afransen
Senior Member
It's been called by several major outlets for Biden. I would be more worried about PA and Nevada.
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The county concept in the US is totally different than here (Ontario) and is generally a much stronger senior level of government. I'm not sure there is square inch of the lower 48 that isn't contained within a county. I can imagine the politics that would be involved in dividing an existing county. The Alaska borough system, where they exists, is kinda sorta like the southern county system (where created) except there are no internal municipalities (single tier in our terms). I actually find our system a bit of dog's breakfast, but way off topic.
Trump was smart to play up to Cubans in Florida, but dumb to attack John McCain’s legacy in Arizona.He's going to win Arizona and very likely Nevada.
Biden has surpassed Obama for most votes ever for a presidential candidate (popular vote). Obama got 69,498,516 in 2008. Biden is currently over 71 million.
Still a big miss, but within the realms of possibility in the models. Nate Silver was getting pretty defensive.Biden is at over 72 million, Trump at 68.6 million, Both Candidates are up over 6 million votes from 2016.
Still millions of ballots to count in states like California and texas so Biden may go to like 75 million and Trump over 70 million.
Epic turnout.
The popular vote margin looks to be heading to about 3.5% or so, polls suggested around 8-9%.
Polling needs to change, move away from the surveys, robocalls, questionnaires and active participating with the subject population. Instead start passively profiling the people into narrower and narrower groups. Cuban Americans, then male, then age, then education, etc, boil it down until you have a small group of perhaps a few hundred people. Then do it again, and again, and again. This is what Google and Facebook analytics does. I bet someone at Google knew how the vote was going just by searching everyone's gmail, search history and google drive contents.Still a big miss, but within the realms of possibility in the models. Nate Silver was getting pretty defensive.
It's interesting that the polling error has now been wrong in the same direction several times. One wonders what is driving this. It can't really be that Trump votes are conspiracy theorists who think pollsters are part of the deep state, right?
Its been great for Biden but this was going to be a blue wave in short this is a nightmare for the Dems.
Noo...Georgia is a nightmare for the Dems. Biden or Trump could lose it by .01 percent of the vote. If Biden wins Georgia and loses everything else Trump and BIden tie.
Biden needs to win two of the following
Arizona
Nevada
Georgia
Pennsylvania
North Carolina (unlikely)
New results rolling in are working in his favour. Biden will likely eke out a win.
Still inexcusable not to win by bigger margins during a pandemic and recession.