[kEiThZ]

Yes, people generally like to hear lies that they want to be true.

Such is politics. Would the LPC have been re-elected if they were honest about bringing a million new residents per year?

I put that post there because the politics is interesting here. Kinda hard to portray PP as the Boogeyman when he's talking about supporting Transit Oriented Development to help seniors and students without a car. Did the LPC plan to run against this guy?

The LPC really seems clueless about both sentiment and how they look with some of their pronouncements. Very much reminds me of the end of Wynne's term.

 

[yrt+viva=1system]

The LPC really seems clueless about both sentiment and how they look with some of their pronouncements. Very much reminds me of the end of Wynne's term.

I am also starting to see the resemblance.

 

[kEiThZ]

I am also starting to see the resemblance.

I kinda knew Wynne had lost the plot when she announced the free college plan and my normally left leaning wife still paying off student loans and having a tough time with the job market reacted with real hostility. When you lose the middle class, you lose elections.

Most parties are smart enough to push their agenda just enough to move the middle class along. It's a fine balancing act. Do too much and you'll get a backlash. But if you do nothing, you will achieve nothing and get stale in office. I can see exactly this backlash forming against the LPC lately.

My wife is also the voter who supported the LPC twice because of environmental policy. And now she's so annoyed about housing, cost of living, childcare availability that she will not vote LPC again. She'll vote orange or green. Sample size of 1. But it's telling for me.

 

[Towered]

There are still 2 years until the next election. A lot can happen in that time.

 

[afransen]

I think people are rather uniquely angry right now about cost of living and interest rate rises. If, over the next two years, conditions normalize and a new issue becomes top of mind it could shift the dynamic. The recent cabinet shuffle did not give much confidence that the government is taking the need to pivot seriously. I am rather baffled by the sudden change of course on immigration policy. Is it lack of control or deliberate incompetence? Canadians could be made to support a step change in immigration rate like this, but only with a robust plan to absorb the growth. That might include grants to municipalities for transitional support services. It definitely requires some coherent plan to grow the housing supply at an adequate rate (say, targeting the additional immigration at additional construction industry workforce), and it includes an infrastructure plan.

I think this chart is where a lot of the anger is coming from. The support for the LPC had dropped most dramatically in the 30-60 age range, where people are most heavily indebted.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Based on current interest rates and house prices, the monthly mortgage payment needed to purchase a typical home in Canada has risen by $255 or 8.3% since March. <br><br>Hard to see sustained upward momentum in demand in light of this. <a href="https://t.co/E9nWzk9FlJ">pic.twitter.com/E9nWzk9FlJ</a></p>&mdash; Ben Rabidoux (@BenRabidoux) <a href="

https://twitter.com/x/status/1669679685851049985

">June 16, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[kEiThZ]

The recent cabinet shuffle did not give much confidence that the government is taking the need to pivot seriously.

Deck chairs. Titanic.

I am rather baffled by the sudden change of course on immigration policy.

I think they see no way to get the GDP growth necessary to pay for COVID debt and Boomer healthcare without substantial population growth that lets them get debt/GDP back down and debt per capita back to pre-Covid levels. They basically seem willing to lose the next election over it if they have to. I think they are also hoping to simply fight the next election as a culture war over immigration. Easy to win any such argument by just calling anybody who wants to curtail immigration, "Racist!".

I don't think it's going to wash when even a lot of recent immigrants are calling for cuts.

 

[picard102]

Would the LPC have been re-elected if they were honest about bringing a million new residents per year?

Plenty tried to make immigration an issue last election. It didn't stick.

Kinda hard to portray PP as the Boogeyman when he's talking about supporting Transit Oriented Development to help seniors and students without a car.

How is it hard to portray a liar who has no plans to do anything, making pronouncements about things not in his purview, a boogeyman?

Did the LPC plan to run against this guy?

Of course they did. He lost the glasses and is wearing spanx, but he's the same lifelong politician who panders to the right wing nuts.

I don't think it's going to wash when even a lot of recent immigrants are calling for cuts.

Pulling up the ladder isn't a new thing.

 

[kEiThZ]

Plenty tried to make immigration an issue last election. It didn't stick.


How is it hard to portray a liar who has no plans to do anything, making pronouncements about things not in his purview, a boogeyman?


Of course they did. He lost the glasses and is wearing spanx, but he's the same lifelong politician who panders to the right wing nuts.


Pulling up the ladder isn't a new thing.

Partisans will always think their opponents are liars and hacks. Hardcore conservatives will say the same about Liberals.

But the majority of the voting population doesn't think like that. It's the better of two evils they need to choose from.... Or say in the case of someone like my wife, they would choose NDP or Green instead.

 

[picard102]

Again, people enjoy hearing lies they already believe.
Today he's pretending the government is controlled by WEF, as more and more morons buy into conspiracy theories about 15 min cities and eating bugs. But not too long ago he had no problem citing their work.

Just like he is acting like he'll force cities and the province to build housing somehow, while having done nothing and having no plan to do anything.

 

[yrt+viva=1system]

When it comes to immigration levels, temporary permits are the elephant in the room​

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opi...on-levels-temporary-permits-are-the-elephant/

Meanwhile, the number of people arriving as temporary residents isn’t directly managed by the federal government – there are no targets and no ceilings. The former immigration minister Sean Fraserwas very clear that temporary immigration is based on the demand of postsecondary institutions and employers. The number of temporary work permit holders in Canada at the end of 2022 had soared to 798,100. The number of foreign students in Canada has also soared, with more than 807,260 in the country at the end of 2022.

 

[lenaitch]

Just like he is acting like he'll force cities and the province to build housing somehow, while having done nothing and having no plan to do anything.

This is one thing in Canadian governance that drives me a little nuts. Constitutionally, the federal government has no role in housing beyond areas such as FNs and CAF beyond being a cash cow. It would be like Ontario having a Ministry of Defence. If their sole role is to come up with some kind of funding policy to dole out money to subordinate level of government, that could all be done by adding a few more PYs to Treasury Board, rather than create what are essentially shell ministries complete with a minister, deputies and assistants, salaries and all the rest of the package.

 

[jje1000]

The LPC really seems clueless about both sentiment and how they look with some of their pronouncements. Very much reminds me of the end of Wynne's term.

I am also starting to see the resemblance.

Didn't a bunch of OLP government groupies jump over to the federal Liberals?

I remember that Butts went from the provincial level (where he crafted Ontario's equivalent of the Energiewende) to being cozy with Trudeau.

 

[kEiThZ]

I think people are rather uniquely angry right now about cost of living and interest rate rises.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1691437012983689216

 

[kEiThZ]

Didn't a bunch of OLP government groupies jump over to the federal Liberals?

I remember that Butts went from the provincial level (where he crafted Ontario's equivalent of the Energiewende) to being cozy with Trudeau.

Quite a few did. I follow Butts. And for all the crap he's taken, dude is rather honest and passionate about climate policy. Honestly, it's probably one of the few files where the LPC can claim real, unambiguous success. Compare that to say immigration and housing. From the video above of the homesteader in tears (6M views so far) to stories of renoviction, housing policy is turning into an absolute disaster.

'Callous and heartless': Longtime Vancouver renter facing eviction despite long-term Airbnbs, vacant units in building

A longtime Vancouver renter says he’s facing homelessness after being issued an eviction notice which he, and the Vancouver Tenants Union, believes is unnecessary.

bc.ctvnews.ca

I can see the LPC surviving many things. But not the housing and cost of living crises that have reached a real boiling point for a lot of people. I also think it does not help that both actual LPC politicians and partisan supporters refuse to take any responsibility and routinely argue to shift blame or deflect. "It's the provinces' fault. Housing is not a federal issue." "It's the municipalities' fault. They cave to NIMBYs." "It's the fault of developer's making obscene profits." All kinds of excuses.

Never any policy that actually delivers meaningful results. And I think this will be their undoing. This is something a lot of Liberal partisans who hate the CPC and Pierre Poilievre just don't get. You have housing experts like Prof. Mike Moffat literally begging the government to steal his ideas so they can prevail at the next election. And we have excellent commentators like John Michael McGrath pumps pointing out that partisan hackery won't solve the housing crisis. But this government only seems to have a one track mind.

 

[kEiThZ]

This is one thing in Canadian governance that drives me a little nuts. Constitutionally, the federal government has no role in housing beyond areas such as FNs and CAF beyond being a cash cow.

That's not a small role be though. Power of the purse is huge. But also feds control substantial demand side levers. Immigration. Mortgage Policy. Federal building codes and design standards (which the provinces' copy). Massive land holdings. Etc. They can also do things like support transit and transport to enable the development of other cities (say HFR to Peterborough and London). They have a lot more power than they will admit to.