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Lamport Davenport said:
Here’s the Assumptions Arithmetic that worries me:

  • ~ 8% support for Stintz
  • ~ 8% support for Soknacki
  • ~ 1% support for all fringe candidates
  • 27% = Alan Keyes Constant = Ford Nation core support
  • 44% = subtotal
  • 100% -44% = 56%
  • 56% divide by 2 front-runner candidates (Tory & Chow, Ginsberg & Wong, Wayne & Shuster, etc)
= 28% each

Question: how many additional points – from low-information voters – does FooNayshun need to win? :(

NB: margin of error is still about 3%
Click to expand...

We're in maybe the second inning. A long way to go.
 
So, after all that, I gather the dead-line for removing oneself from the ballot September 12.

Until then, can I float the theory that Karen Stintz left her purse behind ON PURPOSE . . . and picked it up later.

I keed. I keed.
 
sweetlou said:
Agreed. I am finding this very weird. Is she taunting him or is she under threat of blackmail? I really doubt they are in any kind of political alliance.
Click to expand...

When Ford's drug use first came up he made threats about other members of City Hall not keeping their noses clean. Stintz aka Ditz probably did lines with him one night and he's got a pic or other proof, likely video from Muzik.

This is just a wild guess on my part but it fits his MO.
 
JWBF said:
Flagg is quite dense and a heterophobe, but the scary stuff is that people chimed in with their expert opinions.
Click to expand...

*And*, likely zip, zilch, zero who'd ever heard (or cared) about the inspiration for the gesture.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Like_Me

Then again, maybe the reason why the first three hours were boring for the guy ia that within that context, if you've seen one garishly-garbed 60something wackjob, you've seen them all. So everybody took him in stride (probably because a silent majority among them had no clue as to what his garb was meant to signify)
 
Roy's Square said:
So, after all that, I gather the dead-line for removing oneself from the ballot September 12.

Until then, can I float the theory that Karen Stintz left her purse behind ON PURPOSE . . . and picked it up later.

I keed. I keed.
Click to expand...

There are a couple of strategies for no-hope mayoral candidates to employ (at this point assuming it will be everyone other than Tory/Chow):

1. Withdraw completely by Sep 12th. Highly unlikely for anyone barring something brazen (ahem)
2. Drop down to a ward position by Sep 12th. Ford and Stintz could both do this credibly, maybe Soks but hard to see why he would want that. If Stintz/Soks do this they are probably gunning for deputy mayor / budget chief (which is hardly worth the effort of running for mayor). Tory/Chow of course have no chance at this option
3. "Withdraw" from the race after Sep 12th but your name must stay on the ballot. Stintz is the only one who could pull this off. If she does then you have to assume that she's really got her sights set on a federal seat. She'll have lined up a cushy radio spot or board chair position to keep her name in the news until 2015. No advantage for Soks to do this unless he gets a sweet deal from the eventual winner.
4. Fight to the end and expect to lose. This is the most likely outcome for Soks and Ford. Stintz could also take this path, but if she wants to run federally then a gracious withdrawal is a better setup. You go down with honour and all that, but staying to the end squanders whatever political capital you still have
4a. Post loss, have your designated patsy resign their just-won ward seat and trigger a mandatory by-election. This may be a fantasy Plan C for the Ford camp, but is high risk and would likely suffer from voter blowback. The Fords could certainly try something this stupid, but not the others
 
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Sharknado. No explanation needed:

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The big question is - does Stintz think she is smarter than her constituents? If she does I think she is sunk. Kind of a high rent neighborhood for a graduated school trustee to tell her constituents why she would sell out to an idiot. Its not like she is Ignatieff and can actually back up an intellectually based decision. Didn't work out for him either... btw.
 
I don't see Soknacki bowing out to become councillor. He wouldn't aim for Ainslie's ward since Ainslie is working with him, and that's Soknacki's old ward. He has his own business and would just go back to running it, where as if he became mayor, he said he would step back. I think that he's in it for the long run unless it looks like Ford is improving, and at that point I think he'd put his support behind Chow instead of Tory since they are both LRT people and are making it a big part of their platforms.
 
themarc said:
The big question is - does Stintz think she is smarter than her constituents? If she does I think she is sunk. Kind of a high rent neighborhood for a graduated school trustee to tell her constituents why she would sell out to an idiot. Its not like she is Ignatieff and can actually back up an intellectually based decision. Didn't work out for him either... btw.
Click to expand...

Stintz - she didn't leave the kitchen table for you?
 
If Stintz drops out, then suddenly backs Ford, the Fords may have some serious dirt on her. Maybe I'm just watching too many episodes of House of Cards (like there could be too many).
 
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