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Here is another Forum Poll, this one taken on August 25, concerning topless beaches:

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/TO Topless Beaches News Release (2014 08 26) Forum Research.pdf

In this is another table showing an answer by Mayoral Preference, this time including David Socknaki. Here are the percentages:

Total 931
John Tory - 367/931, 39.4%
Rob Ford - 260/931, 27.9%
Olivia Chow - 211/931, 22.7%
David Soknacki - 38/931, 4.1%
Other - 55/931, 5.9%

So now we have two documented non-mayoral race Forum polls that show Tory well out in front, and Ford stuck at the same 28% ceiling or lower. Yet, when Forum releases a mayoral race poll, Ford is suddenly gaining ground. Hmmmmmm.....
 
FromTheHammer said:
Here is another Forum Poll, this one taken on August 25, concerning topless beaches:

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/TO Topless Beaches News Release (2014 08 26) Forum Research.pdf

In this is another table showing an answer by Mayoral Preference, this time including David Socknaki. Here are the percentages:

Total 931
John Tory - 367/931, 39.4%
Rob Ford - 260/931, 27.9%
Olivia Chow - 211/931, 22.7%
David Soknacki - 38/931, 4.1%
Other - 55/931, 5.9%

So now we have two documented non-mayoral race Forum polls that show Tory well out in front, and Ford stuck at the same 28% ceiling or lower. Yet, when Forum releases a mayoral race poll, Ford is suddenly gaining ground. Hmmmmmm.....
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It seems that if the question focusses more on the people, Ford drops. If it focusses on major issues (i.e. transit and spending), Ford support is higher. I wonder if Chow and Tory will continue to debate who like the FWLRT and SELRT more?
 
PinkLucy said:
So who do we complain to? Not that anything will be done until after the election, and even then, it will just be a finger wagging.
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I got a call from Nanos last night. They asked which of the five main candidates I would vote for -- Chow, Tory, Ford, Soknacki or Thomson! Then they asked questions with only Chow, Tory and Ford as the choices. First question was what is the major issue facing Toronto today. Then there were questions about who would do the best job on transit, as a leader, representing Toronto -- about 6 or 7 questions. I don't remember them all, but I do know that I didn't name Ford in any of them. :)
 
FromTheHammer said:
Here is another Forum Poll, this one taken on August 25, concerning topless beaches:

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/TO Topless Beaches News Release (2014 08 26) Forum Research.pdf

In this is another table showing an answer by Mayoral Preference, this time including David Socknaki. Here are the percentages:

Total 931
John Tory - 367/931, 39.4%
Rob Ford - 260/931, 27.9%
Olivia Chow - 211/931, 22.7%
David Soknacki - 38/931, 4.1%
Other - 55/931, 5.9%

So now we have two documented non-mayoral race Forum polls that show Tory well out in front, and Ford stuck at the same 28% ceiling or lower. Yet, when Forum releases a mayoral race poll, Ford is suddenly gaining ground. Hmmmmmm.....
Click to expand...
The top-less question was included in the poll I did last week. I forgot about it because I was stunned by the raccoon question. I agree with your take on the poll, there is no way Ford is gaining ground. There aren't enough crazy people in this city for him to be re-elected. We just need to remember rational thinking people out number the crazies, and this madness will be over in less than 2 months.
 
BurlOak said:
It seems that if the question focusses more on the people, Ford drops. If it focusses on major issues (i.e. transit and spending), Ford support is higher. I wonder if Chow and Tory will continue to debate who like the FWLRT and SELRT more?
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I've taken a few of these IVR polls in the past. Each question is asked independently, and then some of the answers are used to categorize the main question(s) of the poll. So I don't think the "poll issue" questions would have any influence on the "mayoral preference" question.

My point in these posts is that Forum's mayoral polling has shown Ford going from 27% to 31% during the month of August, yet their own non-mayoral polling has Ford range bound between 24% and 28%, just like he has been all along.
 
FromTheHammer said:
So now we have two documented non-mayoral race Forum polls that show Tory well out in front, and Ford stuck at the same 28% ceiling or lower. Yet, when Forum releases a mayoral race poll, Ford is suddenly gaining ground. Hmmmmmm.....
Click to expand...

Is that because you're looking at raw data and then data altered to reflect demographics though?
 
sweetlou said:
Once again, we are being conned. Of all the aspects of the Don Bosco/TCDSB story, rolling in goose poo is the least significant part. The other elements are far more important: Screaming matches and threatening teachers, taking kids on unauthorized trips and running unauthorized practices (without liability coverage), attempts to bribe janitors, even stiffing the school for money.

Goose poo will wash off and could be considered an unpleasant side effect of all those odd things that happen in sports jockdom.

Being sucked into the poo, as it were, is another act of deflection from the Fords and Warmington.
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Exactly! Well noted :\
 
This photo of RoFo from 4 years ago is kind of a metaphor for his term, isn't it? Even has the Don Bosco element covered. Here's hoping it's also prophetic as to his chances at re-election!!

http://thestar.blogs.com/.a/6a00d8341bf8f353ef013487e6add6970c-pi

umbrrofo.jpg
 

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L23 said:
Is that because you're looking at raw data and then data altered to reflect demographics though?
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I think that is absolutely the case. Eric Grenier at http://www.threehundredeight.com/search/label/Ontario gives a good post-Ontario election analysis of how pollsters "likely voter models" (which includes demographic adjustments) skewed their polling analysis, making it seem like a closer race than it really was. His conclusion is that if they stuck to their raw averages, they would have painted a much different (and arguably more accurate) picture throughout the race:

So instead of a yo-yoing, too-close-to-call campaign, the Liberals would have been considered to be in a good position from mid-May straight through to election day. The Liberal lead would not have been large, but with the exception of the post-debate period, the PCs would never have been pegged to have more than 34.9% support after May 14, with the Liberals never below 35.3% after May 16.
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As I said before, Forum had a "baked-in" likely voter model for their Ontario polls. I think they may have the same sort of thing going on in their mayoral polling and it is skewing Ford's numbers upwards.

ETA: I've been noodling around in my head a theory in the past couple days, that the same electorate that delivered a solid thumping to the PC's in Toronto is going to be voting for mayor in two months. From what I've read, the behind the scenes "Liberal" support right now is aligning behind Tory. I wouldn't be surprised to see the mayoral vote cut along the same partisan lines that the Ontario election did. If that happens (keeping in mind that this is just a theory), the final result will be Tory at 48% (the liberal popular vote in Toronto) with Ford (PC) at 24% and Chow (NDP) at 24%. This theory is also buttressed by the fact that Chow isn't really running on a true NDP style progressive platform - the same mistake that cost Andrea Horwath in Toronto.
 
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It makes sense that Forum would boost Ford. Not because they support Ford, but because a Ford surge drives votes to the frontrunner (which is Tory).
 
Franks2000inchTV said:
It makes sense that Forum would boost Ford. Not because they support Ford, but because a Ford surge drives votes to the frontrunner (which is Tory).
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The only thing Forum really wants is for people to pay them to conduct polls. People won't use them if there's no trust in the outputs, but a sense of urgency drives demand. They need to balance those competing needs. Everything else is just a means to an end.
 
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