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Report out from the Parliamentary Budget Officer saying it will take 20 years for Canada and Ontario to break-even on all the subsidies we're pouring into new batter plants.

That's egregious.

As someone who invests myself, I would never accept such a low ROI.

investments should generally recover their cost within 7 years of returns; 10 if the investment has a long time horizon.


Here's the actual report itself. Its not overly long, but long enough to explain the calculation and how and why they arrived at it:


I find the PBO's estimate credible.

The knock on it from the government will be that it only counts government revenue occurring directly from the subsidized plants, but not any 'spin-offs'.

The PBO's straight forward answer is that none of those spin-offs are defined or secured. (I will then add, I would think it naive to imagine that there wont' be more subsidies for assembly plants, parts makers, or mines)

Further, the PBO generally chose not to hold the gov't feet to the fire by calculating the interest on the debt that accrued with the subsidies.
 
It would be a PR nightmare. Can you imagine the headlines if Trudeau flew commercial because of RCAF airplane troubles?
Why would it be a PR nightmare? For whom? Does the public usually celebrate people spending taxpayer money on private jets?

I would very much like for the opposite to be the PR nightmare. A politician flying a regular flight (out of their own pocket) would at least show that they are in some way grounded and attempt to relate to us plebs.
 

This is why I have doubts that the LPC will prevail in 2025.

Of course, there are 2 issues above really, one is the cost of housing, the other is that woman's wage; $21 per hour. A $5.50 premium to the current minimum wage.

If this woman were in L.A. County, where median house prices, adjusted for currency are roughly 10% above Toronto's....... the minimum wage adjusted for currency would be ~$21 CAD (16.90 USD) Assuming she earned the same premium to minimum in absolute dollars she does now, she'd be earning $26.50 CAD an extra $5.50 per hour, gross, which would be an extra ~$900 in a typical month. Not enough to make life easy, but certainly less difficult.

A more troubling contrast would be Seattle Wash. Where the median house price is only ~$1,000,000CAD but the minimum wage is $18.69USD or $23.36CAD per hour.
When one uses rent as the comparator, The market differences are smaller, but Seattle is still cheaper, on average, by about $200 per month.

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I observe this and note that the minimum wage for the vast majority of workers is a provincial matter over which Doug Ford has control.

That's certainly not to let the PM off the hook at all, but rather to suggest Ontario and the Feds have been working together to hyper inflate housing costs and drive down wages and they share the blame.
 
Imagine if Trudeau's aircraft failed inflight.

Highly unlikely. Faults are routinely found on aircraft during pre-flight checks. We routinely fly aircraft with non-critical items non-functional. It's just a matter of context.

I believe some of the replacement fleet are being bought from the used plane lot, so old, just not as old.

A portion of the incoming Husky fleet is ex-Kuwait Airways. And they are 2015 vintage. For airliners, that's pretty youthful. And they will get far less abuse in RCAF service than airline service. Given that airliners are routinely in service for 20-30 years with carriers, there's no real worries about these planes making it to 2050 at least.

Why can’t Trudeau fly home on a commercial flight? First class on Air Canada or Air India should suffice.

1) Routing. For example, Air India takes the polar route through Russian airspace. And no airline is going to change their routing and add hours to travel time to accomodate last minute VVIP movements.

2) Availability. Just because you want a First Class or Business Class seat doesn't mean there's availability. And they would need seats for at least him, his close protection team and maybe 1-2 staffers. Airlines don't just drop their regulars because the PM wants to travel.

3) Security. And this is less about him than it is about other passengers. You would not be on a flight with a VVIP. If you end up on one, you'll be getting some of the most invasive security checks ever. And they'll probably place some restriction on movements around the cabin. It's terrible when politicians do this for optics and impose on everybody else on the aircraft.

We need an in-depth defence review. IMO, priorities should be RCN, RCAF and then the Army. The latter should be large enough to meet our NATO commitments, but not much more. But our coastline needs protection, and sea and air is the way to do it.

That review is already under way. I hope you made a submission of your opinion when the call was there for public input. There's rumours that Anita Anand was removed because she advocated for such spending. Instead the government has decided to start cutting.


There is a case to be made to shrink the army and invest more in sea and airpower. This is exactly the path the UK is pursuing. But this requires a clear articulation of a vision. And a recognition of the tradeoffs. Currently our defence policy requires the the ability to sustain at least one (reinforced battalion sized) battle group overseas continuosly and the ability to provide to provide a second battalion on a surge for another short term emergency. This results in the army having 9 infantry battalions, one tank battalion, two armoured reconnaissance battalions, 3 artillery battalions, 3 logistics battalions and 4 combat engineer regiments, and a pile of other supporting units (medical, communications, intelligence, military police, etc). The logistics and engineer regiments also provide the expertise and manpower for domestic emergency response. Often aided by communications, intelligence, medical and military police personnel, with the infantry, armoured and artillery personnel providing general labour in these situations.

So the question is what do you cut and what do you want the army to do? Rule of 3 means that 1 deployed continuously requires 2-3 units at home to sustain that commitment. One unit in workups. One in decompression. That's the minimum. So the army we have actually doesn't allow for a lot of cuts without the government making some stark foreign policy decisions that rule out substantial future commitments. For example, we would have to tell our allies that we can no longer provide any sustained presence (for example, as Canada is doing right now in Latvia as the lead of the brigade deterring Russia there). We could rejig the army to be more like the US Marine Corps. This would be more a force to respond quickly than to engage in sustained conflict. I've advocated for this in the other thread. But this means actual investment in things like amphibs and attack helicopters, as the army loses heavy assets like tanks. This is a good video to look at what different kinds of units cost:


The real question in all of that is what would our allies think? Having a quick response force is great. But only if we're willing to deploy them quickly. Allies need quick response forces that are reliable. Does our politics allow for that kind of shift? I'm not sure. And that's despite my personal preference to a lighter army.
 
Furthermore, I suspect it would be a security issue. 13 or so hours in a confined space with 150 unknown other people would be a huge security risk.

Normally when other countries do this, like UK PM or Royals on British Airways, they simply book the whole first class or business class cabin. But those trips are pre-planned. It's not done on a whim.
 
Normally when other countries do this, like UK PM or Royals on British Airways, they simply book the whole first class or business class cabin. But those trips are pre-planned. It's not done on a whim.

That was somewhat my point. I doubt his security team wanted him sitting with random strangers.
 
Why would it be a PR nightmare? For whom? Does the public usually celebrate people spending taxpayer money on private jets?

I would very much like for the opposite to be the PR nightmare. A politician flying a regular flight (out of their own pocket) would at least show that they are in some way grounded and attempt to relate to us plebs.
Do you travel on your employer's business on your own dime?

Gad, we are so provincial when it comes to our head of government. Perhaps next he (or she, or whomever, as I assume the prevailing mood is for all PMs, not just the current one) should rent a basement apartment in Ottawa and if he has to host foreign dignitaries, rent a room at the Lord Elgin. If he flies economy, he can bring his own juice box.

The threat assessment WRT our PM is always an issue, and always changing. In addition to security issues here, there are security issues in other countries. Some segments of Indian society aren't too pleased about his stance on an independent Sikh homeland. This is no different than any other head of state or government. Clam bakes like the G7/G20 are held in highly secured venues for a reason. The PM has (sort of right now) his own secured and guarded residence for a reason. He has a security detail, for a reason.

Yes, lets create a situation where his security detail has to take care of something . . . at 30,000 feet. Quite frankly, if I was a member of the travelling public, I'm not sure I would want a high value target on my plane.

I don't know the size of his entourage that went to India, but I would imagine the last minute booking of x number of seats - en bloc - would not be cheap and be fodder for the opposition. If he were to travel regularly on commercial aircraft, that includes going through all of the terminal procedures for his and his entourage and security personnel, just like the rest of us. Hmm, I wonder how the RCMP members would explain their weapons? If they know his flight number, or even just take a good guess, anybody with a computer can track commercial flights. There is a reason most military aircraft are blocked on sites like Flightradar.

Yes, there is a cost to use military aircraft, but the salaries are paid anyway (as well as the airframes - long paid for, and that's the problem) and, if the crew didn't get enough hours in per month or quarter, they'd have to do training flights anyway.
 
Normally when other countries do this, like UK PM or Royals on British Airways, they simply book the whole first class or business class cabin. But those trips are pre-planned. It's not done on a whim.
Not exclusively. I believe RAF 10 and or 32 Sgns are tasked with government and Royal transport. What a lot of people see as a British Airways aircraft could be a dedicated leased aircraft.

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Do you travel on your employer's business on your own dime?
I think it's very charitable of you to compare modern democracy to taxpayers being a politician's employers. In theory, sure, but in reality, an employer who is dissatisfied with an employee's performance has some recourse. If you don't like what a politician has done, you don't get to discipline them or fire them or undo the damage they have done. You can wait until the next election and vote and hope that the rest of your fellow citizens feel the same way, and hope that their replacement who rattles on about undoing the damage actually undoes the damage, and that's basically it.

Since politicians are not at my beck and call and largely do whatever they want, I feel it just that they pay for their own expenses, yes.
 
Not exclusively. I believe RAF 10 and or 32 Sgns are tasked with government and Royal transport. What a lot of people see as a British Airways aircraft could be a dedicated leased aircraft.

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You're right. Not exclusively. They have two VVIP movements squadrons just like us. But they also do make non-official trips. It even leads to funny situations like this:


The challenge in Canada is that Ottawa has pretty crap scheduled service in general. Especially when you compare to other G7 capitals. You'll notice that Australia is in the same boat. And their PM regularly flies service air too.
 
Instead the government has decided to start cutting.

Meanwhile Sweden has announced it will boost defence spending next year by almost 30%.

 

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