[Bentley]

In answer to your first question "which has more credibility" I would answer neither. I don't put much stock in either economists hired by an industry or investors moving herd-like.

As for your second question I think that it is generally recognised that the current economic crisis is the result of the massive default of HIGHLY LEVERAGED investments such as derivatives and credit default swaps that has lead to the downfall of almost all the major investment banks on Wall Street. The slump in realestate prices was the trigger that set off this house of cards.

I think you meant to say Collateralized Debt Obligations. CDOs were the highly leveraged securities. Credit Default Swaps were basically a form of insurance to protect against default of these risky assets. They played a role, but are not to be confused with CDOs which are the "toxic assets" that we keep hearing about today.