The problem being there are no obvious parallels in the graph. Natural immunity will play some part, and while Covid-zero policies have protected vulnerable people and the vaccine resistant, Omicron has made zero-Covid policies nearly impossible. We’re seeing flat graphs with recent spikes in countries with similar zero-Covid policies like Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and (ignoring the initial start of the pandemic) China.
You can’t outrun Covid at this point. It’s here to stay.
Barring any major mutation and the fact we’re going into warmer weather, I don’t feel we’ll see another huge spike like they’re having.