere. Smitherman won't drop out but he lost 20 points already. Half his support is gone and continues to go. There is no way he's going to beat Ford.
That leaves the only other candidate who's got momentum on his side: Joe Pantalone. I know John Laschinger can do it. Joe's going to be the underdog and people like rooting for the underdog.
Mongo
Senior Member
Actual percentages of those polled including undecided voters:
Ford 34.5%
undecided 25%
Smitherman 15.75%
Pantalone 12.75%
Rossi 7.5%
Thomson 4.5%
I do think that Rob Ford has hit his ceiling, but if Smitherman and Pantalone both stay in and split the anti-Ford vote, and Thomson stays in and siphons off a crucial 5% of the vote, Ford will almost certainly end up in front on election day.
Ford 34.5%
undecided 25%
Smitherman 15.75%
Pantalone 12.75%
Rossi 7.5%
Thomson 4.5%
I do think that Rob Ford has hit his ceiling, but if Smitherman and Pantalone both stay in and split the anti-Ford vote, and Thomson stays in and siphons off a crucial 5% of the vote, Ford will almost certainly end up in front on election day.
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urbandreamer
recession proof
It's gonna come down to a race between Rossi and Ford. The rest are gigantic failures.
adma
Superstar
FYI he paraded with Rossi back at the Good Friday procession in Little Italy.
MetroMan
Senior Member
^ Urbandreamer. What are you smoking? Rossi just spent a week in the news with allegedly popular platforms, dolling out the best he could give out. His numbers still fell. Neither Smitherman nor Rossi have the momentum to gather enough support to beat Ford. The only other candidate on the upswing is Pantalone.
Joe represents what reasonable people see is a growing city, well respected internationally, a leader on many fronts, a city that we love despite some shortfalls. He has the entire left and most of the centre wide open for him. The other candidates are all trying to steal Ford's votes on the right and they're failing.
This is going to develop into a 3 man race between Ford, Smitherman and Pantalone. If Smitherman continues to fall and Joe's growth persists, by the next poll Pants will be in second, which should be enough for the rest of Smitherman's supporters to jump ship.
The good thing about today's press crowning of Ford as a near certain winner is that it's happening 5 weeks before the election. If this happened a week before e-day, everybody would be scrambling to avoid the inevitable. With 5 weeks to go, the desperate scramble has a lot of room to breath and organize.
Joe represents what reasonable people see is a growing city, well respected internationally, a leader on many fronts, a city that we love despite some shortfalls. He has the entire left and most of the centre wide open for him. The other candidates are all trying to steal Ford's votes on the right and they're failing.
This is going to develop into a 3 man race between Ford, Smitherman and Pantalone. If Smitherman continues to fall and Joe's growth persists, by the next poll Pants will be in second, which should be enough for the rest of Smitherman's supporters to jump ship.
The good thing about today's press crowning of Ford as a near certain winner is that it's happening 5 weeks before the election. If this happened a week before e-day, everybody would be scrambling to avoid the inevitable. With 5 weeks to go, the desperate scramble has a lot of room to breath and organize.
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adma
Superstar
John Tory is our only hope now? Do people regret supporting Miller back then now? Oh how you reap what you sow.
Actually, in the final stretch of the 2003 election, Tory and Miller were quite collegial t/w each other, to the point where it wouldn't have made much actual difference had "the other side" won. And I can't see how things would be much if any different had it been Mayor Tory retiring rather than Mayor Miller--Ford's still the "anti-status-quo" guy vs the same cast of characters.
And believe it or not, there are those on the "Miller left" who'd rather have Tory over Smitherman.
urbandreamer
recession proof
Err, laughable. It's the left that smokes too much weed.
Mr Party Pooperlone doesn't stand a chance.
Mr Party Pooperlone doesn't stand a chance.
adma
Superstar
One other thing to remember, as a measure of "strength of ground troops": the election signs haven't come up yet.
Which'll be worth watching, perhaps--after all, back in 2003, the immediate election-sign impression was that Tory and Miller were running away with it, and...where was Hall? If Smitherman's slide is expressed in an equivalent AWOLness of signage, well...
Northern Magus
Active Member
Mongo, I'm not sure your numbers for Smitherman, Pantalone and Rossi are correct: George's poll numbers are double Rossi's according to the media coverage.
Even if Sarah isn't soul-searching yet, her campaign donors probably are. Rocco's got another week to prove his momentum is for real. Joe's supporters will need to decide whether they want to help that which they despise the most, or strategically migrate.
George's two basic problems are that he has been wholly unable to set the media agenda or find a winning focus for his campaign. Instead, he's been stuck in reaction mode for 3 months now, and his polling numbers have shrunk accordingly. And he's not helping himself by studiously trying to duplicate the John Kerry and Barbara Hall campaigns.
Even if Sarah isn't soul-searching yet, her campaign donors probably are. Rocco's got another week to prove his momentum is for real. Joe's supporters will need to decide whether they want to help that which they despise the most, or strategically migrate.
George's two basic problems are that he has been wholly unable to set the media agenda or find a winning focus for his campaign. Instead, he's been stuck in reaction mode for 3 months now, and his polling numbers have shrunk accordingly. And he's not helping himself by studiously trying to duplicate the John Kerry and Barbara Hall campaigns.
MetroMan
Senior Member
BREAKING: David Miller will be announcing his endorsement of Joe Pantalone this week.
This sounds obvious, but Miller has been saying that he doesn't want to publicly get involved in the race to replace him. An insider from Adam Giambrone's camp just told me that Laschinger convinced Miller to step in to "nominate" Joe as the official anti-Ford candidate.
This sounds obvious, but Miller has been saying that he doesn't want to publicly get involved in the race to replace him. An insider from Adam Giambrone's camp just told me that Laschinger convinced Miller to step in to "nominate" Joe as the official anti-Ford candidate.
urbandreamer
recession proof
BREAKING: Joe Miller_Pants is toast. An endorsement by Miller will shift everyone's attention to the right. Every homeowner I've met in Toronto hates Miller's regime.
MetroMan
Senior Member
From the way you make it sound, you're meeting thousands of home owners. I know plenty of home owners who voted for and would vote for Miller again.
I'm sure Joe's campaign has been deliberating at length on whether to associate with Miller. I agree with Laschinger that now is the time to pull the ace out and really give Joe's profile a kick in the pants that will put him on front pages.
urbandreamer
recession proof
I do meet thousands of homeowners...via work.