[nfitz]

Not that it matters much in the Sheppard corridor context where the projected demand is well below 15,000; but generally speaking, that 15,000 pphpd threshold is pretty useless.

It's very useful. It allows you to toss out things quickly that are only 2,000 or 5,000 at the busiest point (let alone the terminus!)

Let's assume that the projected peak demand in Corridor X is 12,000; what are we going to build in that corridor? A subway does not meet our criteria, but a surface LRT cannot handle so much demand. Tunneled / elevated LRT? But it costs almost as much as a subway.

Surface LRT should be able to meet 12,000. That's about a 3-car LRT every 120 seconds - or once a traffic light cycle. But that's getting close to the upper limit without grade separation.

If 12,000 was the number, I'd seriously consider subway grade separation. It's hard to evaluation though without seeing what line we are talking about.

I think, the practical threshold to switch from LRT to subway (or mini-subway / RT) is about 10,000. Otherwise, we would have to conclude that demand in the 10,000 - 15,000 range is not suitable for any node, and must be ignored

Or perhaps we start looking at 4-car LRT. Or putting flyovers at major intersections (which is essentially what is happening on Eglinton, which will be grade-separated at both Don Mills Road AND Kennedy Road - neither of which was strictly necessary.

 

[BurlOak]

At the risk of sounding Fordian, that RTES (thank you for that link, quite interesting) clearly shows the Sheppard East extension should be prioritized as it met the criteria laid out.

It also shows that Eglinton and Spadina to Vaughan are not priorities.

 

[johntauren]

Because multiple studies HAVE been done.

TTC eliminated this from consideration back in the 2001 RTES that lead to the prioritization of the Spadina extension, and the eastern extension of the Sheppard Line. This western extension however was so poor, it was eliminated from study, unlike better options like the Eglinton subway, the SRT extension, and the Bloor extension to Dixie.

It was eliminated for the following reasons, and I quote:

• As Downsview Station is already served by the Spadina Subway line, only one additional station is possible (Bathurst) and this station has only limited development potential.
• Demand for rapid transit is considerably higher east of Yonge Street in comparison to west of Yonge Street. The growth of the North York City Centre does not depend on a westerly extension of the Sheppard Subway line and consequently a westerly extension is considered lower priority in comparison to further easterly extensions.
• The high capital cost of such an extension is not matched by high ridership or re-development potential.
• Population and employment growth in the corridor is projected to be low.
• Densities in the area are projected to be below the threshold for implementation of rapid transit.
• The opportunities for feeder bus savings and commuter parking potential are considered to be low.

What has changed since then that would make it worth reconsidering? The Sheppard East extension ranked much better, and even this is too low for subway.

If nobody uses it, why is the ridership per kilometre higher than almost every surface route the TTC has?

It's been 13 years since that study.
The Spadina extension to York University and Vaughan might give reason for a Sheppard extension westward to Downsview.
196 Express might might be planned to be retired with the opening of the new extension (I recall it being stated over twitter during one of their town halls many years ago, but I couldn't find it now, that could have changed also) The extension certainly makes most of the route redundant.

 

[Dan416]

I think the eastern extension to Vic Park is certainly warranted already, and the extension west to link up to the Spadina line is worth re-looking at, maybe after the extension to Vaughan opens.

 

[Markster]

My long-term hope is to link Sheppard East with the Vaughan extension, to get a 17km long line across the top of the city.

Coupled with the Sheppard East and Finch West LRTs, that gives a 33km long line of continuous higher-order transit, connecting 3 GO stations, 2 subway lines, 3 Post-Secondary Institutions (...almost), and several major shopping districts.

Is this a bigger priority than the DRL? No. But I'd put it roughly in the 40-year horizon. Sooner with a real transit funding strategy.

 

[nfitz]

My long-term hope is to link Sheppard East with the Vaughan extension, to get a 17km long line across the top of the city.

Presumably that means that the Spadina line would terminate at Downsview, and the Sheppard Line would go to Vaughan.

Does that make sense? The ridership on the new extension of the Spadina line is certainly going to be lower than the rest of Line 1, but aren't there likely to be more riders starting up north heading downtown, rather than to Sheppard-Yonge?

 

[Rainforest]

I am thinking of a somewhat different solution:

In the short / medium term, building street-median BRT on Sheppard East, and running mixed-traffic express bus on Sheppard West (after the Spadina extension opens, #196 can be routed from Yonge all the way along Sheppard West). That creates a relatively fast route across the north of the city, although with 2 transfers (BRT - subway - #196 express).

Finch LRT will be a separate line in that scenario (first Finch West, then getting extended along Finch East).

In the long term (30+ years), the Sheppard corridor can be revisited. If the forecasts still do not support a full-fledged subway, then perhaps a mini-subway can be built (like Vancouver's Canada line, but with higher capacity limit, perhaps up to 15,000 or 20,000 per direction). Route in the east: existing Sheppard subway tunnel, extended under Sheppard, then STC, Centennial, UofT Scarborough, Kingston Rd, Pickering Town Centre. Route in the west: Downsview Stn, Wilson Stn, Etobicoke North GO Stn, Pearson airport. The stop spacing can be wider than on subway lines (2-3 km on average, although the existing Sheppard stations will be retained). The fare can be by distance to limit the required operational subsidy.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

There's no need for BRT on Sheppard West. The 84 Sheppard West is already very speedy. I've taken it several times when crossing to Yonge Line from Spadina Line

 

[Markster]

Presumably that means that the Spadina line would terminate at Downsview, and the Sheppard Line would go to Vaughan.
Does that make sense? The ridership on the new extension of the Spadina line is certainly going to be lower than the rest of Line 1, but aren't there likely to be more riders starting up north heading downtown, rather than to Sheppard-Yonge?

In the land of infinite operating dollars, they would interline and both run Downsview Park to Vaughan.
More realistically, the Sheppard line just needs to run to Finch West, to connect to the LRT. They built a wonderful crossover structure at Finch West, so it's a good turn-back point. People can change trains to go to York U.
My main point is that I think this is a more useful connection to the city than the oft-cited interline to send Sheppard trains south to downtown, which as far as I can tell, is only really useful as a North York Centre<->Yorkville shuttle.

 

[Rainforest]

There's no need for BRT on Sheppard West. The 84 Sheppard West is already very speedy. I've taken it several times when crossing to Yonge Line from Spadina Line

I did not propose a BRT on Sheppard West I proposed a mixed-traffic express bus on Sheppard West, and BRT on Sheppard East.

One can ask, why talk about BRT on Sheppard East, when LRT is funded. IMO, LRT will work too. But a BRT may have two advantages:

1) It is a lesser scale investment than LRT, therefore will be less of an obstacle to building higher-order transit in this corridor 30 years later.

2) There are options for branching this route. One branch would go to the Zoo, another would serve the eastern section of Sheppard Ave (the same bus can run in BRT west of Meadowvale, and continue in mixed traffic east of Meadowvale). Yet another branch can turn south, serve STC, UofT Scarborough, and join the Durham Pulse BRT along Hwy 2.

 

[nfitz]

In the land of infinite operating dollars, they would interline and both run Downsview Park to Vaughan.
More realistically, the Sheppard line just needs to run to Finch West, to connect to the LRT. They built a wonderful crossover structure at Finch West, so it's a good turn-back point. People can change trains to go to York U.

Interlining makes sense for areas where you have lots of traffic. Interline through downtown, and branch in different directions in the burbs. Interlining through the lowest-use section of Line 1 makes no sense, nor would I think there'd be the capacity on Line 1 to support it, where they are already planning to fully utilize the capacity south of Finch West.

Running to the transfer point at the Downsview Park GO station might make sense - but you'd still need to run a double set of tracks, as you can't be running a Line 1 train every 2 minutes, and then add in a Line 4 train every 6 minutes (or less, given the likely lack of demand west of Yonge).

I'd think a better solution in an infinite world would be to keep running west from Allen/Sheppard (Sheppard West station aka Downsview Station) under the airport to an additional station at Sheppard/Jane and then north on Jane to Jane/Finch to intersect the LRT. Why run 2 lines together, instead of running them in different places.

My main point is that I think this is a more useful connection to the city than the oft-cited interline to send Sheppard trains south to downtown, which as far as I can tell, is only really useful as a North York Centre<->Yorkville shuttle.

And the main question it leads to, is what would be the ridership. I have a hard time thinking that it would even be the existing 5,000 an hour on the Sheppard subway, west to Yonge in AM peak.

There's no need for BRT on Sheppard West. The 84 Sheppard West is already very speedy. I've taken it several times when crossing to Yonge Line from Spadina Line

Indeed it is! But it's not a particularly busy route. But the 196B only runs 10 times an hour in AM peak (compare to the over 30 times an hour on the 196A branch from Downsview to York). That's only 530 riders per hour. Even if you add in the 86 Sheppard West, it only has 14 buses an hour - 750 riders per hour.

Ideally, you'd be looking at 15,000 or so to consider subway. Surely, you'd need at least 5,000. At 750 riders an hour you don't need much more than one 4-car subway train an hour. Assume that demand triples because of the convenience of subway - you can run one every 20 minutes. Sure, I'd expect it to go up somwhat ... but I'm not seeing the demand. And honestly, I'd expect most of it would be getting on at Bathurst.

As Pasternak pushed the TTC to actually study the feasibility of the "North York" relief line, perhaps we'll see some estimated numbers for subway ridership - which should be similar if the service terminated at Downsview or ran through to Vaughan.

 

[Markster]

Interlining makes sense for areas where you have lots of traffic. Interline through downtown, and branch in different directions in the burbs. Interlining through the lowest-use section of Line 1 makes no sense, nor would I think there'd be the capacity on Line 1 to support it, where they are already planning to fully utilize the capacity south of Finch West.

Indeed, it would require a change of plans. Likely re-instating the turn-back at St. Clair, and only having Vaughan-bound trains every 4 minutes north of there. As everyone is so fond of saying, the Vaughan extension is going to be relatively low ridership. Downtown-bound trains are not needed every 2 minutes. Riders at Finch West would trade a Downtown-bound train every 2 minutes for a Downtown-bound train every 4 minutes and a Scarborough-bound train every 6 minutes.

I'd think a better solution in an infinite world would be to keep running west from Allen/Sheppard (Sheppard West station aka Downsview Station) under the airport to an additional station at Sheppard/Jane and then north on Jane to Jane/Finch to intersect the LRT. Why run 2 lines together, instead of running them in different places.

Well, I never assumed infinite capital funding! My idea would be the minimum extension possible to provide a direct link between the Finch West and Sheppard East LRTs, while also taking advantage of the existing infrastructure on both Sheppard and the Vaughan extension.

And the main question it leads to, is what would be the ridership. I have a hard time thinking that it would even be the existing 5,000 an hour on the Sheppard subway, west to Yonge in AM peak.

The idea being to create a relatively seamless route across the city that will actually draw long-haul riders, which are the bread and butter of filling those ridership quotas. Turning back Sheppard trains at Downsview Park breaks this. You'd be better off just finishing the Finch LRT to Yonge, making people do the 2 stop transfer between lines, and call it a day, leaving the city still effectively split at Yonge.

Again, I don't consider this to be a terribly burning priority. But 10 years after the two LRTs are complete, something to connect the two will likely be called for.

And for the love of god, just use cut-and-cover.

 

[ehlow]

Are there really that many people traveling from fairview mall or stc to York u or Vaughan??

 

[nfitz]

Indeed, it would require a change of plans. Likely re-instating the turn-back at St. Clair, and only having Vaughan-bound trains every 4 minutes north of there. As everyone is so fond of saying, the Vaughan extension is going to be relatively low ridership. Downtown-bound trains are not needed every 2 minutes. Riders at Finch West would trade a Downtown-bound train every 2 minutes for a Downtown-bound train every 4 minutes and a Scarborough-bound train every 6 minutes.

I fail to see what's being gained here. Ridership between Sheppard and Sheppard West isn't particularly significant. And I don't see the why one would sacrifice service on the much busier Spadina line to accomplish something that seems more like some line-drawing fetish than a advance in transit. Wouldn't something like branching the Spadina service just north of Sheppard West, so half of 2/3 goes to Vaughan and 1/2 or 1/3 goes down Sheppard make more sense, if one wants to achieve better connectivity?

And for the love of god, just use cut-and-cover.

What, to make things more expensive? The subway tunnel isn't a particular high expense - about 40 million or so per kilometre for TBM. If you go shallow, you have to excavate the entire road, completely rebuild it, and have to deal with huge utility issues. If you are heading down a major street, it's cheaper to tunnel underneath. Cut-and-cover might make more sense if you were instead to tunnel under a parallel minor street.

 

[Markster]

What matters are the people traveling from "anywhere on the Finch LRT or Vaughan Extension" to "anywhere on the Sheppard LRT". Right now, those people are almost certainly driving on the 401. Sending Sheppard trains south on the Spadina line does nothing for them, or for anyone who would get a faster trip by changing trains to the Yonge line anyway.

I'm perfectly happy to wait 15 years, and see how things are shaking out.