Some of the numbers are interesting though I remain very skeptical of Forum. In a three way race this election is taking on the appearance of 2010, with Tory and Chow in the Smitherman and Pantalone roles. If the race remains this close, but Tory retains his significant lead over Chow, will Chow do the honourable thing and bow out? (Something that Pantalone should have done)
The Forum Poll suggests 2 trends:
1. Ford's support appears to stagnant in the low-to-mid-20's. All his secondary numbers are still decisively negative.
2. Chow's support appears to be falling and Tory is the beneficiary. Not sure how far apart they really are b/c Forum polls landlines exclusively. However, all the campaign teams knew about this trend weeks ago, which is why all the candidates hammered away at Tory's policy positions at the East York debate.
Problem is we're really suffering from a lack of data. So far, we've had all the Forum surveys, plus one-offs from Nanos and Dimitri Pantazopoulos. That's not enough. I suspect we'll get a clearer picture after Labour Day when everyone's back from vacation and more voters start to engage in the race, plus some polling heavyweights like Ekos, Ipsos, Abacus etc. get into the field regularly. But I imagine privately both the Ford and Chow camps are somewhat worried about what they're seeing.
Ford's numbers - for a highly-visible, well-known incumbent running for re-election - are seriously bad. Factor in the highly-publicized return from rehab and they look even worse. Silverstein was hoping it would provide a bounce in the polls by getting some of Ford's moderate supporters back from Tory. However, all the rehab stint seemed to do is stop his base from shrinking, not grow it. Will it provide a boost in the coming weeks? Maybe, if Ford can convince these softer conservatives his recovery is real and there's no relapse. But right now, at least, that doesn't appear to be happening.
Chow's challenge is altogether different. It's not clear what has hurt her, but the Forum Poll suggests she's losing the support of women voters, some of whom are now backing Tory. Why is this? Forum provides no further data to answer that question. But the downward trend is also reflected in the Nanos and Pantazopoulos polls earlier, so it appears to be a real issue for her. Losing the mantle of front-runner in the race and thus the oft-repeated line that she's the "only candidate who can beat Ford" is also potentially damaging, because it appears she's no longer the first choice of so-called "strategic voters" whose main motivation in getting out to vote is to defeat the Fords.
Again, we have to mention all the caveats. Not a lot of polling data. It's the height of summer. Forum polls only landlines. The Toronto electorate is notoriously volatile. But even with all that caution we can PROBABLY say: 1. Chow's support is falling. 2. Most voters have made their minds up already about the mayor, and what they've decided about him doesn't bode well for him on October 27th.
