picard102
Senior Member
He also knows an election is a long way out in political time.
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- Thread starter King of Kensington
- Start date
lenaitch
Senior Member
No doubt, but the benchmark of any politician is winning, not succeeding, and he is an accomplished campaigner. Historically, the LPC can assemble a solid backroom team for elections. Besides, as mentioned, in political terms, the next election is lightyears away.
The caucus must feel fairly confident, either than or they are completely cowed; otherwise the knives would be out. Internal strife shows weakness and vulnerability, but I would think somebody would unearth rumblings of a palace coup if one was forming.
Richard White
Senior Member
Agreed.
All is takes is one slip up for a person to get in serious political trouble. Take Mel Lastman just prior to his Kenya trip for example (where he likely cost us the 2008 Olympics).
Then again.. this is a minority parliament. Despite the supply and confidence arrangement the plug can be pulled at any time. All it takes is for PP, Jagmeet and the BQ to call for a vote.
lenaitch
Senior Member
Any minority parliament walks on eggshells, but everybody does the math. Singh isn't eligible for an MP's pension until February of next year so he is disinclined to pull the plug. Besides, I'm not sure they could afford a campaign right now.
kEiThZ
Superstar
To be fair, Singh was well off before politics and he's likely to win his seat, so not sure he's really worried about that pension. But I think the NDP needs some of these policies they pushed for, to at least have some implementation so they have something to run on. The Liberals know this and are delaying as long as possible.
Towered
Senior Member
Lastman's gaffe aside, the 2008 Olympics were always going to be handed to Beijing. That was never in doubt, no matter what the other bid cities did.
afransen
Senior Member
I doubt Singh is worried about his pension. Probably thinking more about keeping his job as leader if he plays his hand poorly and gets a bad result from a policy/electoral results perspective. I think he lands some policy wins out of propping up the LPC, that would make up for a poor performance in the next election. But if he doesn't have anything to show for propping up the Liberals he will lose a lot of credibility unless he delivers a strong outcome after the next election.
kEiThZ
Superstar
1.5 years with these poll numbers? I'm not sure that's actually a lot of time. Has there ever been a sitting government that made up this much ground in 1.5 years?
Memph
Active Member
I wouldn't count on it taking 1.5 years either. If the Liberals continue to decline in the polls the way they have in the past 9 months, while the NDP remains relatively steady in the polls, we will soon be at a tipping point where the NDP has a chance at winning more seats than the Liberals.
And at that point, the fact that 2/3 of Liberals are more about voting against Poilievre than for Trudeau comes into play, if that 2/3 of Liberal support begins to feel that the NDP is a more viable counter to the Conservatives, then the gradual bleeding of support from the Liberals will turn into a complete collapse where they will likely finish 4th below the BQ. If the NDP feels this scenario is in the cards, I think they will call an election. They won't have any real expectation to beat the Conservatives, but if they can become the official opposition, they can improve their standing by criticizing the Conservative majority government and hope to do better 4 years later.
Polling averages from 338Canada
Conservatives
Jun: 34%
Aug: 35%
Oct: 38%
Dec: 40%
Mar: 41%
Liberals
Jun: 31%
Aug: 29%
Oct: 28%
Dec: 26%
Mar: 25%
NDP
June: 20%
Aug: 19%
Oct: 18%
Dec: 19%
Mar: 19%
It seems Liberals are bleeding support faster than the NDP, so if things keep up, the Liberals and NDP might be pretty even in 6-9 months. At that point the NDP will just need to pick a good issue to justify making a stand and calling an election over.
Only question is whether the NDP will be able to pull enough support away from the Liberals to win more seats than the Bloc, because I could see a situation where all 3 parties win around 40-45 seats, especially if the BQ can ride the coat-tails of the PQ who are currently supplanting the CAQ in Quebec provincial politics.
picard102
Senior Member
It took them a little over 1.5 to get to this point. It's still an eternity.
Brands
New Member
Over half the world's population are going to have elections in 2024. Unless you are Modi or Putin, incumbent governments are in trouble.
Hopefully the Liberals use their time, to get their shit together.
Hopefully the Liberals use their time, to get their shit together.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Took a lot longer than 1.5 years to get here. How long have we had a housing shortage? How long have immigration levels (including students) been above target?
picard102
Senior Member
The polling only got here in the last 1.5 years.
kEiThZ
Superstar
The issues moved the polling here. And those issues aren't being resolved anytime soon. They have barely begun even working on these issues. I don't expect they'll recover. I think the question now is whether they'll be the Official Opposition after the election or that crown will be taken by the NDP.
Northern Light
Superstar
The Star out this morning with a curious piece.
A professor in Ottawa obtained a report to cabinet from 2020 outlining the options for different levels of immigration, one which included the option of going to up to 1M per year though the economic-class/points system.
So we now see some of the thought that went into boosting already high levels of immigration.........
Here's the thing w/the piece, it notes the Liberals didn't pick the 1M option and almost comes off suggesting this was moderate.
Except, we did hit and exceed the 1M; while cabinet approved the lower mainstream immigration total ( still a record high), its clear the system was gamed to have foreign students and TFWs make up the difference between the original target and the approved one.
www.thestar.com
So, in the end, we took in more people than the high end option in the cabinet docs; but with none of the resources the cabinet docs said would be needed if that option were picked.
I don't know that I can be anymore irritated by the Trudeau gov'ts choices here than I already was............. I am irritated w/the author of the piece for misrepresenting what happened though sins of omission.
A professor in Ottawa obtained a report to cabinet from 2020 outlining the options for different levels of immigration, one which included the option of going to up to 1M per year though the economic-class/points system.
So we now see some of the thought that went into boosting already high levels of immigration.........
Here's the thing w/the piece, it notes the Liberals didn't pick the 1M option and almost comes off suggesting this was moderate.
Except, we did hit and exceed the 1M; while cabinet approved the lower mainstream immigration total ( still a record high), its clear the system was gamed to have foreign students and TFWs make up the difference between the original target and the approved one.
A plan to add one million permanent residents to Canada in a single year was among ideas floated behind the scenes, government docs show
A plan drafted by a deputy minister laid out three options for how many permanent residents the country could accept in 2023.
www.thestar.com
So, in the end, we took in more people than the high end option in the cabinet docs; but with none of the resources the cabinet docs said would be needed if that option were picked.
I don't know that I can be anymore irritated by the Trudeau gov'ts choices here than I already was............. I am irritated w/the author of the piece for misrepresenting what happened though sins of omission.
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