[Albertasaurus]

Wow the Ottawa scenarios really are bleak. Wtf is that about? Waterloo RM + Guelph will be coming up on 1.4 million by that time, maybe more. Nipping right at Ottawa’s heels. Crazy to think.

Then there’s potential for Quebec City-Levis to hit 1 million by that time, but the only two that seem to be in the bag are Winnipeg and Waterloo.

Those Ottawa numbers do seem a little low to me. It might come down to an aging population? Also being near Toronto and Montreal, Ottawa tends to get overlooked, and doesn't seem to draw as many immigrants as the other big cities.

 

[Surrealplaces]

Ottawa's didn't make sense, even adding Gatineau with it, it wasn't much higher than today's CMA numbers. I don't believe the maps are apples to apples, as the Ottawa map might not have been the updated Ottawa CMA. I didn't take the time to go through and figure it out, but a quick look showed the maps to be similar, but not exactly the same.
That said, there are some things to consider for sure. One is that Ottawa has a much older population than Calgary. The other is that the high tech industry there has been stagnant. Government jobs while increasing nationally haven't been increasing at the same rate in Ottawa. If Edmonton will be 600,000 to 800,000 behind Calgary, It wouldn't surprise me to see Ottawa around 300,000 to 400,000 behind Edmonton by 2049.

 

[Surrealplaces]

One item about the decline in oil and gas jobs. Edmonton, was where a lot of the field workers seemed to live. It is those jobs that have declined as a bit of faster pace as automation and initial buildout of projects have progressed.

Agreed. There was a post from I think @ByeByeBaby where he had rough numbers for jobs directly and indirect related to oil and gas for both cities, and Edmonton had a lower percentage, but not a big difference, and if I recall both cities were declining at maybe a similar rate. Calgary tends to lose a lot of jobs due to mergers, etc.. or efficiency changes such as moving HO staff to Houston, while Edmonton's would be tied to general decline in production, or via automation.

 

[Beltline_B]

Ottawa's are quite low considering the CMA is around 1.5 Million today. I do think Ottawa's growth will be slower than Calgary and Edmonton, but I would expect Ottawa to be somewhere around 2-2.4 Million by 2049. With immigration slowing down they won't see the 40K growth they saw last year, but will probably average closer to 20-25K per year in the coming years.
2049 is a long ways off and predictions can be a long ways off, but I'm confident the top 6 metros will be in the same order, expect for Ottawa, which I expect to be #6 in the future.

 

[UrbanWarrior]

Just to think… Alberta started the century with no metros over 1 million, and before the halfway point there’s a high likelihood we’ll have 2 metros of 2 to 3 million.

 

[kora]

Ottawa's didn't make sense, even adding Gatineau with it, it wasn't much higher than today's CMA numbers. I don't believe the maps are apples to apples, as the Ottawa map might not have been the updated Ottawa CMA. I didn't take the time to go through and figure it out, but a quick look showed the maps to be similar, but not exactly the same.
That said, there are some things to consider for sure. One is that Ottawa has a much older population than Calgary. The other is that the high tech industry there has been stagnant. Government jobs while increasing nationally haven't been increasing at the same rate in Ottawa. If Edmonton will be 600,000 to 800,000 behind Calgary, It wouldn't surprise me to see Ottawa around 300,000 to 400,000 behind Edmonton by 2049.

Ottawa's immigration numbers have been catching up to those of its peers in Calgary and Edmonton. In 2025, they are actually on track to exceed Calgary's (slightly) and Edmonton's (by a large margin - several thousands), for the first time I can remember. Ottawa has always been a low immigration town. No longer.

 

[Surrealplaces]

Ottawa's immigration numbers have been catching up to those of its peers in Calgary and Edmonton. In 2025, they are actually on track to exceed Calgary's (slightly) and Edmonton's (by a large margin - several thousands), for the first time I can remember. Ottawa has always been a low immigration town. No longer.

Are recent stats? Not disagreeing with you, but curious to see what the numbers look like.

 

[kora]

Are recent stats? Not disagreeing with you, but curious to see what the numbers look like.

CMA stats for new permanent residents, year to date (Jan - Sep 2025):
Ottawa: 20,015
Calgary: 17,850
Edmonton: 14,285

Source:
Canada - Permanent Residents by Province/Territory and Census Metropolitan Area (CMA)

Permanent Residents – Monthly IRCC Updates - Open Government Portal

People who have been granted permanent resident status in Canada. Please note that in these datasets, the figures have been suppressed or rounded to prevent the identification of individuals when...

open.canada.ca

 

[Surrealplaces]

Thanks Kora. It'll be interesting to see how the trends go. It's hard to get a good idea of a 25 year prediction from an 8 month trend. As well a lot of Calgary's growth has been strong inter-provincial numbers and a strong (relative to the other metros) natural increase. How immigration numbers look for Ottawa compared to Calgary or Edmonton over the next 2-3 years could give us a better idea if it's a trend or a blip.

 

[kora]

Thanks Kora. It'll be interesting to see how the trends go. It's hard to get a good idea of a 25 year prediction from an 8 month trend. As well a lot of Calgary's growth has been strong inter-provincial numbers and a strong (relative to the other metros) natural increase. How immigration numbers look for Ottawa compared to Calgary or Edmonton over the next 2-3 years could give us a better idea if it's a trend or a blip.

Ottawa's numbers exploded post-pandemic.

Here's a cumulative list of new permanent residents from Jan 2015 - Sept 2025
Calgary: 229,345
Edmonton: 183,280
Ottawa: 163,045

 

[darwink]

Its all a bit murky due to permanent versus non-permanent residents, and how arrivals (and conversions of long term NPRs) will change over the next decade. I don't think we can accurately predict or account for how this happened or will undo itself.

Spoiler: More about students some people might be interested in

Right now and for the next several years (until 2031), there is going to be significant conversion of non-permanent residents to permanent residents, who were admitted as international students previous to September 2024. 7 years at the long end, (4 years of education, 3 years of post-graduate work permit) means the longest tenure nprs converting in that category first arrived in 2018 (some longer, there is a not insignificant number of international students taking high school too). Those who don't achieve permanent residency will leave. Students are more tied geographically to where they went to school. Ending this pathway could cause a reversion back to arrivals in big cities and then spread later. Departures might not be proportionate to NPR population.

 

[Mountain Man]

Calgary is a big player in Western Canada. Its influence spreads far and wide. Here in Victoria, the Calgary connections are extraordinary and widespread across industries. Calgarians moving and visiting here, Calgary companies operating here, Calgary consultants working here, etc. Edmonton is just not part of the conversation.

Did you move to Victoria?

 

[Dkeirle]

Thanks Kora. It'll be interesting to see how the trends go. It's hard to get a good idea of a 25 year prediction from an 8 month trend. As well a lot of Calgary's growth has been strong inter-provincial numbers and a strong (relative to the other metros) natural increase. How immigration numbers look for Ottawa compared to Calgary or Edmonton over the next 2-3 years could give us a better idea if it's a trend or a blip.

Agreed, looking only at permanent residence over a short period doesn’t really give you the whole picture we need to look at all facets.
Calgary has had the best numbers of the three cities when it comes to interprovincial migration and natural increase, not just for the past year or so but over the past decade or longer.
That said, the numbers for Ottawa in that stats can prediction chart don’t look quite right. I think I would put Ottawa at around 2.4 maybe 2.5 million by 2049.

 

[Dkeirle]

Ottawa's numbers exploded post-pandemic.

Here's a cumulative list of new permanent residents from Jan 2015 - Sept 2025
Calgary: 229,345
Edmonton: 183,280
Ottawa: 163,045

One of the reasons I’m bullish on Calgary’s growth for the next 25 years is that it’s a well mixed balance of growth types and has been consistently strong for the last 20 or 30 years. Ottawa will be OK, and I’m thinking they’ll be higher numbers than what’s predicted in those charts from stats can but I still bet that Calgary will continue to be the biggest of the three metros.

 

[kora]

Did you move to Victoria?

Yes moved to Victoria in 2025