DougB
Active Member
I'll be surprised if the existing Green Line finishes even close to on time or on budget given other cities' experiences of late (ex. Valley Line in Edmonton, Eglinton Crosstown in Toronto).
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- Thread starter kora
- Start date
kora
Active Member
I know. But better to avoid the boondoggles that have beset Ottawa. I think Stage 2 needs to get finished quickly rather than waiting until the 2040s
CBBarnett
Senior Member
When Green Line finally gets rolling, it'll be critical to start building a phased program to keep building out all the lines and extensions so construction never stops - not just Green Line but everything transit-related. Keeps the momentum and project expertise activated and forces a much needed paradigm shift on Transit and the city to start being more aggressively focus on the future, planning and expanding the system with service improvements all over the network. It's a mindset change that can come from an ongoing focus on system expansion rather than only focused on cost-effective operational tweaks alone.
Habanero
Active Member
not to toot my horn too loudly, but I was pretty close for two of the cities. Let’s see how the other cities shake out.
Habanero
Active Member
It’s wild to see Edmonton have by far their biggest growth year ever and still be left in the dust by Calgary. A difference of 24k is likely the biggest disparity ever.
And if Foothills part of the CMA it was be more like 26k difference.
DougB
Active Member
The first stage might take until the 2040s if it proceeds Eglinton Crosstown style.
DougB
Active Member
The number for Vancouver and Kitchener seem high given the number of people leaving ON and BC.
An economist is predicting 84K for Calgary: https://calgaryherald.com/business/...00-health-care-social-assistance-workers-2023
Tarsus
Active Member
Is the 70K an accurate number for Calgary? There seems to be all kinds of numbers floating out there, and the 70 K is only from the conference part of Canada report, which nobody seems to have access to.
I’m still gonna wait for stats can estimate numbers to come out, and I think they’ll even be higher than 70K.
I’m still gonna wait for stats can estimate numbers to come out, and I think they’ll even be higher than 70K.
darwink
Senior Member
From the Conference Board report:
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They also forecast 2 million for the CMA by the end of 2028.
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- The city attracted record net in-migration of 62,700 people in 2022 and is estimated to have broken that mark with roughly 71,200 newcomers in 2023.
- Such inflows lifted Calgary’s population growth to a record 4.0 per cent in 2022 and an estimated 5.0 per cent in 2023. This unsustainable pace will cool to 3.1 per cent in 2025 and to near 2 per cent annually in 2026–28.
They also forecast 2 million for the CMA by the end of 2028.
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MichaelS
Senior Member
So is that number just the net in-migration then, and doesn't include natural increases (births/deaths)? If so, I can see adding a few more thousand. Insane.
Part of the confusion is the timelines. The Conference board report is for the calendar year of 2022, whereas the statscan numbers are for July - July. When we see the statscan estimates for July 2022, they won't be the same as the conference board numbers, but either way, Calgary is exploding, and growing much faster than its counterparts, Ottawa and Edmonton. You see see this reflected in housing starts as well.
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...and speaking of housing starts. Calgary is continuing where it left off in 2023, except that it was higher than usual #2 Vancouver. Not it sure if it's a trend or a blip, but it's the 2nd time in the last 3 months that Calgary was higher than Vancouver. Toronto is big man on campus as usual. nobody's going to knock Toronto off that perch anytime soon. Edmonton and Ottawa quite low for some reason, likely just an abirritation.
| City | Single Family | Semi-detached | Rowhome | Apartment | Total | ------ | ----- | ----- | ----- | ----- |
| Toronto | 281 | 6 | 384 | 3334 | 4005 | |||||
| Calgary | 487 | 112 | 249 | 1103 | 1951 | |||||
| Vancouver | 121 | 68 | 105 | 1169 | 1463 | |||||
| Montreal | 63 | 10 | 20 | 1104 | 1197 | |||||
| Edmonton | 242 | 82 | 102 | 257 | 683 | |||||
| Ottawa/Gatineau | 93 | 18 | 26 | 264 | 501 | |||||
| Winnipeg | 99 | 12 | 47 | 112 | 270 |
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Urban Outdoorsman
Active Member
What I appreciate seeing in those numbers is a much healthier distribution of housing types. Toronto and Vancouver are almost entirely apartments whereas Calgary has a good mix of housing types i.e. the "missing middle"
UrbanWarrior
Senior Member
That could be where the 84,000 total number came from. If so, that’s completely insane. 84,000 people in a year,
I've had the same thoughts looking over these housing start stats. We all love apartments and density, and such, but I'd rather live in a city where there are still multiple types of housing being built. Today's Montreal or Vancouver where it's apartments only isn't good housing diversity, just like the Calgary of past times where it was only single family homes. That wasn't good housing diversity.