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I think her miscalculation is that she looked at Rob Ford's polling numbers and decided he wasn't a real threat and decided to mostly ignore him. That may have been the logical thing to do, but emotionally, Toronto needed to see a Ford-killer. We needed to see someone come in and strike that fucker down, and she didn't give us that catharsis. She still thinks Tory is her real opponent, and that may be technically true, but attacking him isn't going to help her numbers. People don't care if she can beat Tory---they're not really scared of him. They need someone that they're confident can beat Ford(s).

This. Chow targeting Tory makes conventional sense. Unfortunately right now conventional sense is thrown out like an empty vodka bottle from an Escalade. I think you're quite right when you described the general mood. While it can be a difficult thing to quantify, it is real. Metaphorically, I think there was a desire to see this go down. Ya know, metaphorically speaking.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZX1lLN4VZc
 
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I think her miscalculation is that she looked at Rob Ford's polling numbers and decided he wasn't a real threat and decided to mostly ignore him. That may have been the logical thing to do, but emotionally, Toronto needed to see a Ford-killer. We needed to see someone come in and strike that fucker down, and she didn't give us that catharsis. She still thinks Tory is her real opponent, and that may be technically true, but attacking him isn't going to help her numbers. People don't care if she can beat Tory---they're not really scared of him. They need someone that they're confident can beat Ford(s).

But that's not quite right. Think back to the early days of her campaign: she positioned herself as "the only one who can beat Rob Ford." It was ALL about him, Tory was a non-entity. But for some reason, here strategists' bone-headed approach was to try to beat Ford by playing Ford's game. So she was all about short slogans and repetition, keeping taxes low, personal anecdotes, etc. etc. Any hint of lefty progressive type stuff was kept safely under wraps. She moulded herself into a fake populist politician, it was a poor fit and it showed, and her base hated it.

The thing that really killed her, though, was Soknacki. She spent the entire summer in centrist guise, saying all the wrong things, while here was this principled, progressive, proud nerd type saying all the right things (I hate to say it, but from the relative safety of being essentially a fringe candidate, with a lot less risk involved in taking a hard line on policies---for example, imagine the fight on his hands if he'd been elected and actually tried to remove street parking on major arteries). Chow's natural base ate it up and shifted allegiance en masse. If Soknacki had never come along, she might have been able to keep them, who knows. But his very existence underscored the disappointment in her campaign position, and he almost forced her to shift tactics and adopt more clearly stated leftist positions (ditching Warren Kinsella in the process---I wonder how much of this fake populist messaging was his doing).

Soknacki dropped out but the damage was already done. I get the sense that many former Chow supporters honestly felt betrayed, and are now reluctant to come back to her and unsure of what to do. Which, in my opinion, is crazy in the face of the alternatives, and a pretty terrible outcome of this campaign.
 
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Oooh... orphaned kittens!

Excellent.

How will Thug fare today at the Empire Club debate? I suspect his strategy will continue to be an all-out attack on Tory, on any level, but the crowd today is likely to be a lot less supportive of Thug, and more on Tory's side. Thug won't have the jeering mob to buoy him today, but will he rise to the debate or drag it down like the last one? Will he play up the accomplishments of his -err, Rob's mayoralty? Should be interesting.
 
Wasn't there supposed to be a Ford fundraiser last night? Or am I dreaming? If I'm not dreaming, any word on the turnout?
 
Wasn't there supposed to be a Ford fundraiser last night? Or am I dreaming? If I'm not dreaming, any word on the turnout?
I don't think there was anything last night, but I did get another call from Doug for the Ford Fest on Saturday. Did everyone in the city get at least 2 calls?
 
But that's not quite right. Think back to the early days of her campaign: she positioned herself as "the only one who can beat Rob Ford." It was ALL about him, Tory was a non-entity. But for some reason, here strategists' bone-headed approach was to try to beat Ford by playing Ford's game. So she was all about short slogans and repetition, keeping taxes low, personal anecdotes, etc. etc. Any hint of lefty progressive type stuff was kept safely under wraps. She moulded herself into a fake populist politician, it was a poor fit and it showed, and her base hated it.

Her campaign IMO seemed to suffer from delayed reading of the game, and numerous small mistakes with some relative big ones. I got a recorded message from Doug's campaign last night, to the BBQ they're having. Kinda funny to hear Doug doing his best to sound cheerful and friendly, and him exclaiming 'Rob!" like a main attraction ferris wheel or something. Doug sounded like that Homer Simpson auto dialer episode. Which to be fair, at least sounds better than bullyboy mode Thug.

Someone named Olivia Chow was also on my call display, unfortunately they didn't leave a message. This might be small potatoes, but too many small potatoes and it can start to bog down her campaign. Not leaving a message is head scratching to me, getting your name out there on a one on one level is still huge in this game. It's possible it was a complete co-incidence and it was someone else named Chow that mistakenly dialed my number. However I don't know anyone in my personal circle named Olivia Chow, and I'm willing to bet a whole nickle that it might be from the Chow campaign. Which if it was, really, least they can do is to leave a message or something. :p

Soknacki dropped out but the damage was already done. I get the sense that many former Chow supporters honestly felt betrayed, and are now reluctant to come back to her and unsure of what to do. Which, in my opinion, is crazy in the face of the alternatives, and a pretty terrible outcome of this campaign.

You're right that Socks had some policies were he actually elected as mayor, chances are council would not pass or would\could not be enforced. His vulcan charm was not a great help in retail politics setting, but he was a "nerd and proud of it". Chow seemed to be fighting internally at times, on whether to let her NDP roots fly proud, or to try to appeal more to centrists. Whether to level some fire at Rob\Doug or to chide them instead, and bringing out the "Maria" stories which to me doesn't quite fit the mood this camping season is in.

Politics is not a nice game, optics can trump actual reality, and it can reward the biggest a-holes and punish those perceived as "weak.", sometimes at a superficial and fickle whim. But the players need to be able to "read the room" so to speak. And right now Chow's campaign seems to have trouble with that IMO.

TL;DR: I may not agree with many of Chow's policies, but at least she projected a clearer image before this campaign. Where did -that- Olivia Chow go?
 
The thing that really killed her, though, was Soknacki. She spent the entire summer in centrist guise, saying all the wrong things, while here was this principled, progressive, proud nerd type saying all the right things (I hate to say it, but from the relative safety of being essentially a fringe candidate, with a lot less risk involved in taking a hard line on policies---for example, imagine the fight on his hands if he'd been elected and actually tried to remove street parking on major arteries). Chow's natural base ate it up and shifted allegiance en masse.

Socks was running at 2-3% most of the time. That's hardly shifting en masse to support him. And since then, the polls that have been conducted suggest his support has gone to Tory. Hardly likely if they were Chow voters, was it?
 
Excellent.

How will Thug fare today at the Empire Club debate? I suspect his strategy will continue to be an all-out attack on Tory, on any level, but the crowd today is likely to be a lot less supportive of Thug, and more on Tory's side. Thug won't have the jeering mob to buoy him today, but will he rise to the debate or drag it down like the last one? Will he play up the accomplishments of his -err, Rob's mayoralty? Should be interesting.

My bet is Doug will be Doug, and he will double down. On what is the real question. He probably won't rise to the debate, his game is to attack when he can, trots out the friendly salesman schtick when he can't. I'm going to go with Doug will try to treat it like a CNN interview. Might be less "I'm the only candidate here who can stop those communists down at city hall" red meat and more bullshit served with a smile. That's assuming Doug is attending, and not suddenly called away at an emergency, like say the Penguin stealing all of Gotham City Hall's batteries.
 
Let's remember that in about a week or so, the election signs will be coming up. And much as with what turned out to be 2003's Miller-Tory twofer, *that* may indicate where the street-level relative strengths lie...
 
Socks was running at 2-3% most of the time. That's hardly shifting en masse to support him. And since then, the polls that have been conducted suggest his support has gone to Tory. Hardly likely if they were Chow voters, was it?

I'm not talking about numbers, I'm talking about "talk": chatter on social media, etc. Campaign war rooms and public perceptions are certainly swayed by that stuff, whether it affects numbers or not. And FWIW it seemed like Socks built his way up to around 6%, which, if it were going to Chow instead, would have made this a far more even race with Tory.

And if Soknacki's numbers went to Tory, that confirms to me that these voters lost faith in Chow and Tory fully inherited the "Anybody but Ford" mantle. The chatter certainly indicated that Socks was winning over typically progressive/leftist types.
 
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Oh there's more in Doug's trunk than orphaned kittens. He also keeps a Ford-branded hardhat and a brand new, unused chainsaw to pull out any time a grateful serf needs a tree cutting down. And of course the media just happened to be passing by at the time.

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/01/01/councillor-doug-ford-takes-chainsaw-to-constituents-fallen-tree
Hey sweetlou, you forgot the safety vest for directing traffic. Doug is just so helpful.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...-cop-during-toronto-blackout/article13093035/
 
Oh there's more in Doug's trunk than orphaned kittens. He also keeps a Ford-branded hardhat and a brand new, unused chainsaw to pull out any time a grateful serf needs a tree cutting down. And of course the media just happened to be passing by at the time.

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/01/01/councillor-doug-ford-takes-chainsaw-to-constituents-fallen-tree

I wonder if he did champion the cause at that next meeting?

ETA no he didn't. Not in the least according to the motions put forward.
 
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