So we have our first declared Election 2014 Ford opponent: former City Councillor David Soknacki -- a Conservative. With Conservative Karen Stintz almost certainly running and Conservative Councillors Denzil Minan-Wong and Michael Thompson biting the inside of their cheeks, the right is getting really crowded. On the left we had Shelley Carroll who's already promised to stay out if Olivia Chow is running. Then there's Adam Vaughan who the media seems to be more interested in him running than he is. In reality, Vaughan's perfectly comfortable as a shoe in life long Councillor where he can continue to make a big difference in one of the city's most important wards. He's not running. So far it's just Olivia (although I'm still hearing whispers of Pantalone and Giambrone both wanting to make a comeback but I find both unlikely to succeed in any measure).
While I don't think that vote splitting on the Right is going to affect Ford too much and that this may be more of a Ford against everybody else rather than a Rights vs Left battle, I'm convinced that having a bunch of Conservatives piling up on Ford will hurt him with the real Conservative demographic who just want an effective Conservative in power. Some of them will no doubt play the bad cop role here doling out negative ads. How else is a Conservative going to run against Ford? They're going to want to prove how ineffective he's been in moving forward a Conservative agenda.
The recent approval ratings improvement and subway victory for Ford notwithstanding, I think his odds of winning the next election are getting even worse with Soknacki's entry into the race. It'll be the first of at least 2 more.