Funny, and I thought I was going to go for Tory without any hesitation.
But I'm very much liking the sound of this article:
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/737735--smitherman-promises-new-ideas-for-toronto
In particular, the bit about business property taxes ... I thought being on the liberal side he'd avoid the issue.
Rossi chaired Tory's 2003 campaign. It is difficult to see the right running two well-funded candidates, and even more difficult to see what possible critique each of these guys could have for the other given their shared (if unsuccessful) history.
I just can't see Tory running against Rossi. Maybe Rossi's just being a good liberal and running as a spoiler to clear the way for Smitherman?
Maybe he's doing this as a favour to Tory so Tory doesn't have to suffer the ignominy of losing again?
Inquiring minds are wondering how Warren Kinsella would survive trying to serve both the Tory and Rossi campaigns? He might have to clone himself. Ewwww.
By my count, this makes it Rossi vs. Smitherman on the main card, with the undercard consisting of Joey Pants (maybe Shelley Carroll or Giambrone) duking it out to represent the NDP vs. Minnan-Wong (maybe Thompson) from the hard right (I am deliberately discounting Mammoliti's and Ford's candidacies as irrelevant).
Provided the foregoing is correct (i.e. no Tory), I propose the following table of odds:
Furious George - 2 to 1 - Way in front in terms of grassroots organization and name recognition. Could still be undone by eHealth, Samsung, heroin addiciton and whatever other skeletons he's got in the closet.
Rocco Rossi - 4 to 1 - 5 weeks ago, I told someone that Rossi was a 150 to 1 longshot. "
Rossi's name seems to crop up every few years because he's a political bagman and a local boy, but he has zero name recognition and there are too many other viable candidates with whom his candidacy would conflict. Still, based on connections alone, he needs to be mentioned. Who knows -- he could be next year's Stephen LeDrew, another former political bagman whose political dreams disintegrated at their first exposure to sunlight." In retrospect, I suppose I was mostly wrong, but we'll see how much the name recognition thing costs him. Even in a losing cause, if he plays his cards right, he might just get a bowtie and a CP24 job.
NDP candidate - 10 to 1 - As much as I like at least one of the names I mentioned above in the NDP slot, it's not going to happen for them this time around. This is strictly an exercise in name recognition building (for Carroll or Giambrone) and the NDP's need to keep its municipal muscles moving.
Sentient right-wing candidate - 15 to 1 - Plenty of support from The Sun and 680 News will only guarantee the favour of the knuckle-dragging 20%, many of whom don't vote. Rossi would have to crash and burn AND Tory would have to decline to step into his shoes for Minnan-Wong/Thompson to have much of a shot.
Rob Ford vs. Georgio Mammoliti - too gross to watch; plus, it's a sequel to their earlier rumble-in-the-saucer, and sequels always suck.