bump this old thread...from today's Globe & Mail (my highlights)...
Property Report: OUTLOOK: OFFICE SPACE
Inflated values, but without the bubble
Office sector's fundamentals are so stable that it's considered an attractive investment vehicle, observers say
TERRENCE BELFORD
Special to The Globe and Mail
January 8, 2008
Ask Tom Farley, president of Brookfield Properties Corp.'s Canadian operations, what he thinks 2008 holds for the office market and his words resound with confidence: "In my 30 years' experience, I have never seen the fundamentals as strong as they are now."
It is an opinion shared with almost every mover and shaker in the industry.
"I think 2008 is going to bring us great new opportunities," says Paul Finkbeiner, president of GWL Realty Advisers Inc., with a 30-million-square-foot office portfolio.
Yes, the U.S. credit crunch has spread to Canada, but those being affected are land- lords who have overleveraged their borrowing, or buyers that have counted on mortgage financing well above a 75-per-cent debt-to-equity ratio.
"Earlier this year, we were outbid for many deals. But now those groups that bought with greater than 75 per cent financing are finding that they can't afford them," Mr. Finkbeiner says. Things turned around in the fall and "we have started getting those deals again."
Wayne Barwise, senior vice-president of office development for Cadillac Fairview Corp., says that if you need a sign of the times, just look at the office construction under way or in the planning stages. That happy combination of low vacancy rates and high demand means that landlords can now get enough in rent to justify building once more.
"The exciting part is the new projects are all 21st century technology. They are almost all LEED-certified, green buildings," he says, referring to the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design program. "They may cost 5 to 7 per cent more to build, but they deliver 30 to 50 per cent savings on things like energy use."
In fact, Cadillac Fairview has about 3.5 million square feet in office developments going up across Canada with projects in both Toronto and Calgary, and GWL is sitting on a 600,000-square-foot project at 18 York St. in Toronto that is ready to go once it inks a deal with a major tenant.
"Like everyone else, we won't proceed these days until we are substantially preleased," Mr. Finkbeiner says.
Perhaps most important for landlords, brokers, agents and investors is that there is rock solid confidence in Canada's commercial real estate markets, says Paul Morse, head of Cushman Wakefield LePage's national office leasing practice.
"That is a really important factor," he says. "There is very little wheeling and dealing and no feeling of 'let's just wait until the bubble breaks.' There is no bubble. This has become a stable, professionally managed industry and, as a result, there is great confidence in it as an asset class among capital markets and investors."