[CBBarnett]

Re: Ontario

Ontario's numbers are huge but important to throw an asterisks on all this analysis with some per capita measures and longer term trends. Per capita, the territories, Saskatchewan & Manitoba have a far more significant out-migration pattern than Ontario for many years, and remain so. International immigration to Ontario offsets interprovincial losses 15 times over.

I posted a few interprovincial migration graphs below. What jumps out to me is actually how consistent Ontario's numbers actually are. Remarkably, ins/outs have stayed to about 20 - 30,000 a year on a population of 15 million. The fact that Alberta's inter-provincial ins/outs are often larger in absolute magnitude than Ontario, despite having less than 1/3rd the population is revealing about our economy.

The other thing that surprises me is absolute interprovincial migration isn't really changing much over 20 years despite a much larger Canadian population. Yes, some years are higher than others, but the total amount of movement looks to be hardly moving for most provinces. I would have thought migration per capita would likely stay constant, instead it seems absolute migration is staying relatively constant (meaning per captia it's decreasing as our populations grow).

Ontario:

Alberta:

BC:

 

[Surrealplaces]

Ontario's numbers are huge but important to throw an asterisks on all this analysis with some per capita measures and longer term trends. Per capita, the territories, Saskatchewan & Manitoba have a far more significant out-migration pattern than Ontario for many years, and remain so. International immigration to Ontario offsets interprovincial losses 15 times over.

I posted a few interprovincial migration graphs below. What jumps out to me is actually how consistent Ontario's numbers actually are. Remarkably, ins/outs have stayed to about 20 - 30,000 a year on a population of 15 million. The fact that Alberta's inter-provincial ins/outs are often larger in absolute magnitude than Ontario, despite having less than 1/3rd the population is revealing about our economy.

What stands out for me is the 4 year trend from 2018-19ish up to now. It's steeper than in any period in the past, and this year the ratio of out to in looks noticeably higher than most years. Unless the housing situation changes quickly, I suspect the trend for Ontario won't change soon.

 

[Surrealplaces]

The numbers are exciting, and hold some interesting potential. From the numbers we see a large amount of younger people moving here, many of whom would be looking for multi-family housing options (rent and condo both). With the current pricing on SFH's and interest rates where they are, we might see the biggest multi-family housing boom ever for Calgary.
In the past, big numbers like this would have meant a few more Tuscany's would get added to the city's outskirts, but now it could mean a large amount of new multi-family in established areas. A lot in new areas also, but no doubt a lot in established areas.

 

[artvandelay]

I was a little skeptical of whether the market would be able to absorb all of the new multi-res rental coming on-line at once (WVT, Eleven, BLVD, Upten, Oliver etc.), but these projects are hitting the jackpot with lease-ups exceeding the highest of expectations.

I do think we will see a lull in new projects over the next few months as developers navigate our new high interest rate environment, but I do think we will see activity shift back to the condo market as new projects come on line. I wouldn't be surprised if we are in a condo boom by the end of next year - but making predictions for this market is never a bright move!

 

[JesseLikesCities]

Now I'm even more excited to see Calgary's next census numbers.

Edit: https://www.avenuecalgary.com/city-life/toronto-to-calgary-move/

Thought I'd add this article to my post as it fits the current topic. Another former GTA'er content with his decision in moving to Calgary. I like this article in particular because there is no negativity in it.

 

[Patrick.1980]

The numbers are exciting, and hold some interesting potential. From the numbers we see a large amount of younger people moving here, many of whom would be looking for multi-family housing options (rent and condo both). With the current pricing on SFH's and interest rates where they are, we might see the biggest multi-family housing boom ever for Calgary.
In the past, big numbers like this would have meant a few more Tuscany's would get added to the city's outskirts, but now it could mean a large amount of new multi-family in established areas. A lot in new areas also, but no doubt a lot in established areas.

You’re spot on when it comes to multi-family. It has been trending that direction for a while, but these numbers will boost that trend even more.

 

[Silence&Motion]

All I can say is ouch for Ontario, this is brutal. It seems the exorbitant cost of housing has really hit hard. Not only that, I read that the largest demographic of people leaving is the 20 to 29 age group.
View attachment 446920

Ontario grew by almost 800k in the last census! No one there is paying attention to interprovincial migration.

 

[Atticus]

Ontario grew by almost 800k in the last census! No one there is paying attention to interprovincial migration.

That's because the last census period was from 2016-2021, and inter-provincial migration was on the positive side for all 5 of those years, but has trended sharply downward in the past two years. Ontario has been growing overall these past two years, and probably will until the next census in 2026, but only due to international immigration. Those who aren't paying attention are foolish.

 

[Chinook Arch]

I’m sure Ontario will bounce back in interprovincial migration. They seem to go up and down on a regular basis. We also have to remember that Ontario is by far the biggest landing place for international immigrants. Their movements are quite fluid when they first arrive as they haven’t set roots. They’ll move to where the jobs are at the time, and I bet a significant number of the people leaving are newly arrived immigrants.

 

[Surrealplaces]

Ontario grew by almost 800k in the last census! No one there is paying attention to interprovincial migration.

Agreed, there's probably not a lot of attention to it right now, but I think they should be paying attention. If the issue is high priced housing, and all indicators seem to point that way, it could be a longer term trend until housing costs are under control. A year or two of heavy negative interprovincial migration isn't a big deal, but it could be if it goes for a long period. Especially considering the largest amount leaving were people in their 20's and 30's.

I haven't really followed the housing situation too closely, but curious if there are any plans by the province to deal with it?

 

[Silence&Motion]

The reason it's so expensive to live in Ontario is because so many people move there and the population keeps growing. There are ways to lower the cost of multi-residential units, but there's no solution to lowering the cost of single family houses. There's not enough land left in southern Ontario to make a noticeable dent in supply of SFHs.

As @Chinook Arch mentioned, Ontario is the main gateway to Canada for new immigrants. It makes sense that as more and more people move there, some of them will spill out into other provinces.

I bet New York City had a net outflow of domestic migration in the late 19th century, but no one would interpret that as being a problem for the city (it was probably a benefit).

 

[YourBoy007]

The reason it's so expensive to live in Ontario is because so many people move there and the population keeps growing.

This is exactly why we need to end our mass immigration policies immediately. It has been causing a plethora of problems to the Canadian economy and our society. No country that cares about their citizens would do this. No country that respects itself would do this.

 

[FriendlyDrunks]

This is exactly why we need to end our mass immigration policies immediately. It has been causing a plethora of problems to the Canadian economy and our society. No country that cares about their citizens would do this. No country that respects itself would do this.

So a lot to unpack here but there are numerous reasons for an increase in housing prices, as compared to inflation. Beside the demand for housing increasing due to population we should also keep in mind the increasing wealth inequality. But it seems to me the largest reason we continue to see such increases is the commodification of housing from a place to live to a place to invest.
There's a lot more to this and don't really want to get in it now, but I wouldn't be so quick to blame immigrants, especially considering all the statistical data showing they are typically more productive, less prone to crime and not to mention necessary considering falling birth rates.

Anyway, Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year mate.

 

[UrbanRED]

This is exactly why we need to end our mass immigration policies immediately. It has been causing a plethora of problems to the Canadian economy and our society. No country that cares about their citizens would do this. No country that respects itself would do this.

Please explain why, in 2020, a year with functionally no immigration, house prices exploded. Stop the fear-mongering, NIMBYism has a lot more to do with home prices exploding than immigration

 

[YourBoy007]

Simple supply and demand. I'm curious if you guys think it's all win-win with mass immigration -- that there's 0 downside, 0 disadvantages, 0 problems that come with mass immigration.

Opinion: No, immigration is not some magic pill for saving the economy

‘When all you have is a hammer, all the world’s a nail’ appears to capture Canada’s immigration policy

www.theglobeandmail.com