However, campaigns do matter and Ford might have a chance at regaining a small portion of support, enough to make a difference in a very equal split between the two frontrunners. Ford 31% Chow 30% Tory 30% Other 9%. It could happen.
...But I'm content with our odds. My big concern is to see Ford not only lose but come out completely demolished with reality slamming him in the face like a tonne of bricks. I don't just want him out, I want him never to come back. A humiliating loss (3rd or 4th place) might just do that.
Once he's gone, the new Mayor and City Council need to get to work on making changes so that another Rob Ford never happens again. Ranked ballots, term limits, impeachment and ethical rules/consequences with real teeth. That's a quadruple lock that will definitively slay the monster that has been Rob Ford.
Yes, in several different dimensions.
Vote-splitting is a real worry in a first-past-the-post system. Popular vote breakdown for federal by-election in Calgary Centre, November 2012:
36.9%: Weak Tory candidate whose campaign strategy seemed to consist entirely of not talking to reporters and not attending all-candidates meetings.
32.7%: Strong Liberal candidate.
25.7%: Strong Green candidate.
3.9%: NDP. Hey, it's Calgary we're talking about.
So, Joan Crockatt, congratulations! You're off to Ottawa with the non-support of 63.1% of people who voted ...
Over a year later, this still bums me out, but honestly, I must admit that failing to reduce the count of low-profile useless CPC backbenchers by one is not among the worst electoral disasters ever.
On the other hand, I'm a few thousand km away and cannot deal with the nausea induced by the mere thought of a close loss by RoFo, let alone a reelection. "Completely demolished" is the right goal.
"Ranked ballots, term limits, impeachment and ethical rules/consequences with real teeth." I agree with 3 out 4, especially, emphatically, ranked ballots. But why term limits? If a councillor, mayor, MPP/MLA or MP has been excellent for years and shows no signs of slipping, why arbitrarily boot them out?.