Biden and Turkey are likely to clash over US support for the Syrian Kurdish YPG – seen as a cornerstone in the fight against Islamic State by the Democrats, but by the Turks as a branch of the PKK Turkish Kurd terrorist group. Trump’s haphazard diplomacy has seen US influence across the Middle East decline with Russia and Turkey ever more willing to fill the vacuum.
No immediate statement came from the Saudi royal court, which is heavily dependent on US defence hardware to protect itself. The left in the Democratic party wants “an end to forever wars”, especially a withdrawal of US support for the Saudi war in Yemen. The Saudis also want to end the disastrous intervention so long as it does not leave Yemen under complete control of Houthi rebels.
Israel’s leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, a close ally of Trump, sent Biden formal congratulations without naming him president-elect, but Israel will want reassurances about the US maintaining pressure on Iran and its continued support for the normalisation of relations between Israel and Arab states.
In Asia, most countries are looking for a continued tough line on
China and also more detail on the balance between cooperation and confrontation with the world’s rising super power.
Angela Merkel said the “transatlantic friendship is irreplaceable if we are to meet the great challenges of this time”, while Macron said
Europe and the US “have a lot to do to overcome today’s challenges. Let’s work together!”
The European council president, Charles Michel, listed “Covid-19, multilateralism, climate change and international trade” as areas of future cooperation, while the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, spoke of a “great day for US and Europe”, and of the need to “rebuild our partnership”.
Biden’s key foreign policy priorities, apart from making appointments to the state department subject to congressional approval, are likely to be an offer to cooperate in the fight against coronavirus, an immediate commitment to rejoin the UN Paris climate agreement and, more broadly, to promise a change in tone toward traditional US allies. An early visit to Brussels either to meet EU or Nato leaders would symbolise this approach.
Despite Biden’s adviser Tony Blinken talking last month of ending the “artificial trade war” with the EU, the EU’s special foreign policy adviser, Nathalie Tocci, said she anticipated that protectionism is here to stay. “Election results show that Trumpism is alive and kicking and it is something that he [Biden] cannot ignore,” she said.
The Biden team will also have to decide whether it is worth promising to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal that Trump deserted in 2016. Many Iran specialists are urging Biden to go for a quick win and lift sanctions in return for an Iranian commitment to abide by its commitments in the accord. Debate within Iran is shaped by presidential elections in June, with some saying an olive branch from Biden will help the cause of reformists in its elections.