Doug can only really damage his campaign if he does something to alienate Ford Nation in its current form. His real problem is that he's boxed in - if he tries to grow beyond current Ford Nation, that growth will come at the expense of equal or worse portions of current Ford Nation. Right now, he (and Rob) appeal somewhat to fiscal conservatives, but far more to angry or scared people - angry homophobes, angry racists, angry immigrants, angry conservatives, angry Scarberians, and everyone angry at government. Those angry people feel that they finally have someone that they can support, who will put their objects of anger (LGBTQ, people of colour/religion/anyone different, Canadians holding them back, Liberal left, the rest of TO, and those damn bureaucrats) down. If Doug tries to move beyond those angry people, they will feel betrayed, and his solid block isn't so solid.
So Doug has to be the way he was this week - he has to play defence with his supporters, because any new growth is too risky.
If anything, Ari may turn out to be Doug's best hope - the smart, shiny new object that attracts people who (like me) would otherwise park with Tory as the strategic vote. Chow isn't doing it - she's not drawing votes away from Tory. Doug can't. (Have a look at IHTWOMRF and 43 Down - they're on a full-scale assault on Tory and anything at all moderate. They also sound like they know they're going down, and are doing it with their heads held high. They ain't taking no changes from Fordlandia now.) But, can Ari be Nenshi, but not good enough, in 22 days? Can Ari be the guy to move up to 20 percent, drop Tory to 27 and Chow to 23, and .....
There's a horrible thought to end Sunday night, isn't it?
But Ari is more of a creature of social media than anything else, right? Right?