So I did a boatload of number crunching this evening to see how much this plan would generate in revenue:
Before I give you the numbers, I want to outline the assumptions that I made, because if I made any errors in these, it could affect the outcome.
1) The AADT is an average of the 2008 Traffic Volumes for that particular stretch of highway (
http://www.raqsb.mto.gov.on.ca/techpubs/TrafficVolumes.nsf/tvweb?OpenForm&Seq=10). What I did was I multiplied the AADT for each section by the length of that section, and then divided the sum of those products by the total length, to give a weighted average AADT.
2) The function I used to derive PHF from AADT is: PHF = (AADT/24)*2.63, which is apparently a standard formula for figuring out PHF in an urban area.
3) My peak periods are 3 hours in both the AM and PM (6:30-9:30, 3:30-6:30). The PHF is therefore multiplied by 6. The off-peak usage is the AADT minus the PHF x6.
4) For highways where the Express lanes are tolled and the Collectors are free, I assumed a 40/60 split in the peak periods, and a 30/70 split in non-peak. I did this because more people will choose the free option over the tolled option, so traffic will not be distributed evenly like it is now.
5) Pricing is $0.20/km in peak periods, $0.10/km in off-peak. DVP, Gardiner, and QEW are not tolled off-peak.
6) For each highway I assumed an average trip length along that highway. 400 = 10km, 401 = 20km, 403 = 3km, 404 = 8km, 410 = 6km, 427 = 6km, QEW = 13km, DVP = 14km, Gar = 14km, 401 East Ext = 10km, 401 West Ext = 12km. Please look at the map to see if these numbers make sense, and note that these are only for the tolled sections of the highway, not the entire length. This is the section that can have the greatest effect on the numbers, it's also the most arbitrary.
I have the toll expansion broken down into 4 Phases, with the expected revenue shown, with the routes tolled in brackets:
Ph1: $138.2 million (401, 427)
Ph2: $221.5 million (401, 427, 410, 400, 404, 403)
Ph3: $332.0 million (401, 427, 410, 400, 404, 403, QEW, Gar, DVP)(QEW, Gar, DVP are peak only)
Ph4: $386.0 million (401 + Extensions, 427, 410, 400, 404, 403, QEW, Gar, DVP)
These numbers seem rather low, but there may be an error in my methodology. If the numbers check out, then we may have to consider other tolling options in order to boost revenue (additional routes, higher rates, etc).
PS: I have all of this laid out in an Excel spreadsheet, so changing any one of the variables isn't that big of a deal. All I have to do is change the number and the whole spreadsheet will update itself.