Videodrome
Senior Member
Someone got their orders from Scheer!
When you have lost CP2Ford...
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- Thread starter animatronic
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Someone got their orders from Scheer!
When you have lost CP2Ford...
BurlOak
Senior Member
Oops - Should have referred to seasonally adjusted jobs in title - Table: 14-10-0287-02. Chart was created from that data.
Northern Light
Superstar
Interesting.......I don't to be rude; but I'm going to have to ask you to show your math.
I looked at 2 subsets of the data from that chart and I could not arrive at similar results. In fairness, maybe that's me...........so if you could show me which numbers you selected from this chart, and please show time period chosen, month/year, and which data point your using.
AlbertHWagstaff
Senior Member
Even CP2Ford has its priorities right!
Videodrome
Senior Member
That is basically like Fox News cutting away from Trump rallies.
BurlOak
Senior Member
I can't get a direct link, so you have to go here. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=1410028701
For geography, select Canada and Ontario. For reference period, select Jan 2018 to May 2019.
Looking at Ford: He was elected in early June - so I took the end of May numbers as the transition date.
In Canada, employment (seasonally adjusted) was 18603.7 at the end of May, 2018, and 19,056.8 at end of May, 2019 - a gain of 453.1k jobs.
In Ontario, employment was 7,215.8 at the end of May, 2018, and 7,438.0 at end of May, 2019 - a gain of 222.2k jobs.
Doing the math, the Rest-of-Canada (ROC) created 230.9k jobs.
222.2/230.9 = 96%. Ontario recreated 96% of the jobs that the ROC created.
Repeat for each PC, Liberal and NDP governments.
For population, I just used google and picked the year roughly in the middle of the mandate. It seems Ontario's population has increases from about 60% of ROC to 68% now. If the jobs created is larger than the population percentage, then the government is doing a good job.
This is about the best way I could think of to compare how well Ontario is doing. It works nicely since Ontario and ROC are roughly the same size. Otherwise, I think I would take jobs created per population somehow. It takes out of the equation the economic conditions, because it is a relative measure. If you just compare absolute jobs, then the Premier governing in a recession is punished, while those in a boom are rewarded.
Northern Light
Superstar
Ok........
Lets begin by noting that Mr. Ford won gov't on June 7th of last year. So he had nothing to do with numbers prior to that.
But in point of fact he didn't assume office legally until June 29th, 2018.
So there is absolutely no way for him to have any impact whatsoever prior to the July numbers and that is being rather generous, as with any party the impacts in the economy today are the result of decisions on expansion, hiring and investment made months (or more) earlier.
Be that as it may.
Canada as a whole, has 18,677,000 jobs at the beginning of the reference period. It has 19,057,000 as at May, 2019. A net gain of 380,000 jobs.
Ontario in the same period had 7,303,000 at the beginning of the reference period. It has 7,438,000 as at May, 2019. A net gain of 135,000 jobs.
Ontario therefore created 35.52% of Canada's jobs over the reference period.
Ontario's percentage of the working age population is 39.2% of Canada's number based on the July 2018 numbers (11,912,000/30,317,000)
As such, Ontario, while doing quite well over the last 10 months, from a fairly good base; has actually under performed the country as a whole, when we remove credit for the last 2 months of Wynne's government from your calculations.
***
You know I was completely prepared to see the numbers, using your concept of performance measurement work out in the Premier's favour, though I might well argue with your metric of choice.
But I just felt the need to run the numbers myself .............and well, there ya go.
BurlOak
Senior Member
Whether to use the inauguration date of the date of the election is a fair debate. I have often seen the markets react to election results - so I felt it was more appropriate. I was consistent for the entire process. In this case, business immediately knew that the minimum wage increase would be scrapped, which would lead to more hiring. By using May numbers, I am taking end of May numbers. Thus, an error of 7 days - for which there is no possible data to correct for. Again, I am consistent for all parties in the chart.
If I chose the date they took over, that is almost more arbitrary, as then you might want to take the lag effect that you speak of into account. Is it the throne speech date that important? The election is likely the single firm date that signifies the change from one governments policies to the next.
I started to think this way, but with the Bob Rae era, he created a negative number of jobs and the chart looked even stranger - but it would work.
July numbers are the numbers for the performance of the economy in July - thus, end of July. They are typically announced on the first Friday of next month (August). Thus, either you use the June numbers or July numbers. If you argue the lag effect, then who knows where we draw the line - maybe the current jobs data is lagged based on Bob Rae?
Of course the chart is less representative the shorter the period of time is. Thus, the other parties from the earlier eras are perhaps very good indications of the job creation of those previous administrations, while the Ford numbers are still an early indication.
JGHali
Active Member
Premiers don’t get “inaugurated” and they don’t have “administrations”. This isn’t the US.
steveintoronto
Superstar
Thanks Dougie! It's one thing for you to pee down your own leg and vomit down your shirt, but doing it for others too?
What a swell guy! Nothing like being the Constant in Conservatism....keep up the great work!
Federal Conservatives’ worries about Doug Ford’s unpopularity intensify
Conservative insider says that Ford and his policies are the No. 1 issue at the door for candidates campaigning for Andrew Scheer’s party.
What a swell guy! Nothing like being the Constant in Conservatism....keep up the great work!
Federal Conservatives’ worries about Doug Ford’s unpopularity intensify
Conservative insider says that Ford and his policies are the No. 1 issue at the door for candidates campaigning for Andrew Scheer’s party.
MisterF
Senior Member
People give way too much credit to politicians when the economy is good and give them too much blame when the economy is bad. The pointlessness of crediting one political party for economic performance is highlighted by the fact that, as I mentioned in the other thread, we tend to have opposing governments provincially and federally. So if you're going credit Ford for Ontario's economic performance then surely you must give the same credit to Trudeau, right?
AlbertHWagstaff
Senior Member
Don't think I saw anything posted but did many people here get a robocall from Dougie inviting us to Ford Fest in Markham this year in the past few days? Would be hilarious if he got booed speaking at FordFest...
EagleEye
Senior Member
I think FordFest would be a great place to have a massive protest. I can think of many organizations who are unhappy with him, teachers, beer store owners, parents of autistic children, people who love wildlife etc.
Thinker
Active Member
No Robocalls (yet) However I am wondering who is paying for this shindig. The ConParty is busily promoting this catered affaire on the huge fair grounds of Markham. The rental and security of this property can't be cheap. It's right in the middle of nowhere and would require shuttle busses if you don't have a car.
Unless a massive protest is organized, small groups will run a chance to get assaulted, as it has happened before. But yeah... it would be fun.
adma
Superstar
The simple fact of Premier Ford-era Ford Fests being in "middle of nowhere" locations stands as a metaphor of sorts--remember that part of the magic of Ford Fests past was their location in "transit accessible" locations, i.e. as such, they were authentically "for the people".
I looked it up; and unbelievably, YRT doesn't go anywhere close to the Markham fairgrounds. (Or maybe believably so, as it's in the kind of location that wouldn't justify public transit on any grounds other than when the fairgrounds are in use.)
I looked it up; and unbelievably, YRT doesn't go anywhere close to the Markham fairgrounds. (Or maybe believably so, as it's in the kind of location that wouldn't justify public transit on any grounds other than when the fairgrounds are in use.)