k10ery
Senior Member
When TTC is about $3 per passenger?
Hard to swallow. Perhaps Inneptis rather than Neptis.
How perfectly appropriate that you can't spell inept.
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- Thread starter aquateam
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How perfectly appropriate that you can't spell inept.
nfitz
Superstar
Uh ... it was a ... oh whatever ...
k10ery
Senior Member
Here's another way to think about it. TTC subway operating costs are $3.75 per car revenue kilometre. UPE's costs have got to be lower than that - way fewer stations per revenue kilometre - and they are above ground. (Though yes DMUs probably cost more to operate than subway cars.)
UPE is running 160 trains a day on 25 km of revenue track, 365 days a year as you said. Let me guess trains will average 2.5 cars. That's 3.65 million car revenue kilometres per year. So if they are exactly as efficient as TTC subway, then their operating costs will be $13,687,500 per year. What Neptis said.
It should be clear - there's nothing surprising in what I said. UPE is running a technology a lot like a subway. It's going to cost about the same as a subway to operate. Ergo, IT SHOULD BE PRICED LIKE A SUBWAY
Last suggestion: that $68 million figure in the news articles is probably operating plus capital cost. Metrolinx is committed to covering operating plus capital cost from the farebox, so that's the number they would be using. Then somebody who does not know what "operating cost" means probably repeated it and labelled it incorrectly.
This makes sense: $500 million in capital and 11% amortization gets me to $68 million as annual total cost.
k10ery
Senior Member
nfitz speechless! Do I get a prize for that?
mdrejhon
Senior Member
Amortization.
That would square the numbers nicely. But operating cost percentage and amortization percentage would be unknown at this time, as Metrolinx docs does not seem to break this down at this time. I have to concede you might be right about amortization, but the operating cost is still almost definitely higher than Neptis estimate. But I have been so far unable to find another excuse other than amortization to fill up the rest all the way to $70M. This is where the trail goes cold in Metrolinx documents. Amortization solves this puzzle, if that is it.
Still, if the numbers are correct, UPX will be operating-profitable at under 20 percent passenger utilization, excluding amortization. If the $70M does, in fact, include amortization. The "UPX will fail" Naysayers will be even more stunned that UPX, not only profitable, quickly pays its own capital costs in less than 10 years. Envy of rest of North America, even if we should have made it a subway fare. A more negative view, may be that inflated UPX operating cost is hidden profit as a kind of slush fund to cover other project cost overruns on other projects. A more positive view is, if including amortization, then UPX is a far more self-sufficient service than I, myself, even thought it was, as a new $50M+/year cash cow that speeds up Metrolinx "cheap fare" expansions (more LRTs and GO improvements).
We need to keep a hawk eye on future UPX financials for the real story.
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k10ery
Senior Member
I spoonfed you the numbers. If you think they're wrong you have to say why. Your spidey sense just won't do.
nfitz
Superstar
Operating costs have been reported. In last 35 years of GTA transit, I don't think any agency has ever included amortization of capital costs before. To suggest that Metrolinx have calculated costs, without any basis for doing so except for numbers that your pulling out of your imagination without any references is farcical.
To seriously suggest that the Union Pearson train has a lower operating cost per passenger than a suburban bus route with similar ridership challenges does indeed leave one speechless on how anyone could possibly conclude that, given the order of magnitude different in costs and personal.
k10ery
Senior Member
You ignore the substance of my calculations and the strong intuition behind them. You resort to the passive voice, vague generalizations, and some gratuitous insults. nfitz trolling at its best.
I'm not surprised. From what I've seen, you're not very good with numbers, and you know absolutely nothing about finance or economics. But when you find yourself speechless, why not act accordingly, and just shut up?
nfitz
Superstar
The substance of your calculations is beyond bizarre. And I cannot even begin to comprehend an intuition that can come close to conclude that a transit system run with diesel trains, station attendants, lots of operating staff, would cost the same amount per passenger than a suburban bus route that carries a similar ridership.
You comment that I've ignored the substance of your calculations. Quite frankly, I've dug back in this thread, and I can't actually find your calculations. You simply reference your calculations elsewhere (but fail to link to it) and Neptis. But who'd ever take Neptis seriously after their publicly ridiculed error-filled December 2013 Big Move review by Michael Schabas who was clearly ignorant of some of the subjects he was opining. Who did this Neptis review on the UPX?
The best proof of course that your wrong is that when challenged, you resort to personal bullying and name-calling! LOL!
And then double-down on bullying and name-calling. If someone makes a comment so astoundingly wrong and inconceivable that I find it speechless I should shut up? You know what else makes me speechless? People trying to claim that the USA blew up the World Trade Center towers themselves, using numbers. Should I shut up about that too? The numbers might look tempting, but the conclusion is not conceivable and defies intuition.
k10ery
Senior Member
My calculations are in post 799. Your ridiculous claim that you can't find my calculations is in post 805. So it turns out not only that you cannot add and you cannot spell, you also cannot read?
Definitely stick to the 9/11 conspiracy theories, that's more your speed. There's no doubt lots of internet forums where you can indulge in that. Why not go check them out?
Definitely stick to the 9/11 conspiracy theories, that's more your speed. There's no doubt lots of internet forums where you can indulge in that. Why not go check them out?
TOareaFan
Superstar
What is the foundation of 11% amortization?
nfitz
Superstar
There's nothing in post 799 - perhaps you mean post 798?
I did read those "calculations". But further up you'd said they were elsewhere, so I thought you had something real somewhere, and this was just an alternate way of looking at it.
The entire basis of your "calculations" is that taking TTC subway operating costs for 1 car of a 6-car train and scaling it? There's real numbers out there ... there's no reason to reinvent the wheel.
If you want to look at it simply - everyone would surely agree that operational cost for a rail line which only carries a few thousand people per day is going to be higher than a bus line carrying the same number of people. Yet TTC averages over $3 a trip in cost.
Please be civil. Just because everyone has pointed out the failings in your numbers doesn't entitle you to name-calling and bullying.
k10ery
Senior Member
nfitz, I'd block you, but you post so much people are always quoting you so I'd still have to read your words. So do us both a favour, and block me. I don't have your problem with logorrhea.
Tone it down guys.
nfitz
Superstar
A good example today of how SmartTrack isn't going to provide much relief to the Danforth line. With a complete lack of any 501, 502, 503, or 506 streetcars heading east for about 20 minutes this morning, I found myself on a 506 heading into Main Station to catch the subway. And I realised that I should be able to catch the Stouffville 8:46 AM train at Danforth, and save a few minutes.
Well the streetcar seemed to take forever on a light, and I ran into the station, to see the train arriving on the far platform. I got to the train with the doors closed, and it left. Oh well, I thought ... the next Lakeshore train is at 8:55. When I checked the boards, it was running about 20 minutes late ... so nearly a half-hour wait. So I walked up to Main station, and caught the subway anyway. But now I was sweating from running ... and hacking away for the next half-hour on crowded subways and streetars as I should know better than running with a cold.
Few are going to get off a subway train that's going to get them most of the way downtown, to transfer at Main station even if it might sometimes save them a few minutes. One in hand is worth two in the bush.
At the same time I'm pondering grabbing one of those $60 GO stickers next month. I think I'll be using GO from Danforth to Exhibition at least 8 times next month, perhaps 10. The cost is $60, but $51 after the tax credit. So the pay-off is 10 GO rides. Probably not worth it even then though ... unless I end up making more trips than I plan to.
Well the streetcar seemed to take forever on a light, and I ran into the station, to see the train arriving on the far platform. I got to the train with the doors closed, and it left. Oh well, I thought ... the next Lakeshore train is at 8:55. When I checked the boards, it was running about 20 minutes late ... so nearly a half-hour wait. So I walked up to Main station, and caught the subway anyway. But now I was sweating from running ... and hacking away for the next half-hour on crowded subways and streetars as I should know better than running with a cold.
Few are going to get off a subway train that's going to get them most of the way downtown, to transfer at Main station even if it might sometimes save them a few minutes. One in hand is worth two in the bush.
At the same time I'm pondering grabbing one of those $60 GO stickers next month. I think I'll be using GO from Danforth to Exhibition at least 8 times next month, perhaps 10. The cost is $60, but $51 after the tax credit. So the pay-off is 10 GO rides. Probably not worth it even then though ... unless I end up making more trips than I plan to.