[Lamport Davenport]

L23, do you live outside Toronto, or spend a lot of time talking to Folks "out there" ?

Do you think Doug would still be OK once the inevitable media dirt circulated more outside T.O?

 

[Cooper]

Actually I beg to differ with all the revisionist history that has Doug Ford coming "jaw-droppingly close" to winning on election night.
Doug did well considering the Fords had a maximum ceiling of about 33% of the vote available to them, judging from the polling. He somehow managed to get all of that support out to the polls. That did surprise me given that the Fords had no organization and ground game whatsoever, and it speaks to the passionate support the Fords get from their bedrock base in suburban wards. I actually think Doug did better than Rob would have, because Doug - rightly or wrongly - wasn't as encumbered by scandal.(He should have been, but that's another argument)
But ... and it's a BIG but ... there was never enough support on the table at any time in this campaign for the Fords to win the election. The only hope they had was for Chow to surge by at least 10% in the last week and take all of that 10% from John Tory. Of course, by that time the Chow trendline was clear. She wasn't going to get anything over 25% and would quite probably get less.
Ask yourself what would have happened if Ford and Tory had gone head to head without a 3rd candidate in the race. My guess is Doug would still have pulled down the same numbers - 30 to 33% - but it would go down in history as a beatdown of biblical proportions. Tory would have easily garnered at least 55% and would have had a realistic prospect of getting 60% of the popular vote.
Now, it might be true that the Fords have a great deal of support beyond the boundaries of the city, in the 905 region and perhaps in the 705, as well. But I've never seen any reliable polling that suggests that, so forgive me if I'm skeptical.

You nailed it, Wombat. The Tory/Chow vote combined pretty much hit what pollsters have long identified as the percentage of Torontonians who wanted to be shot of the Fords, the sooner the better. Doug would have been humiliated in a two-way race against Tory.

As for Doug's assumed provincial support in the 905, so what? That regional already votes for the PCPO, doesn't it? Doug needs to deliver Toronto seats, and without Rob's coat tails to ride, who knows how well he'd do in four years time. The main risk is that he'll get more polished at politics (with lots of coaching, no doubt) and will hang on to support that went to him as Rob's proxy. Still, that's a lot of incumbents to knock off.

 

[casita]

I would be more worried of Dougie pushed through a "strong mayoral system" in Queen's Park and installed another Ford or Fordite on the throne.

Throw in Toronto declares a State of Emergency.

How's that for a perfect storm?

 

[L23]

L23, do you live outside Toronto, or spend a lot of time talking to Folks "out there" ?

Do you think Doug would still be OK once the inevitable media dirt circulated more outside T.O?

I live in Toronto, but I talk to a lot of people outside Toronto. And yes, I think he would be ok. We know DoFo's tactics, he'll smear shit over everything in sight, and then anything said against him will be taken as "oh, look, everyone does that, it's just negative campaigning, they all make it up."

 

[casita]

"Frances Nunziata hoping to keep her job as Toronto Council Speaker"
http://www.insidetoronto.com/news-s...g-to-keep-her-job-as-toronto-council-speaker/

Rob ( if he shows up at council ) will need a firm Speaker to guide him.

 

[JGHali]

Screw that. She's awful.

 

[Lamport Davenport]

I live in Toronto, but I talk to a lot of people outside Toronto. And yes, I think he would be ok. We know DoFo's tactics, he'll smear shit over everything in sight, and then anything said against him will be taken as "oh, look, everyone does that, it's just negative campaigning, they all make it up."

May I offer you the post of Dofo's Shadow Camping Manager for Ontario?

PS - the post is largely voluntary and mostly self-appointed and self-managed. I myself held it in the early days of the Toronto meryl campaign, until I was fired. Doug never listened to my ideas anyway.

 

[Lamport Davenport]

This here's the perfect solution for outer suburbs where public transit is rare, but SUVs are plenty: the railcar adapter, as shown in the photo. Turn your excess SUV capacity into a minibus service.

Can you imagine the Escalade on a set of those rail wheels? Subways, subways, subways! It's another Smartrack Innovation.

You're welcome.

 

[wombat]

A Respectful Disagreement

You seem to be ignoring the fact that a lot of people voted for Tory because he's a conservative. If DoFo won and became PCPO, a lot of those conservative votes would go to him, not to Wynne.

With great respect, that's a somewhat shallow and facile analysis.
A lot of people voted for Tory because he's a PROGRESSIVE Conservative - or a Red Tory, if you will. And if Doug Ford becomes leader of the Ontario Conservatives, a lot of those people who occupy that ideological gray zone between Blue Liberal and Red Tory will vote Liberal and not Conservative.
If you think Wynne swept a lot of those 905 ridings with just a combination of progressive and Liberal votes, you're wrong. Plenty of moderate conservatives voted Liberal, as well, because the Tories veered too far to the right under Hudak. That's why many PCs are looking to relative moderates to take back the party from the Harrisite extremists who've been responsible for the party's poor electoral fortunes since 2003. Doug Ford represents a return to the Harris wing of the party, and that's why he won't win.

 

[sno man]

Imma'gree with Greg Banks that Doug might have a better strategy with a friendly takeover of the Trillium Party of Ontario.

They don't seem to have a website, so Doug's templates would be a boon for a start. Their current leader's social media posts seem to be adequately acidic n angry to suit Doug's oeuvre, so I'd say Greg is right that there's a fit. Trillium also seems to have a better track record outside Toronto, so that might help the big lug.

If Doug could use his piss n vinegar flavour to attract more FN types, or at least Toronto-Sun-cultivated Folks to his new Party of the Disaffected he might have evidence of "support" . This in turn could be parlayed into a position where the PCPO feels the need "to bring them into the fold", thus creating a merger with Trillium.

Given that some PCPO members would prefer to scrape the bottoms of our shoes looking for the next Mike Harris rather than reach out to Red Tories, the PCPO can expect to stay in the wilderness, dwindling members, for some time to come.

A merger with a Dofo-led Trillium Party might seem like a good offer, especially since few seem to want to join their main circle jerk.

A similar variation may also help the OPC fold up the Big Tent and toss the Harrisite/Hudackian little "L" libertarian tea-party wannabes, as they bail to bask in the glory of Ford Nation.. Leaving the "red" Tories with a strong leader and a tighter agenda distinctly not the party of Harris or Hudak.

 

[sno man]

Talk to people outside of Toronto, there's a lot of support for the Ford nationalist 'manifesto'. I'm not just talking about the conservatives picking up votes within Toronto, but outside Toronto as well.

I am outside, and where I live voted Lib after many years Con. Largely due to Hudak. The mysteriously perennial fav. Klees retired (there was a lot of local shit about his succession, enough for a book, but) ultimately a popular local Councillor was the OPC candidate, v. a popular local Councillor from the next (smaller) community for the OLP... Many 905 OPC wins were very close.. A lot more support for the middle than F.N.

 

[zang]

Talk to people outside of Toronto, there's a lot of support for the Ford nationalist 'manifesto'. I'm not just talking about the conservatives picking up votes within Toronto, but outside Toronto as well.

Anecdotal.

The people who like Doug Ford will talk him up to no end, while those who don't won't. You will always hear more from the pro-Ford side. Just as around these parts we talk up Calgary's Naheed Nenshi, but when was the last time you heard an anti-progressive mention his name.

There are plenty who think the Fords are a joke.

 

[animatronic]

Anecdotal.

The people who like Doug Ford will talk him up to no end, while those who don't won't. You will always hear more from the pro-Ford side. Just as around these parts we talk up Calgary's Naheed Nenshi, but when was the last time you heard an anti-progressive mention his name.

There are plenty who think the Fords are a joke.

Plus municipal politics are pretty tame. Doug would get his ass kicked by attack ads. The rest of the province won't put up with his b.s. and the libs will have three years to Dion him.

 

[adma]

Strategic voting beat the dogshit out of "vote with my heart". There are legions of Chow voters who are quietly satisfied with Tory so far. Chow voters, you are welcome we did the heavy lifting.

But you seem to forget that even a lot of those who, in the end, opted for Tory over Chow "voted with their hearts" as well. Because they really did feel Tory was the better candidate, never mind the strategic "leading candidate".

Indeed, I predicted that the relative positions of Tory vs Chow wouldn't have been much different if Ford were factored out of the race, and it'd have even echoed Rowlands vs Layton in 1991--well, I looked it up, and I was right: Layton got 56.2% of Rowlands' vote, and Chow got 57.5% of Tory's vote.

 

[adma]

It's really interesting to see people get bent out of shape when the rules are applied to them even though they think they're special.

Wasn't that the basis of RoFo's opposition to red light cameras? Because he got dinged by one?