[JWBF]

Then a very real possibility of Ford more years exists.

Possibilities always exist, that is what has always scared so many people. This is why the good fight is never over, there are too many people trying to take advantage of people.

 

[westyvt]

Sent to the three candidates:
I am not a Canadian and have no business meddling in your local politics, but I am a citizen of the planet and a member of the human race, and I stand profoundly embarrassed for your city. I read every post of the UT Mayor Rob Ford’s Toronto. Please call Rob Ford out - don’t let him lie and mislead without consequences. He has been and continues to be a disaster. I’m sure you know all the reasons why, so I won’t aggravate you by asking you to read the list, but he needs to be confronted by all the viable mayoral candidates - really confronted - the Emperor has no clothes, and no one is standing in the street raising the alarm. Please - don’t be gentle. I wish you luck.

I think the main problem is that we appear to be watching history repeat itself. As it was last time, the two main alternatives to Ford are showing themselves to be unpalatable to say the least. This is a major - and unpleasant - surprise since Tory and Chow, you'd have thought, would be far preferable to Whatsisname and Whozit from the last election...but Chow's campaign thus far has been downright insipid, and Tory's a pompous windbag of a loser who inspires no confidence at all.

And then there's Soks, and yes, he seems like a decent and intlligent guy. But his "bring a calculator to a knifefight" style of campaigning has been mind-boggling to witness. More than the others, he should be bringing the fight to Ford, and I say that from a purely pragmatic viewpoint. Since he's so less high profile than the other two, he has to find a way to stand out somehow, and the only practical way I can think of for him to do that is to act as an attack dog towards the not-inconsiderable target that is our current "Mayor." This is even more the case since none of the others appear to have the stomach to go after Ford. Mayor Circus Clown should be getting his gigantic ass kicked on a regular basis here, and it's downright surreal that nobody is willing to bite the bullet and do that.

 

[Greg Banks]

You can't win a three-way race with <30% of the vote.

There are 1,567,027 (approx iirc) listed voters in Toronto for the 2014 election....Voter turnout at 60% will be approx 940,022 therefore 30% of that is 282,064.....so R Ford has to poll even less than what I originally envisaged in the rest of Toronto

 

[OSS 117]

"Trials and tribulations" seems to be Ford's cliche of the week. It's like he can only memorize one at a time.

 

[VTB]

David Nickle ‏@DavidNickle 18m
My colleague points out Pennachetti's speech was a better speech about the City of Toronto than any mayoral candidate has yet done. #TOpoli

+100!

He should be running for mayor!

 

[animatronic]

There are 1,567,027 (approx iirc) listed voters in Toronto for the 2014 election....Voter turnout at 60% will be approx 940,022 therefore 30% of that is 282,064.....so R Ford has to poll even less than what I originally envisaged in the rest of Toronto

2010 turnout was 814k of which Ford captured 383.5k. What's the lowest number of votes he needs? Assuming similar turnout this time around and a tight three-way race, the minimum possible is about 33% which would be approx. 269k. It's probably safe to say that Ford won't be picking up any new fans, so he needs to hold onto over 70% of his 2010 support. In a two-horse race + spoiler (i.e., one of Tory or Chow implodes) you will need over 40%, which means he needs to hold 85% of his 2010 support base. Really hard to see how Ford can pull that off, particularly the latter.

 

[basic]

Does anyone see Socknaki staying in until the end? I think he'll pull out close to the date as the anyone but Ford camp coalesces around one candidate.

 

[L23]

Does anyone see Socknaki staying in until the end? I think he'll pull out close to the date as the anyone but Ford camp coalesces around one candidate.

That's my thought too. He's gained no traction, has no charisma, his policies are centre-right which is the same position as Tory, it's costing him money, and he has no chance of breaking out of his 2-4% or so support. He'd have to be an idiot to continue knowing all that, which would put the lie to his supposed great fiscal ability and intellect.

 

[casita]

What no one is talking about but is a very real thing are the number of people who will vote for Ford but won't admit it. There are lots of these people.

How many will give their nose a plug and vote thug?

I posit that we start explaining to ford fans that a win will surely kill him.

That would make him a martyr to FN, and put Doug and Mikey next in line. An heir and a spare.
https://twitter.com/doug_ford_eyes/status/504642487185858561/photo/1
View attachment 31986

"Mayor Rob Ford falsely denies hiking user fees, defends police paid duty."
https://twitter.com/StarGTANews/status/504660897097580545/photo/1
View attachment 31985

I think she made Robbie blush!

I bet Ari Goldkind could "tear him a new one" in a debate.

 

[John_Dee]

Does anyone see Socknaki staying in until the end? I think he'll pull out close to the date as the anyone but Ford camp coalesces around one candidate.

If anything, I thought Stintz would be selfish and egotistical (and desperate) enough to hang on until the end. I'm genuinely surprised she had enough sense to recognize plain reality, and bow to the inevitable. Socknacki should do the same, as he's just a distraction by this point, and he's not going to gain any more traction than he has.

I'd say the same about Thomson, but she's just a joke candidate, so it doesn't much matter what she does.

 

[L23]

If anything, I thought Stintz would be selfish and egotistical (and desperate) enough to hang on until the end. I'm genuinely surprised she had enough sense to recognize plain reality, and bow to the inevitable.

I think with Stintz it was lack of money that did it - she isn't that rich, and didn't get that much from her supporters. Socks is in the same boat, except he's been able to pour his own money in the pit.

 

[Bebop17]

I mentioned the Silver book long ago, most people ignored me and that's exactly why I pegged Ford at 14.7%.

That's the second reference of the night to RoFo being pegged - someone please pass the mental floss.

 

[sublime]

As I mentioned last week the Star has first release of Forums Polls at this time...I also mentioned there wouldn't be "smiling eyes" if that poll had R Ford's popularity increasing...Could it be that The Star has asked for a repolling taking into consideration Stintz's announcement... Forum's polls seem to be released in three to four week intervals and the last poll was released Aug 2 so the I would have expected a new release somewhere between Aug 25 and Sept 2....unless of course Ekos or Ipsos was looking to make a splash considering they haven't been heard from in almost a year....

Hmmm. By which I mean to say thank you for your thoughtful posts.

 

[r937]

This is even more the case since none of the others appear to have the stomach to go after Ford.

at last night's WISC debate (soknacki, baskin, goldkind), ari let fly a couple choice remarks about ford's stupidity, without ever using his actual name

and ari can get quite passionate when you get him on a roll about what's wrong with the current mayor/council

however, the tenor of the evening was one of adult discussion

 

[Kat_YYZ]

I think the main problem is that we appear to be watching history repeat itself. As it was last time, the two main alternatives to Ford are showing themselves to be unpalatable to say the least. This is a major - and unpleasant - surprise since Tory and Chow, you'd have thought, would be far preferable to Whatsisname and Whozit from the last election...but Chow's campaign thus far has been downright insipid, and Tory's a pompous windbag of a loser who inspires no confidence at all...

Really? What is unpalatable about Chow and Tory? You know that word means "intolerable, can't stand it, yuck!" -- sounds much more like a word for Mayor Cracky McDrunkard.

Tory and Chow ARE much more preferable to Ford's previous opponents. And Ford is much LESS appealing to soft middle voters who in 2010 thought "well... why not cut some waste? It couldn't hurt, we'll try it for 4 years. How bad could it be? It's only municipal level, anyways, no big deal." Well, now they know how bad it can be!

Yes it's too bad that Chow's campaign lacks energy and enthusiasm, but there's still time. The batch of people who voted for Ford last time just to "try it" and not because they are Ford Nationites don't want to do it now, all that needs to be done is to determine which opponent is the front-runner 2 weeks before the election and then channel all our energy into getting those people to go out and vote for that candidate (they weren't going to vote for Ford anyways, but we don't want them to go the apathy route and just stay home on voting day).