Brands
Active Member
100B deficit pre covid? Post the evidence that says that.
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- Thread starter King of Kensington
- Start date
Brands
Active Member
Gross government debt in G7 2023 | Statista
In 2023, the United States had the highest gross government debt of any G7 country, amounting to an estimated 33 trillion U.S.
www.statista.com
kEiThZ
Superstar
Do you know what "cumulatively" means? Add up the deficits for all the fiscal years before COVID.
2016: $19B
2017: $19B
2018: $14B
2019: $39B
I was a bit off. $91B cumulatively before COVID. Not for lack of trying though. They projected $29.4B in 2016 and $28.5B in 2017.
Brands
Active Member
Canada has the lowest net debt to GDP radio in the G7. However, the deficit is important is get under control.
Northern Light
Superstar
For clarity, in the past, Canada has prohibited CMHC insured mortgages from having an amortization greater than 25 years; non-insured mortgages could go to 35 years.
In the last 18 months, restrictions were further eased, and banks have been rewriting mortgages at 40 years + to those who came up under water.
That, frankly, is entirely undesirable for reasons described by @afransen and @kEiThZ across multiple posts.
This is a good comprehensive piece on mortgage characteristics across the OECD:
(from 2021)
kEiThZ
Superstar
That's federal debt. Which is deceiving because of the differences between unitary and federated States.. When you compare public debt Canada is not the lowest.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
We need to include the the Provinces and look at total debt.
Total federal and provincial debt equals approx. USD$ 1.6 trillion. Canada's total GDP is approx. USD $ 2.1 trillion, meaning that our debt to GDP ratio is 0.76. That puts us behind Germany, whose debt to gdp ratio is 65%, but I agree that we're in better shape that the others in this regard, especially Japan where debt is reaching a staggering 270% of GDP.
But why can't our federal and provincial governments spend within their means?
Brands
Active Member
I am talking about Federal. I am sure the debt would be more if other countries added states and provinces.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Which is irrelevant because:
How do you compare countries like the UK where transport and healthcare and post-secondary education are managed at the national level to Canada, which doesn't do that? That's why the only apples to apples measures is total public debt (which is what the link I provided measures).
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Which is gaming the data to serve your point that Canada has the lowest debt to gdp in the g7. In the USA for example, states are not permitted to issue or carry debt, and any state that cannot pay its bills must ask for federal financial aid.
The silly thing is you don't even need to be obtuse to support your assertion that Canada has a low debt to gdp ratio, because we do, even with the provinces added in. Only Germany has a lower ratio that us. So, we're #2 in the g7.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Apparently, ahead of the budget, the Defense Policy update will drop tomorrow:
Release of Canada’s Defence Policy Update - Canada.ca
On April 8, 2024, the Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, will release Canada’s Defence Policy Update.www.canada.ca
We'll find out if the current trajectory is changing. Right now this seems to be the government's attitude:
Opinion: Trudeau’s Liberals are full of promises on everything except Canada’s highest priority: defence
Some of the prime minister’s recent announcements are outside federal jurisdiction and not likely to become a reality before the next election; however, boosting Canada’s defences is of critical importance
www.theglobeandmail.com
Northern Light
Superstar
We'll find out if the current trajectory is changing. Right now this seems to be the government's attitude:
Opinion: Trudeau’s Liberals are full of promises on everything except Canada’s highest priority: defence
Some of the prime minister’s recent announcements are outside federal jurisdiction and not likely to become a reality before the next election; however, boosting Canada’s defences is of critical importance
Presumably, they will put something in the window, as it would be odd to hold an election presser, at a Military Base, in order to shrug your shoulders. Though whether the 'something' will be tangible, sufficient or near-term is certainly an open question.
kEiThZ
Superstar
I'm not under any hope they'll meet the 2% target. But there's a few immediate investment areas that they can hit both to stop the "death spiral" and to get us out of the "quadrant of shame".
Things like housing allowances, healthcare for dependents and daycare support would probably cost half a billion per year. They would help improve morale, increase retention, reduce stress on families.
We need about $1.9B more per year on equipment and R&D spending to get us out of the quadrant of shame. And they can easily find both some urgent requirements, and R&D outlets (including grants to academia) to meet that target.
So I'd say $2.5B more per year should be enough to get the worst of the crisis behind us. Won't get us anywhere near 2%.
In the long run, if we are going to increase defence spending substantially beyond that, there's a few smart things the government can do. Biggest among them is seek out areas which spend more of the money at home (as we do with shipbuilding) and where we gain substantially economically (R&Do, aerospace, etc). I can think of a few areas where we could do this. A new submarine program is the biggest one, as long as we build in Canada. Space is another area where we have natural advantages and where we could spend a lot domestically with spinoffs. Modeling and simulation is another area. We should be looking for ways to maximize economic return on defence spending. Shoot for the moon ideas like getting MDA a whole radarsat surveillance constellation or building really advanced training facilities with high fidelity simulation with CAE or even a nuclear submarine program with LEU CANDU reactors that can be sold as SMRs. I don't expect any of this to be in the defence policy. But I would hope there's a larger policy effort somewhere looking at what natural advantages we have, where we could invest and get the most return, not just for defence, but the economy too.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
There’s a lot of programs announced that will need funding….
www.canada.ca
montrealgazette.com
www.canada.ca
www.navaltoday.com
www.ctvnews.ca
www.canada.ca
Canada purchasing up to 16 P-8A Poseidon Multi Mission Aircraft for the Royal Canadian Air Force - Canada.ca
Today, the Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, the Honourable Jean-Yves Duclos, Minister of Public Services and Procurement, and the Honourable François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry announced that Canada has finalized a...
Davie Shipyards receives first $19M contract to design new icebreakers
The contract should create and maintain approximately 35 jobs per year, according to the federal government.
montrealgazette.com
Canada acquiring Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems for the Canadian Armed Forces - Canada.ca
Through Canada’s defence policy, Strong, Secure, Engaged, the Government of Canada is acquiring modern military equipment to keep Canadians safe and protected, and to support the security of our international allies and partners.
Babcock, Hanwha Ocean join forces on Canadian submarine project
Shipbuilder Babcock Canada has signed a Technical Cooperation Agreement with Hanwha Ocean to collaborate on the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP).
www.navaltoday.com
Defence Department expecting clarity on cost of new warship fleet later this year
The Defence Department's procurement chief is hoping to have a better sense by the end of the year as to how much Canada will have to pay to build a new fleet of warships for the Royal Canadian Navy.
Future Protecteur-class Joint Support Ships provide vital capability to the Royal Canadian Navy
The longest ship ever built in Canada, at close to 174 metres in length, the future Protecteur-class Joint Support Ships (JSS) will provide core replenishment, limited sealift capabilities and support to operations ashore for the Royal Canadian Navy (RCN).
kEiThZ
Superstar
These are already budgeted for. Meeting the target requires going beyond these.
And in some cases these deals can be expanded if we want to increase defence spending a bit. For example, I think there's a case to be made with increasing the P-8 purchase to 20 frames and putting a squadron in the Newfoundland. Likewise, probably a case to buy more drones and stand up a squadron in Yellowknife, in addition to the units being stood up on the coasts. We can also build on the P-8 purchase and get a squadron of Wedgetails so we finally have our own AEW capability.
Even with the ship program, I would think we could probably plan a few more frigates and maybe an extra JSS.
Given that we would have to spend something like $15B per year to meet 2%, the above is probably a way to add $1B per year and at least look like we're trying.