[GraphicMatt]

I think there'd be enormous pressure on Adam Vaughan to challenge Ford in 2014 if things went that way.

 

[toto]

You don't think there will be a much better progressive candidate in 4 years? Even a scandal plagued Giambrone would have performed better than Pantalone.

Let's hope there are more progressive candidates next time.

I didn't say he was going to win in 4 years. I just think Joe is looking to the future because there is little hope for him in the present.

 

[Towered]

Adam Vaughan is a shoo-in for mayor in 2014, especially if Ford gets elected now - he'll be best able to undo all the damage and stupidity of that simpleton.

Ford is the political equivalent of a juvenile, selfish message board troll.

 

[taal]

After watching parts of this final debate I can say whole heartily this was by far and large Ford's best debate ... no he didn't have any different points ... but he was actually able to articulate answers to various questions ... particularly without falling back on the same 'counselors expenses!' - sigh, there were still quite a few gravy train references.

Anyway, I think the key for him - he doesn't do well in larger groups - with only 2 candidates (and yes, Pants - while not all out attacking Smiterman did very much let up on Ford).

I think the take away from this was it went pretty bad for Smitherman - only in the sense that Ford came off as credible for once. I do think quite a few folks only catch the final debate, if that. It's also likely more of smitherman's supporters do watch these debates or those on the fence.

 

[GenerationW]

She looked familiar to me. I wonder if I had seen her at Ford's office at Warden and Lawrence when I dropped by???

You're really reaching with that one.

I'm really surprised nobody here has mentioned Justin Trudeau's high profile endorsement of Smitherman last night.

Sort of tells you something, doesn't it?

 

[Fac1]

After watching parts of this final debate I can say whole heartily this was by far and large Ford's best debate ... no he didn't have any different points ... but he was actually able to articulate answers to various questions ... particularly without falling back on the same 'counselors expenses!' - sigh, there were still quite a few gravy train references.

Anyway, I think the key for him - he doesn't do well in larger groups - with only 2 candidates (and yes, Pants - while not all out attacking Smiterman did very much let up on Ford).

I think the take away from this was it went pretty bad for Smitherman - only in the sense that Ford came off as credible for once. I do think quite a few folks only catch the final debate, if that. It's also likely more of smitherman's supporters do watch these debates or those on the fence.

I think the absence of Rossi helped Ford a lot. Smitherman was attacked from both sides whereas in previous debates Ford was getting pummeled by both Rossi and Smitherman. A one-on-one debate would have been nice...

 

[Prometheus The Supremo]

i've heard the "gravy train" reference so many times, it feels like i'm getting it intravenously...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7csOVmn2OT4#t=07m5s

 

[lafard]

this class war bullshit is getting annoying. All the time right wingers complain that some nebulous left 'elite' is being mean to them whereas the candidates they support are the actual elite - old money gluttinous rich. Ford is anything BUT a common man.

I don't understand it - who in Toronto are the 'elite'? Marathon runners? Bicyclists? Or is it the doctors? Lawyers? Architects? Professors? In other words, people who work 60-70 + hours/week on average after spending the better part of their lives in school? Give me a break. We're all the in same fucking pot.

It's almost certainly one of those "fear of the outsider" type things.

Downtowners focus heavily on their careers/stay in school for up to a decade longer, tend to get married late if at all, frequently gay, children are the minority, can take or leave the back yard and the SUV. The generally short commute and cost effectiveness of downtown life (combined with carfree/childfree/professional salary) means they [we] have added leisure time and often money to enjoy Toronto's amenities and absorb the various Millertaxes with little complaint. Outsiders because we're different, and elite because our lifestyle leaves us with extra money even if our salaries are the same.

For some of them, it's much like immigration. They feel it's a direct threat to their preferred way of life, even if it isn't.

 

[nfitz]

Which poll are you referring to now? last I saw, even on the 'surface' the poll had Ford & Smitherman 41% and 40%.

Still not digging deeper. There are 4 more factors to consider. 1) Undecided vote looks as though it's more for Smitherman than Ford. 2) Pantalone support is soft (according to Nanos poll) and some will likely run for the hills as it's clear he has about 15% compared to 40% for Smitherman (today's Union endorsements of Smitherman are a symptom of this). 3) Polls showing people who are most likely to vote show that Ford voters are least likely to actually vote (perhaps it's the long drives they have to the polling stations in the suburbs), and 4) traditonally there is a much higher turnout in the downtown and urban wards than the suburban wards.

 

[Fac1]

4) traditonally there is a much higher turnout in the downtown and urban wards than the suburban wards.

Do you have a link/source for this? I'd like to see a breakdown of voting patterns if it exists.

 

[ssiguy2]

The issue importance has come full circle, with the TTC now being the most important issue and Rob Ford's rant on city spending in 2nd place:

All Smitherman needs to do is show 2 cards for the next 7 days:

Even the least interested in politics will understand the clear choice.

Where did you get that map?
Smitherman stated his desire for a Pearson link but he doesn't explain the kind of technology, the stations, if this will be part of the TTC or GO, the fare integration, frequency etc. If you have a link or info I would appreciate it.

 

[jn_12]

Do you have a link/source for this? I'd like to see a breakdown of voting patterns if it exists.

I did this back in September. It obviously predates Thompson and Rossi dropping out so some of the conclusions aren't realistic now (such as Pants winning). I still have the spreadsheet that I used to create it so tomorrow morning I'll post some updated predictions making use of the latest polls and previous results.

Did a bit of a breakdown of Urban/Suburban voting tendencies, turnouts, etc from the last two elections (since the data was available). I divided up the results by ward and sorted them by downtown and surburban wards making Eglinton, the Humber River, The lake and Vic Park the boundaries. This provided 15 downtown wards and 29 suburban wards. Obviously this isn't perfect because someone who lives on the north side of Eglinton would be a suburbanite while their neighbour across the street would be downtown, but that's ok. (Note that for 2003, because they didn't include the 'total' for each ward I didn't take the time to add up all the "others", so the results maybe off by a percent or two)

2003
Downtown
% of pop. turnout: 31.26%, % of total voters: 38%
Voted for - Miller: 56.7%, Hall: 9.25%, Tory/Nunziata: 34.05%
Suburban
% of pop. turnout: 24.57%, % of total voters: 62%
Voted for - Miller: 38.14%, Hall: 10.37%, Tory/Nunziata: 51.49%

2006
Downtown
% of pop. turnout: 26.10%, % of total voters: 36%
Voted for - Miller: 64.55%, Pitfield: 27.1%, other: 8.35%
Suburban
% of pop. turnout: 22.40%, % of total voters: 64%
Voted for - Miller: 52.72%, Pitfield: 35.25% , other: 12.03%


So what does this tell us? I think it says a few things (some of which are common sense):
1. In a seemingly close election, downtown voters turn out in proportionally greater numbers (though both areas increased by 40,000 voters). If Ford is perceived as the favourite to win, the downtown will come out in even greater droves than it did in 2003, I think.

2. In the absence of a "centre" candidate like in 2006, centre voters are probably more more likely to vote for the left wing candidate (perhaps it's just a coincidence that Hall + Miller = Miller 2006, but unless all those voters simply didn't show up, accounting for the lower turnout substantially more of them probably voted for Miller). This, to me, means that those Hall voters would go to Smitherman or Pantalone before Rossi (and certainly before Ford)

3. In an election where there is both a moderate and heavily right leaning conservative (Tory/Nunziata), 2 out of 5 suburban voters still voted for Miller. Perhaps some were more anti-Tory than pro-Miller, but that somehow seems doubtful since Tory wasn't the "bad guy" in the election. Both candidates were high quality.

4. Even though I haven't displayed the stats here (I certainly can provide my messy excel file to anyone who wants to see it), there's a fairly strong correlation between the beliefs of who Downtown voters elect as their Mayor and who they elect as their Councillor, while in the suburbs it's somewhat random. To give an example, 52% of people in Ford's ward voted for Miller in 2006. This also potentially shows just how strong incumbency is as well (there's been numerous studies on municipal elections being overwhelmingly favourable to the incumbent). This suggests that the only real opportunities for change within council are in those wards where the councillor is not returning. So, simply because someone might vote for a right leaning candidate for mayor, this will probably not impact who they vote for as councillor.

5. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, even in an extremely competitive election such as in 2003, only 1/4th of suburban people voted. This is why I don't think Ford is going to obtain 35% of the vote. He would need approximately 250,000 votes to get that number. If we assume Ford's downtown support is probably at Nunziata levels or at best only slightly better (I'd say that's not far off) and Nunziata received 6800 votes downtown, Ford would need to win 61% of all of the votes in the suburbs to reach 35% support across the city. Considering in 2003, 38% of suburban voters voted for Miller, and another 10% voted for Hall, you can probably infer that almost 50% of the suburbs would not vote for Ford. There's no way anyone swings that violently to the right, especially with 5 candidates to choose from.

Based on these stats, I don't know how Ford wins unless there's an even split across the board. Even if we gave Ford half of the suburban vote (which seems unlikely), that's only 31% across the city. Realistically, I bet he pulls in high 20s, but I don't think that's enough once the downtown decides who its candidate of choice will be (smitherman or Pantalone). I actually think that if Miller comes out at the right time with an endorsement of Pantalone, and if he can get some good press, Pantalone might come out on top.

 

[Action Jackson]

I think it's interesting people in Canada find it downright embarassing that the US allows figures like Sarah Palin and Christine O'Donnell to hold public office. Yet here we have Rob Ford as an actual legitimate possibility for mayor and he is quite possibly an even bigger political joke than either of those two. I don't think anyone from Toronto has the moral high ground to mock US politics anymore.

Christine O'Donnell and Sarah Palin make Rob Ford look like a fucking genius. Ford has political experience and has a business beyond that. Palin is an ex-reporter who got to be governor on her looks, O'Donnell rode to political fame on the back of media-stirred hatred of those in power, seemingly not caring if they get lunatics in their place. Ford isn't up to being mayor, but comparing him to Palin or O'Donnell is insulting to him.

 

[Fac1]

Christine O'Donnell and Sarah Palin make Rob Ford look like a fucking genius. Ford has political experience and has a business beyond that. Palin is an ex-reporter who got to be governor on her looks, O'Donnell rode to political fame on the back of media-stirred hatred of those in power, seemingly not caring if they get lunatics in their place. Ford isn't up to being mayor, but comparing him to Palin or O'Donnell is insulting to him.

Is George Dubya Bush more apt?

 

[Spoonman]

Does anybody know if any bars/pubs downtown have traditionally served as de facto hotspots for election night coverage (kind of like during the World Cup)? I want to go out with some politically-minded friends to either drown our sorrows or celebrate (either way, we're getting smashed).