Bah, it's the same old "he COULD win!" that's been in the air since at least Doolittle's book came out, and probably before. I'm sticking with my sub-20% prediction in the poll. (And I will say that on the off-chance he somehow comes out ahead in a 3-way race with Chow and Tory that, more than Ford, that would say some very scary things about our electoral system and the maturity, political and otherwise, of the people living here. But it won't happen!)
There are callow and stupid and ignorant and amoral people who will vote for this guy. 2/3 of the city's residents absolutely will not. Yeah, it matters who comes out to vote etc. but I put no stock in these polls. I don't know the last time I saw a poll nail anything significant, including the recent provincial election, the Ford election, the last federal election, Obama's re-election...
Ford Nation won't budge but everyone else is done. Anyone dumb enough to be duped by his reform act was always in Ford Nation anyway. Anyone paying attention saw him lose a pointless vote on the Raptors facility the other day that proved that even if he was improbably re-elected, he'd have no sway over council. Oh, I know, he keeps talking up how 15 new councillors are coming on board etc. but:
a) I put even less stock in his ability to predict electoral results than I do in his ability to do something honest, coherent or intelligent;
b) There's no way to know who those 15 people will be. What if Dan Fox takes out David Shiner, for example?
I know those people who would still vote for him are too dim or otherwise lack the understanding that even if you fully back his agenda you need him to win AND at least 10 new councillors who will back him but everyone else does.
I understand the need to prepare for the worst but some of this is too much. It would be easy, in a weird way, to think he really is smarter than we think and that Doug (as this guy claims) is some sort of campaign genius; it would give some context to to the existential need to understand how and why this has all unfolded as it has, but there is no bigger picture. They're just a couple of dumb bullies and soon they'll be done. After Labour Day stuff's gonna get real. This has all been prologue.
