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GenerationW said:
Are you trying to depress me?

Please, anyone but him.
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+1.

He sounded like a pedantic douche last time around, and his columns are almost unreadable for their humourless, hectoring tone. I'm also not a fan of the Chow bandwagon. Her platform would have to have some serious suburban planks to make her electable. (Although I thought that Miller had two extremely good ideas for the suburbs -- vastly superior transit and 'towers in the park' redevelopment into communities -- and both seemed to become part of the 'evil downtown arrogant toad' meme.) So I'm not sure I know what a 'serious suburban plank' would be.
 
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GenerationW said:
Are you trying to depress me?

Please, anyone but him (Giambrone).
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Not to worry: I don't think he'll be the chosen candidate. If he runs, he'd be a fringe candidate with a second tier campaign because I don't think he'd be able to raise the kind of funds necessary. Usually when an incumbent is running, only one or two candidates try to run against them but this is going to look like a wide open election like the last one because Ford has exhausted all his political capital and he too may have a hard time raising money. I think we'll have 4 or 5 candidates vying to replace Ford. Giambrone appears to be one. I suspect Stintz will be another. Mammolitti has been acting like he's preparing to enter the election as well. We'll have a Conservative candidate put forward to replace Ford with a campaign run by Kouvalis (John Tory?). Then we'll have the major candidate assembled by the progressive machine to oust Ford -- Team Laschinger. If Olivia wants to run, it's likely hers for the taking but I'm hearing that there's a search outside city hall for a well liked charismatic public figure with no political baggage to take on this role if Olivia decides to keep her MP job (doubt it, she will almost certainly run from what I've heard).

By election day, Ford will remain on the ballot despite low polling numbers, the Kouvalis candidate will be sucking up most of his support aside from the hardcore Ford Nationalists and then we'll have a progressive candidate (likely Chow) benefitting from the Right side split. Mammolitti will have dropped out again just before the deadline to register for Councillor and Stintz (if she's not the Kouvalis candidate) will probably do the same. Giambrone will either remain (he already quit before, will be hard to give up on his dream again) or he may do the right thing and support the progressive candidate to regain some respect from his peers once more.

I think Ford is spent politically and will likely be defeated. I don't think that the progressives are that incompetent. They were caught last time with an unexpected Ford popularity but mainly were dazed and unprepared when they had to switch candidates mid election. Giambrone's campaign was well built and he could have won but with him leaving in disgrace, then Pantalone being adopted last minute, it was difficult to assemble a working plan. As we know now, they are preparing well ahead and I think that they have a winning formula.

Rob Ford won't go down easily though. He'll probably run (and win) his council seat back soon after the election when Doug steps down from a job he never wanted and will then be ostracized in a Fordless Mayor's office. A by-election will be called and Ford will again become a councillor.

That's what my crystal ball tells me anyway :)
 
MetroMan said:
Usually when an incumbent is running, only one or two candidates try to run against them but this is going to look like a wide open election like the last one because Ford has exhausted all his political capital and he too may have a hard time raising money. I think we'll have 4 or 5 candidates vying to replace Ford. Giambrone appears to be one. I suspect Stintz will be another. Mammolitti has been acting like he's preparing to enter the election as well. We'll have a Conservative candidate put forward to replace Ford with a campaign run by Kouvalis (John Tory?). Then we'll have the major candidate assembled by the progressive machine to oust Ford -- Team Laschinger. If Olivia wants to run, it's likely hers for the taking but I'm hearing that there's a search outside city hall for a well liked charismatic public figure with no political baggage to take on this role if Olivia decides to keep her MP job (doubt it, she will almost certainly run from what I've heard).
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- Kouvalis + sensible conservative? I can live with that- Kouvalis may play dirty tricks, but he does have a track record of winning. Conservatives, not populists is my motto.
- I don't know about Stintz. I'd like her to keep her councillor's seat for now.
- Mammo will probably repeat 2010, running then dropping out. It depends though if his ward is still supporting him. I don't mind him- he's ultimately harmless as a councillor.
- I would definitely like Olivia to keep her MP position as if a progressive with some similar values is elected to city hall, it would create a bridge between municipal and federal government, which is important considering that I don't think the federal Conservative majority is going to last through the next election.
 
jje1000 said:
IMO this election cycle should not be Olivia Chow's turn to shine. The city needs a gentle tug back to the centre of the swing, not a yank. Otherwise, those entranced by Ford's populism will continue resisting and we'll have mayor Ford for another four more years.
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Given Ford's recent history of calling any publication that disagrees with him "extreme left wing" (ie: globe and mail on a recent radio show) I think anyone running against him that isn't farther to the right that he is, is going to be cast by Ford Nation as an extreme left wing candidate, whether it be left leaning Olivia Chow, right leaning Karen Stintz or anyone in the middle.
 
ShonTron said:
I believe Ford would have won in 2010 even with ranked ballots. Though I agree, its time has come and would work well at the municipal level.
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I think what the ranked ballots would do over the long term is pull Toronto towards the centre, preventing the wild political swings that put the city in a mindset to elect Ford in the first place.
 
ttk77 said:
Given Ford's recent history of calling any publication that disagrees with him "extreme left wing" (ie: globe and mail on a recent radio show) I think anyone running against him that isn't farther to the right that he is, is going to be cast by Ford Nation as an extreme left wing candidate, whether it be left leaning Olivia Chow, right leaning Karen Stintz or anyone in the middle.
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I honestly don't think that they understand the political definition of left and right. They probably legitimately think that anybody who dosen't agree with Ford is automatically a leftist. Never overestimate the intelligence of a Ford nation supporer. Just last night I had one tell me that Ford saved him $10,000 in taxes annually.
 
My predictions:

1. If Chow is running, we won't see Giambrone (both have strong connections to the federal NDP)
2. Chow will use crumbling infrastructure as a unifying issue between downtown and the suburbs (as she has been doing in her current role as Critic for Transport, Infrastructure and Communities)
3. If Kouvalis doesn't work with Ford, he will sit out the election (he's not going to run against his friend)

One thing I can't figure out though is, if Ford is still sitting at similar 40% approval rates by the election, whether the conservative establishment will try to recruit an alternative right-leaning candidate. On one hand, they don't want to split the conservative vote against a potentially united left. On the other hand, they don't want their agenda to be pinned to Ford.
 
Silence&Motion said:
My predictions:

....

One thing I can't figure out though is, if Ford is still sitting at similar 40% approval rates by the election, whether the conservative establishment will try to recruit an alternative right-leaning candidate. On one hand, they don't want to split the conservative vote against a potentially united left. On the other hand, they don't want their agenda to be pinned to Ford.
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I think that the conservative establishment has no choice but to put a different candidate forward. They'll distance themselves very far from Ford. I can't see Ford having that 40%, by the way. Petulant guys like RF have a way of pissing off all but their diehards. Watch'n'see.

Perhaps the most interesting thing about the next election, aside from who wins, will be exactly your point -- who will take the "conservative establishment" spot away from RF.
 
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Earlier this week I received a robocall purported to be from Olivia Chow pleading with me to stay on the line for some kind of Town Hall meeting or whatever.

Anyone else experience this? I can't imagine anyone less likely than me to vote for her for any office. I hung up about 5 seconds into the message which is much more time than other junk calls get.
 
TheTigerMaster said:
Real Torntonians don't show joy. :rolleyes:
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Unless they're high on crack and hugging crack dealers

8398035.jpg
 
spider said:
Earlier this week I received a robocall purported to be from Olivia Chow pleading with me to stay on the line for some kind of Town Hall meeting or whatever.

Anyone else experience this? I can't imagine anyone less likely than me to vote for her for any office. I hung up about 5 seconds into the message which is much more time than other junk calls get.
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I am a downtowner and an urban elite if any such thing ever existed. And I will vote against Ford. If that means I have to hold my nose and vote for Chow, then I will.

I can't stand Chow, but I'll vote for her if I must.

I'd prefer John Tory, to be totally frank.
 
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