[CBBarnett]

We need it to cool down, growth is good, this is too much.

Understanding that these are estimates, it would be interesting to have a model that describes a bit more detail about where these 95,000 people actually went (i.e. new housing v. existing, more roommates, more babies, move into vacant apartments that were just empty, what areas of the city actually saw the growth etc.)

 

[Surrealplaces]

Here's a graph of recent data of housing starts vs population growth. Population growth being July to July and housing starts being June to June. Just for kicks I'm going to go back a few years to see how the two paths go, but in the last couple of years we can see population growth take off relative to housing starts. 2024 housing starts are a projected average based on the last two quarters of 2023 and Q1 of 2024.

 

[Nawads]

Keep in mind, according to the stats 36% of Calgary's growth was from temporary international residents (students, foreign workers etc.) which the Canadian government has promised to reduce by at least 1/3 for the next two years. So we may see one more big year (juily 2023-2024) before the new rules kick in, but after that I expect a couple years closer to the 50K mark again.

 

[DougB]

My question is, do we want to continue growing at this rate when our infrastructure capcity and housing affordability are beginning to erode? 7 years ago during an oil recession, these numbers would have been exhilarating, but in 2024 amid an affordability crisis, these numbers give me anxiety.

Seems to be holding up much better than during the 2003 - 2007 boom, probably because commercial and oil and gas construction were sucking up so many resources then. I was in Calgary last week, traffic is still nowhere as bad as previous booms.

 

[DougB]

Keep in mind, according to the stats 36% of Calgary's growth was from temporary international residents (students, foreign workers etc.) which the Canadian government has promised to reduce by at least 1/3 for the next two years. So we may see one more big year (juily 2023-2024) before the new rules kick in, but after that I expect a couple years closer to the 50K mark again.

View attachment 566096

Many of those on temporary visas will leave as will some recent immigrants. The Canadian economy is nowhere near as attractive as in the past. Calgary probably won't experience as much retrenchment as it didn't attract near as many student visas. I suspect places like KW and Toronto will loose large numbers of people on student visas. Also, I could see the trend of interprovincial migration continuing to Alberta as ON and BC stand next to no chance of addressing housing affordability and will likely need to impose significant tax hikes to.cover deficits.

 

[ssiguy2]

Calgary is the talk of the town over in skyscrapercity. A person from Calgary is now on the forum and people were truly excited to have a Calgarian rep and are very eager to find out what's going on in your fair metropolis. It would be great if some of you guys came back.

 

[potatopizzafan]

Calgary is the talk of the town over in skyscrapercity. A person from Calgary is now on the forum and people were truly excited to have a Calgarian rep and are very eager to find out what's going on in your fair metropolis. It would be great if some of you guys came back.

Can you post a link of where the discussion is happening? Im not familiar with that forum

 

[Surrealplaces]

Understanding that these are estimates, it would be interesting to have a model that describes a bit more detail about where these 95,000 people actually went (i.e. new housing v. existing, more roommates, more babies, move into vacant apartments that were just empty, what areas of the city actually saw the growth etc.)

Same chart but going back to 2010. Interesting to see that housing starts don't fluctuate very much, but population growth really does. It adds to the theory that in high growth times there are probably a number of newcomers staying with friends and family, or finding roommates. When things settle down they move out on their own.

 

[Roaring Flames]

Calgary is the talk of the town over in skyscrapercity. A person from Calgary is now on the forum and people were truly excited to have a Calgarian rep and are very eager to find out what's going on in your fair metropolis. It would be great if some of you guys came back.

Lol I didn't even know that site was still functional

 

[Mountain Man]

I've been posting on there a tiny bit, think there are maybe 5 Calgary posters over there now lol.

 

[Surrealplaces]

I'm predicting Calgary will have taken about 53% of the population growth, with Edmonton around 34% and ~15% for the rest of the province.

Another slice of the data:

• 86% of Alberta's total provincial growth is in Calgary (52%) and Edmonton alone (34%).

Not to toot my own horn, but I'm going to toot my own horn My prediction back in March was pretty darn close.

 

[darwink]

Many of those on temporary visas will leave as will some recent immigrants. The Canadian economy is nowhere near as attractive as in the past. Calgary probably won't experience as much retrenchment as it didn't attract near as many student visas. I suspect places like KW and Toronto will loose large numbers of people on student visas. Also, I could see the trend of interprovincial migration continuing to Alberta as ON and BC stand next to no chance of addressing housing affordability and will likely need to impose significant tax hikes to.cover deficits.

BC is doing much better in this respect. That being said August and September is going to be a real test with another round of international students arriving depending on the outbound flows of ending post graduate work permits. (The government is going to be under huge pressure to extend, especially for now families with Canadian children).

BC at least has a different long term outlook than Ontario, without as much of a late surge in students, and with far more structural reform on housing supply wise.

 

[ssiguy2]

I screwed up !!!! .............................I said skyscrapercity and I meant to say skyscraperpage which is sort of the mother website of this one.

There has been little conversation about Calgary on the forum as most have left but we have a new one and people are really excited. I truly mean that as people personally welcomed him onto the forum and were very pleased to have an Albertan on the forum. People over there are eager to here about what is going on in Calgary & Alberta in general but we have only one new forum member from the area and nearly all of our once Alberta forumers have sort of disappeared over the last few years. We all miss our Albertan friends and really want our discussions to reflect the entire national perspective.

I know that the ads directed at Canadians say "Alberta is calling" but on skyscraperpage forums it's directed at Albertans saying "Canada is calling".

 

[Tarsus]

I screwed up !!!! .............................I said skyscrapercity and I meant to say skyscraperpage which is sort of the mother website of this one.

There has been little conversation about Calgary on the forum as most have left but we have a new one and people are really excited. I truly mean that as people personally welcomed him onto the forum and were very pleased to have an Albertan on the forum. People over there are eager to here about what is going on in Calgary & Alberta in general but we have only one new forum member from the area and nearly all of our once Alberta forumers have sort of disappeared over the last few years. We all miss our Albertan friends and really want our discussions to reflect the entire national perspective.

I know that the ads directed at Canadians say "Alberta is calling" but on skyscraperpage forums it's directed at Albertans saying "Canada is calling".

I went to the Canada section not too long ago and the hate against Calgary/Alberta/The west has dampened but mostly due to not many Calgarians/westerners posting. The bulk of posters are mostly the same people from east of Ontario, and to be honest I don’t think they want to hear from us. Definitely not if it’s anything positive.

Thanks for the invitation though, it’s too bad there aren’t more people like yourself in the Canada section.

 

[Mountain Man]

I went to the Canada section not too long ago and the hate against Calgary/Alberta/The west has dampened but mostly due to not many Calgarians/westerners posting. The bulk of posters are mostly the same people from east of Ontario, and to be honest I don’t think they want to hear from us. Definitely not if it’s anything positive.

Thanks for the invitation though, it’s too bad there aren’t more people like yourself in the Canada section.

The hate for Calgary and Alberta is why I stopped posting in the Canada section a few years ago. I recently started posting there again and people seem a lot more civil these days.