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Lenser said:
If I had to lay odds, I'd say it's fifty-fifty. He could easily be given a slap on the wrist.

That said, I too think his brand is looking awfully tarnished. If he was obliged to step down and then campaigned to get back in, I don't think he'd make it back in. No amount of tough talk would help him get the numbers he'd need.
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I'd take that bet - I think he won't lose his office. But the judge's decision will say he behaved like an idiot, which will light up the press for a couple more days.
 
Apparently LGBT people are being encouraged to go to Rob Ford's backyard barbecue. Seeing as he was "too busy" to attend any Pride Week events, the idea is to bring Pride to him.

When Lauren Ash and her friends heard that Mayor Rob Ford invited everyone in Toronto to his mother’s Etobicoke home for a barbecue, they immediately decided they would attend.

Ash saw the open invitation as a good opportunity for members of the LGBT community to meet the mayor and talk to him about issues in their community.

“He’s been too busy to attend our events, so why not bring the event to him?†Ash said.

“We don’t want anyone to cause any trouble. We want to be respectful. This is his private property… we just want to show up as invited guests,†Ash said.
* * *
Ash and her friends created a Facebook event to get other people on board with their plan.

A few hours after its creation, more than 3,500 people had been invited to a “Backyard Pride Parade at Rob Ford’s.â€

“Bring your Pride in whatever form you like and let’s show Rob what our community is all about! Above all, let’s keep this peaceful, fun, and political,†the event’s description says.

Ash and fellow organizer Leigh Williams said the group hasn’t figured out the logistics yet. They may meet and walk to the Ford house together or arrive in a big pink bus.

“We just want to take part in the diversity the Fords are trying to create at this event and represent ou community,†Williams said.
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I was discussing the transcript with a couple of friends who practice law and it's not looking good for Ford on pretty much all defense fronts.

$3150 is not an insignificant amount of money. $5 is. $20 is. Maybe $100. Not $1000, not $3150.

Ford incriminated himself repeatedly regarding his intent to defend himself and participate in the vote. The law permits unintended participation in a conflict of interest, not ignorance of the law. There's a difference. Say if Rob Ford thought he was voting on a different matter and pressed the vote button, thats unintended. Ford was completely aware what he was voting on. He even spoke on the matter.

He didn't know it was a conflict of interest? Even a lay person understands that there's a conflict in voting to pardon yourself from a fine. Ford has 12 years in City Hall and grew up in a political household. He was given the rulebook at least 4 times and has demonstrated knowledge of conflict of interest in several instances -- even without an aid informing him. He has no excuse.

He has no defense arguments left. His only saving grace is if the judge finds that the punishment is too harsh and figures out a way around the law. But considering how Ford has continuously ignored the law and is a known liar, I don't think the judge will find much motivation to pity him.

There's a very good chance that Ford will lose this case and we'll be rid of him before the Fall.
 
^ I would like to think that you are correct, Metroman --- that there is a good chance we will be rid of him by Fall, that the slithery guy's luck has run out. But why do I get a feeling in the pit of my stomach that he is the mother of all evils (like doggie-doo on a shoe), and that he will get away with a slap on the wrist? Maybe because he's Rob Ford. An equally annoying topic is the who/how of replacing him.
 
I think council should pick an interm mayor from within, and I would think that an inoffensive right-wing councillor might be the best bet for all.

Doug Holyday was mentioned before - he'd be a good pick as he has little ambition anymore, has mayoral experience (Etobicoke) and apart from a few stupid comments (families downtown), he draws little attention, and he's competant. Michael Thompson was mentioned as well, except he's more ambitious and a possible candidate for mayor. DMW, Nunziata, Mammo are too inflammatory.
 
Agreed. What I'd be interested in knowing in that scenario is the influence of Doug Ford, if any, on the interim mayor - and how that dynamic will have to be managed, vis-a-vis the more "activist" right wing elements.

AoD
 
TonyV said:
^ I would like to think that you are correct, Metroman --- that there is a good chance we will be rid of him by Fall, that the slithery guy's luck has run out. But why do I get a feeling in the pit of my stomach that he is the mother of all evils (like doggie-doo on a shoe), and that he will get away with a slap on the wrist? Maybe because he's Rob Ford. An equally annoying topic is the who/how of replacing him.
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The only thing preventing me from being confident that Ford will lose is that he has gotten away before. My gut tells me this is just too easy. If it were anyone else I'd say he'd be toast but this is almost too good to be true. That's it? We're done with Rob Ford? An objective reading of the law and of his cross examination would say: Yes. Ford is gone. But let's just wait and see.

For his replacement, I haven't gotten enough insider opinions but it is likely that Councillors will take a cue from the public. If they appoint a Mayor, will the public view him/her as illegitimate because they weren't elected by us? On the other hand, will it be wise to spend millions of dollars on an election and give Rob Ford a mouthpiece to continue to divide this city? My hunch at this point is to say that Council will appoint a quiet Mayor that is more or less in line with what the voters elected in 2010. Deputy Mayor Doug Holyday or Deputy Speaker John Parker. I'd prefer Parker but Holyday is probably the obvious choice.

We'll be having an election campaign starting in just over a year so I think it's unlikely that council will call for a by-election unless public opinion visibly demands it.
 
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AlvinofDiaspar said:
Agreed. What I'd be interested in knowing in that scenario is the influence of Doug Ford, if any, on the interim mayor - and how that dynamic will have to be managed, vis-a-vis the more "activist" right wing elements.

AoD
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Doug on his own, with his rookie Council seat will be nothing but a rookie councillor. His power lies in being the Mayor's brother. Rob listens to Doug so some Councillors kiss Doug's ass because he's a proxy Mayor. Without that, Doug is nothing.
 
I am also concerned that he'll get away with this, as he has gotten away with so many things in the past. The issue isn't the dollar amount, the whole situation is representative of his "the rules don't apply to me" persona. He's been on Council for long enough to know the rules; ignorance of the rules doesn't fly here. And really? He doesn't "recall" the handbook? I can believe he never read it, but I don't buy that he doesn't remember getting it. Then again, all that legal and rules mumbo-jumbo stuff is probably still sitting unopened in a box in his basement or something.

The entire time I was reading those transcripts, I could hear his whiny, petulant voice in my ear. I hope we don't have to hear it for much longer.
 
Another point for Doug Holyday is that he is deputy mayor. It makes the messaging extremely easy.
 
Automation Gallery said:
Hmm right, and that scares many of you lefties...
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Another insightful, quality post.

My intellegent and reasoned answer to your cheap shot:

An interim mayor ideally should not run in a future, regular election. This is because he or she is selcted by a council appointment instead of a democratic election. It also gives the unfair advantage of incumbancy. That could or should rule Thompson out.
 
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MetroMan said:
For his replacement, I haven't gotten enough insider opinions but it is likely that Councillors will take a cue from the public.
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Oh, I can't resist......you mean the public that elected Ford? It would seem that taking the cue from the public is that last thing on anyone's mind here. It is all about getting rid of Ford.

As I have said before, I don't have a horse in this game. If anything, I kinda wish Ford had never stepped up for election.....setting personal politics aside, IMO he has just become such a polarizing figure with one "side" spending all of their time/energy trying to figure out how to embaress/out/dethrone him and the other side seemingly looking for ways to antagonize.

That said, I think (and I may have explained this theory before...so I apologize for repeating it but it leads into what I want to say next) he got elected via a really, really, simple mechanism. He came out with one platform/statement..."get rid of the Gravy Train"....playing right into the mindset that the general public has that all politicians do is spend/waste their hard earned tax dollars. Anyone with any idea of the cost of government would know that there simply could not be that much waste.......but the public does not take that much time to understand...alll they "know" is they pay taxes and politicians waste them.....Ford (having never used his office expense budget) was the one guy that could sell that stance legitimately. The other candidates (all of them...which is really shocking) made a simple error.....instead of finding another topic....instead of forcing Ford to talk about something else....they went on this rampage of calling/hinting/insuating that Ford was a simpleton...in other words "dumb"....the implication was that these "elitists" were calling anyone that could think of voting for Ford "dumb" also....I am no expert, but calling someone "dumb" is hardly the way to ask for their vote......seriously, I think that was the total summation of that election (sure there was a lot of fighting/debating....but it was between the other candidates....Ford just was gonna cut the gravy, man!).

Here is a bit of outisde observer advise to people who want, for whatever reason, to rid the city of Mr. Ford long term. Convince Mr. Madger to drop this case, tell Mr. Ruby to back off.........Ford's opponents are making the exact same mistake again. While it is possible (possible, but not a "for sure") that this case will lead to Mr. Ford losing his job for the balance of this term, there is no chance he gets a ban from holding the office again.

So, his next campaign....."To get his job back"....."I raised $3k for kids football....they kicked me out of office for it"....seriously, the whole "conflict of interest" angle will only play to people who take the time to follow this stuff.....but they/we are, by far, not the majority of people....the general public read headlines (if that), the catch soundbites, there is a reason a short messaging system like Twitter is so popular............remove him from office now and Man of the People Ford will be back in two years telling the everyday guy to vote for him as opposed to the guys who hijacked democracy over $3k in donations to minor football"......if they couldn't punch holes in "Cut the Gravy"....good luck to them with that!
 
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