[ssiguy2]

The same can be said of RER.

So far all anyone knows is that it is just a more frequent GO service and nothing more.

No one knows the fares {which is crucial to it's success}, where the stations will be, if there will be fare integration, how often they will run, or even the type of trains they will use. All that is known now is a bunch of educated guesses.

They don't even know the projected ridership or even if the system is needed. If they believe that ST will only carry 27,000 passengers a day serving a far more heavily populated area with more stations and frequency of 10 minutes or better then RER will be a cataclysmic failure. Also remember that Metrolinx has shown a very bad record of forecasting projection with the UPX being the stellar example. Also with the price point of UPX and Metrolin's idea that people don't care about fares but will take it due to it's service level doesn't bode well for the fares they will be setting. Metrolinx has always seen GO as a 905 service and has never shown any interest in serving Torontonians {as proven by the grotesque differences fares when compared to km travelled} and if RER is just a glorified GO service, then this could be equally useless.

ST maybe a fuzzy concept but no more than RER is.

 

[robmausser]

First time I've heard it being explained this way. I don't think even Tory would describe it like that, because to be quite frank, no one knows what the hell it *really* is. It's this ever evolving entity that takes on a new form every couple of months.

It's literally in the Initial Business case.

The GO RER program, and particularly plans for GO RER within the City of Toronto, sets the context for SmartTrack. SmartTrack proposes utilizing the GO network to provide a more urban transit service than originally contemplated with GO RER. In February 2015, Toronto City Council directed the City Manager to carry out a SmartTrack workplan and requested that Metrolinx include a number of SmartTrack elements in GO RER. SmartTrack includes a number of components including new stations, TTC fares, TTC service integration, frequency improvements on the Kitchener and Stouffville corridors, as well as an LRT along Eglinton Avenue West to the Mississauga Airport Corporate Centre and Pearson Airport. Page 5 The SmartTrack proposal triggered more intensive consideration of the potential for GO expansion within Toronto to improve access for residents and greater connectivity of the transit networks.

http://www.metrolinx.com/en/docs/pd...0160628_BoardMtg_Appendix_3_SmartTrack_EN.pdf

 

[steveintoronto]

ST maybe a fuzzy concept but no more than RER is.

RER is also fuzzy, but far less so. Reams of documentation is extant. Can't say same for SmartTrack. It's a bit like discussing the fiscal difference between a Neurotic and Psychotic, both are built with imagination and money that isn't extant.

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

From the SmartTrack/RER Integration business case.

Option C = 7-8 new stations (including Gerrard, Don Yard, Liberty Village, St. Clair West, Lawrence, Ellesmere, and Finch)
Option D = 4-5 new stations (including Gerrard, Don Yard, Liberty Village, and St. Clair West)

Here is how Options C and D compare in ridership and overall time savings:

and attached is the capital costs of Options C and D:



The Business Case Analysis overall favors Option D for GO-RER.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Wow, this thing will have a whopping 14,000 riders per day. That's even less than previous estimates. 40 our surface routes move more people per day than this billion dollar plan; SmartTrack will move little more people than the average bus route in this city. What a disaster.

Bus routes more important than SmartTrack:
7 Bathurst
511 Bathurst
506 Carlton
505 Dundas
32 Egg West
39 Finch East
36 Finch West
100 Flemigdon Park
37 Islington
35 Jane
41 Keele
43 Kennedy
504 King/508 Lakeshore
45 Kipling
47 Lansdowne
54 Lawrence East
52 Lawrence West
58 Malton
102 Markham Rd
129 McCowan North
116 Morningside
63 Ossington
501 Queen
86 Scarborough
85 Sheppard East
84 Sheppard West
510 Spadina/509 Harbourfront
512 St Clair
53 Steeles East
60 Steeles West
24 Victoria Park/224 Victoria Park North
68 Warden
89 Weston
165 Weston Rd flows
96 Wilson
95 York Mills
196 York University Rocket

 

[steveintoronto]

Wow, this thing will have a whopping 14,000 riders per day. That's even less than previous estimates. 40 our surface routes move more people per day than this billion dollar plan; SmartTrack will move little more people than the average bus route in this city. What a disaster.

Interesting, albeit I'm definitely in favour of RER (Whatever SmartTrack is we know not yet), but to make your case believable, (and your claims are very interesting) we need to see a reference.

Although you haven't mentioned it, your case applies far more to the Scarborough Subway, but please produce the source and methodology of your numbers.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Toronto Transit Commission (2012). Surface Ridership 2012:
https://www.ttc.ca/About_the_TTC/Transit_Planning/Surface_Ridership_2012.jsp

The 14,000 SmartTrack ridership per day was found from Wisla's image above. (5.1 Million riders/year)*(1 year/365 days) = 13,973 riders per day.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

To put this all in perspective, the $1 Billion Line 4 Sheppard Subway moves 50,000 riders per day - this is the same Sheppard Subway that's widely panned as the most wasteful infrastructure spending in the history of this city.

SmartTrack, which will costs $700 Million to $1 Billion, will move only a quarter of the people that the Shepard Subway does. SmartTrack looks to be by far the most poorly utilized major public transit infrastructure relative to costs in the history of our city.

Council needs to have some sanity and cancel this thing. This is a terribly wasteful "investment".

 

[Burnt creek]

They don't even know the projected ridership or even if the system is needed. If they believe that ST will only carry 27,000 passengers a day serving a far more heavily populated area with more stations and frequency of 10 minutes or better then RER will be a cataclysmic failure. Also remember that Metrolinx has shown a very bad record of forecasting projection with the UPX being the stellar example. Also with the price point of UPX and Metrolin's idea that people don't care about fares but will take it due to it's service level doesn't bode well for the fares they will be setting.

I, quite frankly, dont buy the projected numbers that always get thrown around. How did "they" ever come up with that number. Projections are just that, projections. Unless we have read the whole report: We dont know what they are basing it on, what their inputs variables are, what their assumptions are and finally, nobody can predict the future. Its very easy to come with any kind of number you want someone to come up with. And those with agendas (political, personal, financial) will do just that, come up with numbers to support thier agenda.

So i would rather go by what we do know. And that is that: ST connects the two or three busiest work locations in the toronto. Some say the dwntwn and airport areas of the GTA have the largest number of employers and are the busiest in all of canada. Do we need numbers to tell us that? I dont, you just need to see it for yourself. Just hop on the 401 and go see around the airport area during rush hour periods. Do the same on the subway at King and st andrews stations. Since rush hour produces by far the largest transit volumes, its pretty obvious that a competively priced and integrated transit service like ST is needed for those areas.

Ps.: forgot that ST will no longer go directly to airport area. That final stretch will be LRT. But my point still stands. It will in the end still connect the major employment centres though indirectly.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I, quite frankly, dont buy the projected numbers that always get thrown around. How did "they" ever come up with that number. Projections are just that, projections. Unless we have read the whole report: We dont know what they are basing it on, what their inputs variables are, what their assumptions are and finally, nobody can predict the future. Its very easy to come with any kind of number you want someone to come up with. And those with agendas (political, personal, financial) will do just that, come up with numbers to support thier agenda.

So i would rather go by what we do know. And that is that: ST connects the two or three busiest work locations in the toronto. Some say the dwntwn and airport areas of the GTA have the largest number of employers and are the busiest in all of canada. Do we need numbers to tell us that? I dont, you just need to see it for yourself. Just hop on the 401 and go see around the airport area during rush hour periods. Do the same on the subway at King and st andrews stations. Since rush hour produces by far the largest transit volumes, its pretty obvious that a competively priced and integrated transit service like ST is needed.

Is it 1994 again? People were saying the same thing about Line 4 Sheppard Subway

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Anyways it's reasonably simple to verify these people projections independently. There was some discussion about about that a few months ago in this thread.

The problem with SmartTrack is that the RER travel time isn't as competitive with Line 2 and 1 as people assume.

Then there's the inconvinent transfers at Kennedy and Union, both which involve a lot of waking. Furthermore, the long waiting time of SmartTrack (average 7.5 mins) adds additional penalty to the option.

Using data from the TTC's quarterly Service Summary, we can calculate travel times to and from the Core from various points in Scarborough. You'll then discover that SmartTrack, with all its transfer related delays, low frequencies and travel speed, is only time competitive with Line 1 and Line 2 for trips with destinations in the immediate vacinity of Union Station.

Then there is also SmartTrack's fare premium.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

It's also worth noting that City Planning and Metrolinx have independently done ridership modelling for SmartTrack, and their results were consistent with these new projections.

 

[Burnt creek]

Is it 1994 again? People were saying the same thing about Line 4 Sheppard Subway

The sheppard line runs along neighborhoods of tiny strip malls a hospital and ends at a midsized mall(Fairview). Do i need projections, studies and other numbers to tell me that a line that short is not going to produce huge ridership numbers? I dont.

There is no fortune 500 company headquartered along the sheppard line. Thats pretty obvious.

 

[steveintoronto]

Master: You make a compelling case, albeit I find the claims hard to believe. There's some factor missing, perhaps peak surge. Anyone else have figures or can dispute these claims? I'll dig later to see what I can find, but if Master is correct...this changes everything. Perhaps the comparison, as Burnt implies, is not linear?

Quick Google shows this for comparison:
"Already the 504 streetcar carries 60,000 passengers a day — one third more than the Sheppard subway line" Other hit shows: "The King streetcar is the busiest of the TTC’s surface routes. Every weekday, some 60,000 passengers use the line, making it more crowded than the Scarborough RT and Sheppard subway combined."

To be continued....

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Master: You make a compelling case, albeit I find the claims hard to believe. There's some factor missing, perhaps peak surge. Anyone else have figures or can dispute these claims? I'll dig later to see what I can find, but if Master is correct...this changes everything. Perhaps the comparison, as Burnt implies, is not linear?

Westbound peak hour ridership for SmartTrack was 6,039 passengers. However, note that this assumes TTC fares, and 22 stations. We're now down to 13 stations in total, and it's highly improbable that this will be operating on a regular TTC fare. Unfortunately, no new peak hour ridership numbers have been released since January; there has only been updated daily ridership figures. But I'd guesstimate between 2,000 and 4,000 peak hour passengers. This will be highly sensitive to what exactly the fares are.

Toronto City Planning (January 2016) SmartTrack Ridership Forecasts, Release 1, Summary Report: https://www1.toronto.ca/City Of Toronto/City Managers Office/Intergovernmental Relations/Files/PDF/SmartTrack Ridership Forecasts Report.pdf