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^ As I predicted earlier. If the candidates don't address the concerns of the suburban residents, Ford will get ahead. Sometimes folks in these parts (and from the looks of it, many of the candidates) just don't understand how disaffected most 416 residents (particularly at the edges of this city) are.
 
Well, let's digest those numbers for a bit.

It's common for the electorate's focus to narrow to the top candidates in the last couple of months before an election. Considering Rossi is in last place, let's assume his support goes to other candidates. While he's running a right leaning campaign, he's definitely nowhere near as far right as Ford. I predict most of his support will go to Smitherman. That would still leave Ford in the lead. Let's take Thompson's numbers and I believe that very few -- if any -- of her supporters would go to Ford. They would go to Smitherman and/or Pantalone (i.e. I'm a Pantalone supporter who would vote for Sarah if she had the numbers to compete).

So in summary, if Pantalone and Smitherman fight it off to the end as the anti-Ford candidate, Rob Ford is Toronto's next Mayor. If either one of them convincingly consolidates those points, Ford will be way behind and we have Mayor Joe or George.
 
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I think at a fundamental level, those who will vote for RF have already decided; I suspect the undecided are the ones staying away from him, but also not particularly keen on Smitherman either. It will be interesting to see how the next two months play out.

Interesting article re: corruption from the Star - and how Doug Holyday is distancing himself from RF.

AoD
 
Still got 30% undecided - there's a long way to go.

I think the left will begrudgingly start to rally around Smitherman if these sorts of polls continue. We'll start seeing a strong "Anyone but Ford" sentiment.
 
Graphic Matt -- of course! How could I forget? Alvin makes a good point that the undecided will go to candidates other than Ford.

I think Pantalone will get ahead. Laschinger's influence is starting to show and it seems that his campaign following the kind of path Miller took in 2003.

I do wish Sarah Thompson had a better campaign. She has the potential to be the kind of Mayor that we need right now: a good manager able to fix poorly functioning components of the city all the while striving for high ambitions in growth.
 
I agree but if Pantalone pulls ahead, he may be the one who anti-Ford voters get behind. Whoever is in third place will inevitably bleed a significant percentage of their support.

I'll get behind Smitherman if he has the lead on Pantalone towards the end and if Ford is still a threat.
 
What if the undecided's all evenly split their vote across all the unFords. In which case realFord may actually still win, no?
 
Coltaine79 said:
What if the undecided's all evenly split their vote across all the unFords. In which case realFord may actually still win, no?
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To be perfectly honest with you, that is the same line of thinking that I had, only the inverse motive: "anybody but Smitherfraud", that turned me away from supporting Sarah Thomson and gravitate towards Ford. For me, I just can't chance the centre-right splitting enough between Thomson/Rossi/Ford to allow either Pantalone or Smtherman to win.
 
MetroMan said:
With Smitherman's anti-Ford website being released, let's see how these numbers look in a couple of weeks.

If they solidify, I always wanted to live in Vancouver or Montreal for a few years... :rolleyes:
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Those are all things the general public's already well aware of by now. I doubt that'll influence the vote significantly. I'd rather have Mr. Smitherman explain why he proposed to put wind turbines off the Scarborough Bluffs. This is all so ironic considering that Smitherman used to be Health Minister, and now he’s forcing legislation that may negatively affect the health of Ontario residents. And keep in mind this was the same guy who was going to solve the senior resident care problem by increasing the amount of time that a senior could be allowed to sit in dirty diapers. Is that what a Smitherman led Toronto's going to look like? :rolleyes: Let's discuss the issues people, and not chumped up parlour tricks.

And MetroMan, you ain't moving no where; if people like myself had to tolerate the Miller years I don't see what the big deal is if the right of spectrum gets a turn at the wheel. There's no reason to feel ashamed to live here under a Conservative-style gov't. You may find it to be the best of both worlds.
 
GraphicMatt said:
I think the left will begrudgingly start to rally around Smitherman if these sorts of polls continue. We'll start seeing a strong "Anyone but Ford" sentiment.
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This is me as well. An election is so uninspiring and unmotivating when one feels as if they need to vote for "the best we've got" instead of the "best person for the job."
 
Fresh Start said:
Those are all things the general public's already well aware of by now. I doubt that'll influence the vote significantly. I'd rather have Mr. Smitherman explain why he proposed to put wind turbines off the Scarborough Bluffs. This is all so ironic considering that Smitherman used to be Health Minister, and now he’s forcing legislation that may negatively affect the health of Ontario residents.
Click to expand...

Is there any kind of NIMBY bullshit that you won't support? Seriously, now you're anti-windmill?
 
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