[adma]

I wouldn't say that exactly. The good poll aggregators weight the value of the polling firm and have documentation on each of their reliability and biases right down to a local level.
Even with polling firm bias, you get value by seeing their own changes over time. It doesn't matter if they always overweight in one direction, you can still look at their changes over time.
The polls also don't only count on election day. Trudeau resigned because the polls showed him what was coming if he didn't.

*Was* there polling for University-Rosedale, though? If there was, it was never brought to my attention--and it isn't the kind of race that would have earned a "daily tracker" or multiple polls from several agencies.

Again, let's not mistake "poll aggregators" for projection sites that operate off of previous elections combined with current national/regional polls. Such things might not capture riding-specific dynamics (though in this age of limited resources for finding out about actual ground conditions, the aggregators/projection sites *can* serve as passive-aggressive push-poll-like "voter guides"--like, voting for or not voting for a particular party because the aggregator/projector says it's likely or not likely to win)

 

[adma]

Not sure there's a lot to read into the declining CPC voteshare. There wasn't much motivating CPC voters to go vote in these byelections.

Likewise, the NDP leapfrogging CPC in U-R doesn't mean much either, by virtue of everyone basically knowing this result was a foregone conclusion.

I actually think there subliminally *can* be something to read in such results. Or, it's not like everybody who voted Conservative or NDP in those very same ridings in '25 did so with the confidence that their party would win *then*, either--so if the chances were as dismal now as then, why did the Cons lose another 10%+ in share? They didn't *have* to. (It's what makes psephology--the study of election statistics--kind of fun. And in the case of Terrebonne, it'd be interesting to know which direction the '25 high-teens Con share went--I suspect a fair bit went "strategic Lib" *and* a fair bit "strategic Bloc", the latter being a bit of a "BQ/CAQ exurban-heartland-populism" demographic).

And likewise when it comes to the NDP leapfrogging CPC in U-R--it is, in effect, a statement that the '25 result was a blip in the electoral status quo rather than a permanent shift; as well as a symbolic "bookmark for the future", the way that a lot of the federal NDP 2nd places in the 416 were under Alexa McDonough in '97. (In Charles Caccia's Liberal fiefdom of Davenport that year, the NDP got a solid 18% 2nd place to Caccia's 66%. Yeah, that was a nearly 50-point gap; but up to that time Davenport was never taken seriously as an NDP target--yet by the 2010's, it was the party's strongest riding in Toronto, even if demographic changes played a part. Likewise, going into the 90s, Parkdale-High Park was commonly viewed as a Lib/Tory swinger; but the NDP got a solid 20% 2nd in '97, and ultimately traded its way up to Peggy Nash's 00s/10s representation, as well as its being the party's only 2nd place in Toronto last year.)

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

I wouldn't say that exactly. The good poll aggregators weight the value of the polling firm and have documentation on each of their reliability and biases right down to a local level.
Even with polling firm bias, you get value by seeing their own changes over time. It doesn't matter if they always overweight in one direction, you can still look at their changes over time.
The polls also don't only count on election day. Trudeau resigned because the polls showed him what was coming if he didn't.

You guys have a lot more faith in that process than I do...

...and the only polls that don't count on election day is that if the party in power doesn't count the ones that opposes them, Vlad Putin style. >.<

 

[CMQSD402F9011]

Would anyone think the NDP could win an election in the 2030s I suppose(?). I remember last year some FB page once said that the NDP could win by 2034 with an election in that year I guess.

 

[Northern Light]

Back to public policy for a moment..... LOL

Spring Fiscal Update will be dropped on April 28th.