[TorontoDoh]

lol, perfect picture

 

[MetroMan]

I've been told by someone in the position to know that there are at least 8 copies of the crack video out there now (with people who've seen it in the dozens). Only 3 of those copies are in hands that are trusted, compelled and/or legally bound not to release it. This person and other people familiar with the path of the now multiplying video believe that a leak online is probably imminent or at least inevitable. Keep your eyes peeled on the site liveleak.com

I don't think that the damage when the video surfaces will be as much about its content but that Ford has lied so persistently -- looked in the eyes of his own supporters and deliberately lied through his teeth. Nobody likes a liar. Noooobody!

 

[cdr108]

I've been told by someone in the position to know that there are at least 8 copies of the crack video out there now (with people who've seen it in the dozens). Only 3 of those copies are in hands that are trusted, compelled and/or legally bound not to release it. This person and other people familiar with the path of the now multiplying video believe that a leak online is probably imminent or at least inevitable. Keep your eyes peeled on the site liveleak.com

I don't think that the damage when the video surfaces will be as much about its content but that Ford has lied so persistently -- looked in the eyes of his own supporters and deliberately lied through his teeth. Nobody likes a liar. Noooobody!

except Frod Nation who will excuse everything his lordship says or does

 

[Silence&Motion]

Slightly off topic from the "sexier" crack issue, but...

Does anyone know if there has ever been polling done on Ford support at the individual level? I've seen a lot of data at the neighbourhood-level (most of it based on the actual 2010 election results), but I've never seen anything at the individual level. I'd be very interested in knowing the demographic characteristics of Ford supporters themselves, not just the demographic characteristics of the neighbourhoods in which Ford supporters live (important distinction that people often neglect to make).

 

[christiesplits]

Slightly off topic from the "sexier" crack issue, but...

Does anyone know if there has ever been polling done on Ford support at the individual level? I've seen a lot of data at the neighbourhood-level (most of it based on the actual 2010 election results), but I've never seen anything at the individual level. I'd be very interested in knowing the demographic characteristics of Ford supporters themselves, not just the demographic characteristics of the neighbourhoods in which Ford supporters live (important distinction that people often neglect to make).

There was a graph circling the net showing that support for Ford among adults over 40 has remained stable throughout his tenure.

 

[MetroMan]

except Frod Nation who will excuse everything his lordship says or does

I'm convinced that this is different. Everybody, regardless of ideology or naïvité has a universal reaction to being lied to: they stop trusting the liar. After this, anything Ford says will be second guessed. When Ford's entire house of cards depends on just enough people believing his lies, he's set himself up to being repeatedly caught in those lies and the whole thing falls apart. When somebody challenges his credibility, people pay attention.

The timing isn't good for the release of the video though. City Hall is on summer break so he doesn't have to face the barrage of reporters once the video comes out. He can just stay away on vacation. Anybody advising him would be smart to get him to release the video in a controlled manner right now and announce that Ford is in rehab until the Fall.

 

[greenleaf]

Slightly off topic from the "sexier" crack issue, but...

Does anyone know if there has ever been polling done on Ford support at the individual level? I've seen a lot of data at the neighbourhood-level (most of it based on the actual 2010 election results), but I've never seen anything at the individual level. I'd be very interested in knowing the demographic characteristics of Ford supporters themselves, not just the demographic characteristics of the neighbourhoods in which Ford supporters live (important distinction that people often neglect to make).

Maybe here? http://www.metapolis.ca/election/

Edit: Just skimmed through it (it's been a couple years) and I don't think it quite has what you're looking for.

 

[Silence&Motion]

Maybe here? http://www.metapolis.ca/election/

Unfortunately that study uses neighbourhood-level data.

However, I did find this Forum Research survey. It's not great, but it does help narrow down theories on Ford's support. For instance, it shows that people reporting non-European ethnicity are less likely than the average Torontonian to approve of Ford (which refutes the idea the Ford has some kind of special connection with minority voters that "downtown elites" don't have). On the other hand, people with lower income seem generally more likely to approve of Ford (though it doesn't look very strong). Education has a much stronger impact on Ford support (people with university degrees are much less likely to approve of him), which might be influencing income. I suspect if we were to control for education, we'd see the opposite relationship or no relationship between income and Ford support.

 

[MisterF]

I don't think it was clever at all, it was a slap in the face and really bad PR. Why almost a decade later do you think many still call it the "Skydome", or "the Dome"? Had Rogers been respectful of this building, known around the world, it would have been Rogers Skydome, and I for one would have been quite content with that. Calling it Rogers Centre just made me dislike that company even more. I look forward to getting Bell FIBE soon so that I never have to deal with them again.

Hey just because I think marketing can be clever that doesn't mean I like it! Rogers and their competitors make some of the most irritating ads on TV. Honestly I don't think Rogers cares that people don't like it. Just as many people don't like Bell and Telus so it all works out in the end. Anyway, I do actually hear quite a few people call it Rogers Centre, they tend to be younger - people who didn't grow up with the SkyDome name.

 

[PinkLucy]

I'm convinced that this is different. Everybody, regardless of ideology or naïvité has a universal reaction to being lied to: they stop trusting the liar. After this, anything Ford says will be second guessed. When Ford's entire house of cards depends on just enough people believing his lies, he's set himself up to being repeatedly caught in those lies and the whole thing falls apart. When somebody challenges his credibility, people pay attention.

The timing isn't good for the release of the video though. City Hall is on summer break so he doesn't have to face the barrage of reporters once the video comes out. He can just stay away on vacation. Anybody advising him would be smart to get him to release the video in a controlled manner right now and announce that Ford is in rehab until the Fall.

I don't know. Ford has lied multiple times in the past and far too many people just don't seem to care. Why will they this time?

 

[mrtinfoilsocket]

I've been told by someone in the position to know that there are at least 8 copies of the crack video out there now (with people who've seen it in the dozens). Only 3 of those copies are in hands that are trusted, compelled and/or legally bound not to release it. This person and other people familiar with the path of the now multiplying video believe that a leak online is probably imminent or at least inevitable. Keep your eyes peeled on the site liveleak.com

I'm not disputing your source but I am curious... If there's so many copies floating around do you know how come it hasn't leaked by now? I do indeed believe the video exists (existed?) but that's the part that has been troubling me for a while. This type of stuff doesn't tend to remain buried this long.

 

[MetroMan]

I'm not disputing your source but I am curious... If there's so many copies floating around do you know how come it hasn't leaked by now? I do indeed believe the video exists (existed?) but that's the part that has been troubling me for a while. This type of stuff doesn't tend to remain buried this long.

Fear. If I know you have it and you know that I know, then you won't release it if it implicates me or somebody that I don't want to get in trouble. But as the pool of copies gets wider, the group of people who could have released it becomes untraceable which is why these people believe that the leak is imminent.

 

[MetroMan]

I don't know. Ford has lied multiple times in the past and far too many people just don't seem to care. Why will they this time?

Because it's such a high profile yes or no lie. He and his brother have denied it over and over, calling those who've seen it liars, so if the video does come out showing him smoking crack, that TheStar and Gawker were in fact telling the truth, then it'll be pretty clear to everyone that he lied.

When he lied in the past, few people were paying attention or his lies weren't so easily observed. With this case, it's arguably Toronto's biggest news story gathering even international attention so that when the answer is finally given to "Is there a Rob Ford crack smoking video", Ford will be very clearly and very publicly labeled a liar.

 

[Peepers]

I've been told by someone in the position to know that there are at least 8 copies of the crack video out there now (with people who've seen it in the dozens). Only 3 of those copies are in hands that are trusted, compelled and/or legally bound not to release it. This person and other people familiar with the path of the now multiplying video believe that a leak online is probably imminent or at least inevitable. Keep your eyes peeled on the site liveleak.com

I don't think that the damage when the video surfaces will be as much about its content but that Ford has lied so persistently -- looked in the eyes of his own supporters and deliberately lied through his teeth. Nobody likes a liar. Noooobody!

I saw a similar comment posted in the SUN:

HarryBongers • 2 hours ago −
Everyone might want to keep an eye on liveleak dot com over the next few days. It's about to get interesting.

 

[MetroMan]

I saw a similar comment posted in the SUN:

The specificity of Live Leak corroborates what I've heard. Chatter is starting to go around and it's getting louder. Copying the video seems to be getting easier so the number of copies is growing. That's why my source and people they know think its release is imminent. Live Leak may be where its headed because from what I understand, they don't appear to monitor or censor content.