TRONto
Active Member
His point was that electric will be much cheaper than ICE. That's why driverless +BEV is the secret sauce.
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- Thread starter kEiThZ
- Start date
TRONto
Active Member
63.7% Transport in 2012.
Breakdown of oil consumption by sector | GlobalPetrolPrices.com
(Published October 7, 2015) It is widely known that crude oil has many applications – in industrial, energy, and chemical products, in agriculture, for shipping and for personal and business travels, to name a few. Some sectors, however, demonstrate unquenchable thirst for petroleum...
Surprisingly I see 70% for transportation in the US.
TRONto
Active Member
Alberta won't have an oil industry left well before 2030.
mdrejhon
Senior Member
As much as there are supporters & detractors of the Innisfil Experiment (Uber as transit), the calcululs changes quite a bit when those vehicles become driverless.
Especially when combined with vanpools (to alleviate traffic issues of multiple cars going to the same destinations).
Fixed-route infrequent large buses are arguably undesirable for the Innisfil case -- while at the same time individual manned ICE Uber vehicles are also (pollution, inefficiency, traffic, and, well, Uber itself)
A potential happy Innisfil equilibrium would be a fleet of drivereless BEV's of various sizes (including shortbus sized ones for frequently-carpooled routes -- to the town core, to the GO station, to schools, etc).
Gotcha.
Capital-cost wise it's more expensive (cost of driverless AI + cost of BEV with similar range as gas)
Operating-cost wise, it's cheaper (sometimes a LOT cheaper)
But yes, it amplifies driverless+BEV... People rather pay the operating costs when capital costs go up and operating costs go down.
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crs1026
Senior Member
The one does not guarantee the other.
There is a risk that if EV’s fall in price to the degree he predicted, people who don’t own a vehicle today might buy one. One-car Families might buy one per family member. We don’t want that.
Driverless certainly leverages lots of things. One good example is the “last mile” issue we have with GO Transit. Eliminating the driver would hugely change the economics of transit buses. That might enable small vehicle and on-demand services that aren’t viable today. But the pace of development of the two technologies may deliver one much sooner than the other.
- Paul
lenaitch
Senior Member
If/when EVs make the big breakthrough, an issue that will have to be discussed is taxation. Right now, so-called 'road tax' is part of fossil fuel pricing, but it is not with electricity. Regardless of the power source, roads will still have to be maintained.
MisterF
Senior Member
The difference is that renting a car is just as expensive as owning one. Renting a car for a week in Toronto will cost you, at a bare minimum, $200. Over a year that's $10,000+. Tony Seba is predicting that using automated, electric fleet vehicles for your daily needs will become 10x cheaper than owning a car because of economies of scale and the nature of electric, automated vehicles.
Electric cars are cheaper to run not only because of the fuel savings, but also because they have a fraction of the moving parts that an ICE car does. They're inherently more reliable and long lasting, and theoretically able to go 10x the distance of an ICE car before end of life. They lend themselves to continuous use all day use (and fleet ownership) in a way that ICE cars don't. We haven't seen this in practice yet because electric cars are still so new.
What people seem to forget when they make these arguments is that humans are near useless at figuring out where they're supposed to drive in a snowstorm. I was driving down the 404 in a snowstorm last week and and nobody could where the lanes were. It was a gong show. It's not unusual for there to be hundreds of collisions across the GTA in a single storm. I'd hazard a guess that autonomous cars, with a range of sensors that can detect things that we can't, are much better at navigating snow and construction zones than humans.
A Tesla that you can buy today is already 9x safer in autonomous mode than a human driver and the technology is improving significantly every year. I really do think that we'll see a future in our lifetimes when humans controlling vehicles is illegal because of the danger. Driving will be seen as a relic of a reckless past. Our grandchildren will laugh at us when we tell them about the death traps we used to get around in. Driving will become a niche activity the same way that horseback riding is today.
Oh don't get me wrong, I was in no way implying that demand for oil will drop to zero. The amount of products, processes, and types of transportation with no imminent replacement for oil means that there will be demand for oil for the foreseeable future. But the oil in the Alberta oil sands is very expensive to extract and it relies on oil being at a certain price for the cost to be worth it. If oil prices permanently drop to the levels predicted, the Alberta oil industry is going to be hit a lot harder than other oil producing regions.
kEiThZ
Superstar
An example of the many issues that we aren't discussing at all. "But EVs are just 2%."
People are just clueless to how S-curve adoption works. I always tell people that if I told them in 1997, that in 10 years, for $700 they could buy a device that fit in their pocket, with faster speeds than most home internet connections, more processing power and storage than most home PCs, a GPS and a camera, they'd have laughed at me. If told them that in 20 years, almost every person they know would have one, they'd have laugh harder.
Electric cars just had their iPhone moment with Model 3. Because cars are a bit more challenging and US$35k is expensive in other countries, it takes a bit longer on the S-curve. By about 2025, every second new car buyer is not even going to consider a gas car. By 2030, there might not be that many gas car models left. There minute that EVs become a normal consideration for new car buyers, the realization will dawn that disruption has arrived. I think we're 3-5 years away from that at most. Which is why you see so many car companies panicking. What's weird is that not many oil companies are panicking yet.
kEiThZ
Superstar
In case anyone is interested, Tony Seba did an interview specifically focused on Canada:
electricautonomy.ca
It's really hard to convince folks. But it is worthwhile to watch the entire 1 hr presentation in the lead post. Don't just skim it.
"Disruption is Coming to Canada" - Tony Seba Interview | Electric Autonomy Canada
Tony Seba gives an alarm call to Canadian leaders with cautionary advice on government policy, ride-hailing networks and the impact of new mobility on jobs
electricautonomy.ca
It's really hard to convince folks. But it is worthwhile to watch the entire 1 hr presentation in the lead post. Don't just skim it.
ssiguy2
Senior Member
Self driving vehicles have a real future in terms of cargo and transport , delivery services, public transit, taxis, the disabled who can't drive, and the seniors who shouldn't be. For the wider population however, I think they are much ado about nothing because the entire concept proceeds from a false assumption...……….people don't like to drive.
The reality is that most people do like to drive and the freedom it gives them. Giving the finger to the guy who is tailgating you, honking at the moron who won't get out of the passing lane, considering a speed "limit" as nothing more than a suggestion, doing L.A. stops, running yellows, none of these thing will get you to where you are going significantly faster but we all do them all the same. Show me a person who says they don't do these things and I'll show you a pathological liar. I often think of my car the same way I think of my dog...…………….expensive and enough to drive me nuts but I love him to death regardless and I don't know what I would do without him.
People like "being in the driver's seat" and the fun and frustration that comes with it and AV will take that independence and sense of adventure to all the excitement of having tea on the couch at grandma's house.
The reality is that most people do like to drive and the freedom it gives them. Giving the finger to the guy who is tailgating you, honking at the moron who won't get out of the passing lane, considering a speed "limit" as nothing more than a suggestion, doing L.A. stops, running yellows, none of these thing will get you to where you are going significantly faster but we all do them all the same. Show me a person who says they don't do these things and I'll show you a pathological liar. I often think of my car the same way I think of my dog...…………….expensive and enough to drive me nuts but I love him to death regardless and I don't know what I would do without him.
People like "being in the driver's seat" and the fun and frustration that comes with it and AV will take that independence and sense of adventure to all the excitement of having tea on the couch at grandma's house.
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ssiguy2
Senior Member
As far as oil prices go, it is very hard to predict as oil, probably more than any other commodity, is very sensitive to the world's geo-political climate. All things being equal however, the price of oil will decline even more than it's level now due to falling demand as we move away en masse from the ICE.
Remember there is another issue that people often forget about oil that makes matters even worse for the oil patch...…….Venezuela. Venezuela use to be one of the world's largest oil exporters and now exports next to nothing yet prices are still low. Sooner {hopefully} or later, Maduro will be kicked out and the FIRST priority of any new government will to be to get those oil fields up and running again to bring in desperately needed foreign exchange, boost government revenues, and kick start the economy. If Albertans think the price of oil on the markets is low now, just wait till demand starts to plunge and simultaneously Venezuela begins to flood the market. The corresponding oil price collapse will make the oil sands completely uncompetitive no matter how many pipelines they build.
Remember there is another issue that people often forget about oil that makes matters even worse for the oil patch...…….Venezuela. Venezuela use to be one of the world's largest oil exporters and now exports next to nothing yet prices are still low. Sooner {hopefully} or later, Maduro will be kicked out and the FIRST priority of any new government will to be to get those oil fields up and running again to bring in desperately needed foreign exchange, boost government revenues, and kick start the economy. If Albertans think the price of oil on the markets is low now, just wait till demand starts to plunge and simultaneously Venezuela begins to flood the market. The corresponding oil price collapse will make the oil sands completely uncompetitive no matter how many pipelines they build.
lenaitch
Senior Member
I am not aware of any real-world experience or testing that says sensors are any better. No doubt there will be advancements, which will clearly outstrip human ability in adverse conditions because we seem to have peaked (or bottomed out, depending on your perspective). The levels of technology are likely different, but the 'lane keeping assist' and 'road departure mitigation' in my truck are completely useless on snow covered roads and even clear roads that lack full pavement markings.
There are different levels of autonomy. Full-on Level 5 autonomy will require vehicles to 'talk' to each other, and require widespread 5G networking. This will most likely emerge in urban areas but rural/remote areas will lag or simply not exist because it won't be profitable. Does this create two classes of operators? If life is to be lived entirely within an urban area or between urban areas, then an ability to know how to drive may no longer exist. If you own a cottage, like to hunt, fish, camp, antique, etc. out in the boonies, do we expect AVs to be able to navigate down windy bush roads? Does 'cottage country' cease to exist? Are operators expected to be competent in a complex skill they might exercise once or twice a year? So many social changes. In this regard, I'm glad I have more years behind me than in front.
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crs1026
Senior Member
I agree with you in the most part, but there is a threshold where driving becomes disincentivised. We have pretty much reached that point in our densest cities. Desnity directly discourages car use. There’s no “thrill of the open road” in heavy traffic!
People who were raised when roads weren’t congested are stubbornly driving as if speedy driving in cities is still possible. It isn’t, but we have not gone over the tipping point in "disruption" yet. The self driving car will be attractive as an alternative to all that mental wear and tear, and their more orderly approach to other vehicles might actually raise vehicle throughput on crowded roads.
I can’t get my head around not having a personal vehicle, though. Many (including me) use their car as a virtual toolshed and filing cabinet. Loading and unloading every trip would be a huge hassle.
Nor can I imagine using a self driving vehicle outside urban areas, given that most trips involve pullovers and stops in the most illogical locations. Check out how people park to access hiking trails, where there are frequently no paved parking areas. Will a self driving car be able to tell what’s too soft or muddy to park on and what isn’t?
- Paul
kEiThZ
Superstar
Wrong. This has nothing to do with liking or disliking driving. The argument here is that Transport as a Service (TaaS) would be 10x cheaper than personal ownership and operation of a gas vehicle. And that cost differential is what would create a disruption.
I really wish people would watch the presentation and read more. The issue is not so much what is there today. But the rate at which the technology is improving and at which costs are coming down. It’s always challenging discussing these topics in part because they just can’t imagine the changes scaling that fast. Heck, lots of engineers themselves routinely can’t believe the rates of improvement of what they work on. Imagine how difficult it is for the average Joe to conceptualize S-curve adoption and decaying exponential improvement rates.
By the way sensors are substantially better than humans. I know this because the system we have on aircraft let us do things like see through fog and heavy snow or rain and can guide your lumbering hundreds of thousand of pounds airliner to an accurate touch down within feet.
Now there’s definitely some unique challenges to migrating this tech to a vehicle. But a vehicle also let’s me install more sensors and more computing power. And rate at which AI and Machine Vision is improving means our current state of tech is basically obsolete by year-end.
kEiThZ
Superstar
What I find interesting isn’t so much the AI/Autonomy aspect. I find the cost curve of electrics most compelling. And we now have real data that Tony Seba is wrong. He’s underestimated cost reduction on battery pack prices. If this keeps up, EVs will be cost competitive with ICE cars on purchase price alone, by 2024. Forget even looking at operating costs.
Battery Pack Prices Fall As Market Ramps Up With Market Average At $156/kWh In 2019 | BloombergNEF
Battery prices, which were above $1,100 per kilowatt-hour in 2010, have fallen 87% in real terms to $156/kWh in 2019. By 2023, average prices will be close to $100/kWh, according to our latest forecast.
about.bnef.com
$200/kWh is considered to be the level at which EVs become competitive with gas cars.
I think there’s a very real possibility that we might see the bankruptcy of one of the Big 3 by 2025.