[micheal_can]

Why have they never gone public with it?

I don't buy it at all. Especially post Covid. Now that traffic consolidation and decreased demands looks likely to knock off a decade of growth from commercial aviation. Let's see that same group publish a more up-to-date analysis and include the cost of all the servicing infrastructure that has to be paid for.

I'll bet the airlines start slashing routes as they will not be profitable. Take the ones from Northern ON. Before the mess, you could fly direct from Timmins, SSM, North Bay and Sudbury. I could see that changing. It might even mean bigger planes to Sudbury and it becomes a regional hub. If that happens, that could be 1/4 of the traffic. Now, do that throughout the country and you might start seeing a lot of space created in Pearson.

I don't doubt all the air carriers are looking into the options to survive and turn a profit.

 

[kEiThZ]

I'll bet the airlines start slashing routes as they will not be profitable. Take the ones from Northern ON. Before the mess, you could fly direct from Timmins, SSM, North Bay and Sudbury. I could see that changing. It might even mean bigger planes to Sudbury and it becomes a regional hub. If that happens, that could be 1/4 of the traffic. Now, do that throughout the country and you might start seeing a lot of space created in Pearson.

I don't doubt all the air carriers are looking into the options to survive and turn a profit.

The consolidation of frequencies I described before will now accelerate simply because the passenger numbers aren't there to maintain as many frequencies to all those destinations.

There will also be a consolidation of airlines. So no competing carriers offering three flights each. Instead, you'll get one carrier offering 4 flights. That might not apply as much domestically. But we will see that on transborder and international. Particularly in Montreal with the AC-Transat merger.

And no Sudbury won't be a hub. Airlines don't build at cities that can barely fill a handful of Q400s a day. Hubs are exclusively built at cities with high origin/destination demand. That's why they are all exclusively in large metros. If Ottawa (national capital) and Winnipeg (geographic centre) with strategic qualities and populations of a million, can't qualify to serve as hubs, cities like Sudbury aren't going to come close to consideration.

 

[kEiThZ]

The more I read on the state of aviation and infrastructure investment plans, the more obvious it becomes how doomed Pickering is, in the post-Covid era. Between the government pushing HFR (which would divert Ottawa pax to Montreal), the economic decline killing commercial aviation growth for a while to come and the likelihood that financing for this by the private sector would be close to impossible at the moment (just look at the state of the bond market), this proposal is toast.

The only plausible way out is some regional deal for a GA/Exec Aviation airport replacing Buttonville, Markham and Oshawa. Would those airport operators really be interested though? And even if they agree, who is going to finance this?

Also, HFR with though service at Union and GO RER with UPE will make Pearson itself so much more accessible from Durham Region. Get dropped off at a GO station and you can reach Pearson in an hour by transit. Hope many pax would choose a Pickering airport with a limited selection of flights in that kind of scenario?

 

[rbt]

The more I read on the state of aviation and infrastructure investment plans, the more obvious it becomes how doomed Pickering is, in the post-Covid era.

I dunno. Seems like the perfect time to demolish Pearson due to lack of use, we can redevelop it as condos and parkland, which leaves the door open for Pickering.

 

[micheal_can]

I dunno. Seems like the perfect time to demolish Pearson due to lack of use, we can redevelop it as condos and parkland, which leaves the door open for Pickering.

We could also demolish Billy Bishop. Turn it into a park and more condos. We could even install a gondola to get to it.

 

[pw20]

The more I read on the state of aviation and infrastructure investment plans, the more obvious it becomes how doomed Pickering is, in the post-Covid era. Between the government pushing HFR (which would divert Ottawa pax to Montreal), the economic decline killing commercial aviation growth for a while to come and the likelihood that financing for this by the private sector would be close to impossible at the moment (just look at the state of the bond market), this proposal is toast.

The only plausible way out is some regional deal for a GA/Exec Aviation airport replacing Buttonville, Markham and Oshawa. Would those airport operators really be interested though? And even if they agree, who is going to finance this?

Also, HFR with though service at Union and GO RER with UPE will make Pearson itself so much more accessible from Durham Region. Get dropped off at a GO station and you can reach Pearson in an hour by transit. Hope many pax would choose a Pickering airport with a limited selection of flights in that kind of scenario?

The analogy that flying will bounce back as it did after 9-11, which some people have used, is false. Pickering is likely DOA:

• Economic recession for foreseeable future --> who's building this? What's the business case? Who's financing it?
• Increased safety practices to some degree assuaged public concerns of getting sick in air and I do think we'll start to see temperature scans at airports but the ability to assuage consumer concerns about where they're going and what they'll bring back will cripple international travel for the short run
• I do think there will be some push to have more Zoom meetings and few business travel

There are probably other factors, but I'm not sure of the business case for any sort of airport investment in the short term.

 

[kEiThZ]

The analogy that flying will bounce back as it did after 9-11, which some people have used, is false.

Agree. Mark Brooks has used this on his advocacy site, showing traffic recovery after 9/11 and the 2008 GFC. I agree that this is a fundamental misunderstanding of how this pandemic will play out and how it will impact aviation. Most importantly:

...the ability to assuage consumer concerns about where they're going and what they'll bring back will cripple international travel for the short run

You can't get care as easily if you travel and get infected. Not to mention that you may not be able to travel back if there are strict restrictions on traveling with any sign of illness. Given that the average incubation period to symptoms is about 5 days, that is going to kill a lot of Asian and European business travel and vacations. Maybe even some trips to Sun destinations. All on pause till there's at least a vaccine and one that is globally deployed. In the very short term, there will simply be strict restrictions, either by governments or by employers wanting to protect their employees.

Who's financing it?

This is a question that Mark has grown quite silent about. He's said before that there's private sector interest. I don't see it. And given the collapse of the bond market where established companies are now paying 8-10%, there's absolutely no way such a risky venture could attract private sector financing. In 5-10 years? Maybe.

I do think there will be some push to have more Zoom meetings and few business travel

Yep. This will impact aggregate demand for travel. That said, I don't think that we've somehow hit peak travel and won't ever surpass 2019 levels. It's just a shift in the timeline.

 

[micheal_can]

I feel this airport has always been DOA. With other airports within easier reach, this seemed way too much like a pipe dream. Granted, at first, I drank the good koolaid, but after looking at the other airports and the overall facts, it just seemed too much like Mirabel.

 

[north-of-anything]

I read that part of the motivation to build Pickering in the 1970s was because Montreal was getting a new big airport as well (Mirabel). I think that says it all...

 

[kEiThZ]

I feel this airport has always been DOA. With other airports within easier reach, this seemed way too much like a pipe dream. Granted, at first, I drank the good koolaid, but after looking at the other airports and the overall facts, it just seemed too much like Mirabel.

Mirabel has value as an industrial facility, with a good chunk of Montreal's aerospace sector based there. We wouldn't get that in Pickering. That could, however, be built up in Hamilton more. And there's actually a really strong argument to put in the money to develop Hamilton substantially more as an industrial airport and an LCC alternative for the GTA. It would be a lot cheaper than Pickering.

 

[kEiThZ]

Looks like other countries are requiring full rail integration for their airline bailouts. Including a drastic reduction in regional flying.

Air France must cut emissions, domestic flights for aid: minister

Air France will have to cut its carbon emissions and domestic flights as conditions for government financial support, France's finance minister said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

These trends don't bode well for new airports.

 

[micheal_can]

Air Canada Flights Could Resume By December In A Limited Capacity

Travel is entirely off the table for the time being. Flights have been grounded and borders have been closed, rendering the idea almost entirely impossible. However, Air Canada flights could be resuming by the end of the year.

www.narcity.com

I doubt air travel will bounce back fast, or soon. I'll bet that even a year from now YYZ will not be near the same capacity it was at a year ago.

If I may make a prediction, gone are the days of cheap flights. Business/First Class sized seating and spacing will be the new normal. That does mean the cheap flight to somewhere warm is likely going to double, if not higher. Once the pandemic is over, and we have a vaccine, and live goes back to "normal" We will probably see things like fuel surcharges and baggage fees disappear.

In short, the future of flying is going to be much different.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I took a ride through Pickering today and loved the gravel and winding concession roads, farms just nothingness. I say leave this alone. I'd love to buy an existing small house around here.

 

[Tim MacDonald]

Absolutely. Now, more than ever, we need to be growing our food locally and not depending on foreign countries 12,000km away.

 

[SaugeenJunction]

Article about the airport from CBC:

Environmentalists, farmers renew push to shelve Pickering airport, save prime farmland